https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/russia-crisis-coup-prigozhin/674516/ A simmering political feud in Russia has exploded into a crisis. The head of a Russian mercenary army fighting in Ukraine alongside Moscow’s official military forces has declared war against the Russian ministry of defense, claiming that Russia’s war in Ukraine was all the result of a giant plot by defense bureaucrats to mislead Russian President Vladimir Putin into a pointless conflict.
I wonder what Putin's response will be, he's supposed to speak soon. If he's pragmatic I can see him actually capitulating to Prigozhin and make him the defense minister. This would set up an eventual transfer of power from Putin to Prigozhin. I mean, Putin came out of nowhere to assume power after Yeltsin, Prigozhin may be able to do the same. If he condemns Prigozhin instead then I guess fireworks will follow.
This actually could be bad for Ukraine. Prig attacking the core of Russian tactical incompetence. Not really sure who to pull for here. ....extra innings at this point?
Yeah, let them burn all their arms lol. With that said, this is a civil war, which will be different from the war in Ukraine. People generally don't resist till the bitter end unless it's a very ideologically or ethnically driven civil war. Since it's usually a power struggle, which this one appears to be, once the tide turns one way or another I'd expect to see a lot of defections. If Prig wants to win, IMO he needs to move quickly. If he gets bogged down then it's over for him. It won't be a fight like Bakhmut. From a political standpoint, it's much easier for Russians to surrender to Russians. From a military standpoint he's at a huge logistical disadvantage and has no air force. He needs to take Moscow and Putin ASAP.
Right now looking more to me like a coup d'etat than CW, but it's early. As for the military advantage, Wagner appears to have a pretty substantial cache of good will, while Putin's is on fumes. The fact that they skated into Russia speaks volumes. Putin has exactly one play here imo. Make peace w prig. ...Or he gone. Jmho/fwiw.
If it turns to be a full on mutiny or coup I don’t see how that’s bad for Ukraine. Unless it caused Putin to lash out irrationally, like a wave of indiscriminate attacks or even a Nuke, is that what you are saying? I’d agree with that concern, but as far as the tide of war, you’d think they’d have to focus much more assets internally - which takes their eye off Ukraine in the short term. Russian civil war is the best possible news for Ukraine short term. What that means longer term is anyone’s guess. But if it turned into a civil war, that could potentially end the Ukraine war very quickly.
Prigozhin had actually given Putin an off-ramp to get out of Ukraine while saving a little face. Putin could have confirmed he was lied to by his ambitious and treacherous military leaders, who have been removed from their positions and are awaiting balcony accidents, and that it has been confirmed Ukraine, to the extent it had ever had a Nazi problem, was now de-Nazified and that all other goals of the special operation were either met or weren't really issues at all.
Not really (bad for Ukraine), unless it creates a situation where Putin fires tactical nukes at Ukraine in desperation. It would take decades to root out the tactical incompetence of Russia's military leadership. And Prigo is no Gen. George S. Patton or Gen. Dwight Eisenhower. He's had some success in Bahkmut because he is willing to sacrifice some people on the front lines to get the enemy to reveal his position. That's not a good long-term strategy, and certainly does not make him a great military leader by western standards. He is only great in comparison to the incompetent military leaders in the Russian army. This is actually very good for Ukraine. Russian soldiers no doubt have heard about these events, and have to be distracted by them. It is a HUGE distraction. It's going to be difficult for them to be focused on their jobs for a while. They will all be gathered around their radios, cell phones, laptops, whatever, and not at their posts, watching for the enemy. Add in the fact that Ukraine owns the night with their western night-vision equipment, and we might see some major gains in the next few days. Another amazing coincidence: there won't be a full moon for another two weeks, so the battlefield will be unusually dark. It is also good for Ukraine that Wagner fighters have taken control of a town that is a logistical hub for Russian supplies. No weapons or ammo will go through that town for the time being. With the attacks on the Crimean bridge, it will be very difficult to deliver everything from ammo to food to the Russian troops. Troops will surrender if they do not get food and ammo delivered to them. This could create a breakthrough in the southern area, because all Ukraine needs is one area in the line of defense to surrender or abandon their posts.
Agree it’s an unqualified good. But I can foresee future events in which new Russian leadership becomes overly obsessed with restoring national “honor” re: Ukraine.
Russia has air control. If Wagner is just marching up the highway they should be easy pickings. Maybe drop a MOAB on their heads. BTW any reports as to the number of Wagner forces involved?
Putin is in the Ukraine War much deeper than to be able to walk out now, especially with this incident going on. Putin is an intelligence expert, and allegedly an expert in figuring out whether people are lying to him or not. He's not George W. Bush, where it is very credible that people were lying to him and he wasn't smart enough to figure it out. No one was "lying" to Putin--the Russian generals just severely underestimated Ukraine's military, and did not (for some reason) predict that western weapons would flow in. Deciding that the issues were not really issues also does not fit in with the narrative of Putin the all-seeing genius. Putin might have been able to end the war a week ago as you described, and he might survive it, although the people (and oligarchs) would be very angry that the economy was destroyed and they don't even have a grand victory to show for it. Doing it now would make him look very weak, and he would not survive very long. In short, it would be suicide for Putin (possibly literally). And rattlesnakes don't commit suicide.
Apparently, many Russian army inside Russia are flipping and joining Wagner. Putin has fled Moscow. The Wagner convoy is about 4 hours from Moscow.
