Again, they won't fall in a day, but it's happening and has been happening for a while now. I picked 2008 because the last members to join were in 2007. Membership has been the same since then except when UK exited. Since the graph didn't show a significant change equivalent to UK's GDP in 2020/21 I'm assuming that was factored into the trend. The fact that manufacturing is increasingly less of a role in European economies is a matter of major concern. In the event of a conflict, it's gonna be making things that makes a difference, not real estate prices, social media apps, or financial services.
2 smaller members joined since then. Forget who, but looked it up. But I disagree about the decline in any reasonable timeframe (given enough time, all will decline).
Hmm, I can't find the new members, only Romania and Bulgaria as the last ones in 2007. Anyhow, right on cue from FT: Subscribe to read | Financial Times Confirming the discrepancy in economic growth: "In 2008, the EU and the US economies were roughly the same size. But since the global financial crisis, their economic fortunes have dramatically diverged. As Jeremy Shapiro and Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations point out(opens a new window): “In 2008 the EU’s economy was somewhat larger than America’s: $16.2tn versus $14.7tn. By 2022, the US economy had grown to $25tn, whereas the EU and the UK together had only reached $19.8tn. America’s economy is now nearly one-third bigger. It is more than 50 per cent larger than the EU without the UK.” Talks about the impact of energy prices: "Unlike Europe, the US also has plentiful and cheap domestic supplies of energy. The shale revolution means that America is now the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. Meanwhile, energy prices in Europe have soared. The Ukraine war and the loss of cheap Russian gas mean that European industry typically pays three or four times as much for energy as their American competitors. Gloomy European bosses say this is already leading to factory closures in Europe." And how the services industry shines in contrast to the manufacturing industry, hallmark of deindustrialization: "Europe does outperform in “lifestyle” industries. Almost two-thirds of the world’s tourist arrivals are into Europe. The luxury goods market is dominated by European companies. Football, the world’s most popular sport, is dominated by European teams — although many of the biggest clubs are now owned by Middle Eastern, American or Asian investors."
Could have swore I saw too but it looks like it's just Croatia in 2013 Enlargement of the European Union - Wikipedia That's also cherry picking years. Those also a pretty tight convergence about 5 or 6 years ago. And they got hit by the economic crisis a lot worse not because they don't have as much manufacturing, but because they don't have actual fiscal Union. The Germans pretty much controlled interest rates and they're still overly obsessed about inflation. That's the biggest advantage we have, not an emphasis on manufacturing.
Ah OK, yeah I missed Croatia. I don't think I explained myself well, I didn't mean to say that their decline is because of their lack of emphasis on manufacturing compared to us. I meant to say that their deindustrialization is another nail in the coffin, in addition to the other reasons for their decline including fiscal policy among others. What I see happening is that European capital, including human capital, will be increasingly siphoned away to the US. This will likely create hardship and divisions within the EU, both between member states and within each state as people generally don't like to blame themselves for their issues, and that will probably further accelerate their decline.
That sounds like a Kremlin fantasy. If they fail, it will be because it turned to fascism and away from the liberal democratic values that have United the Western alliance. We run the same risk. China notwithstanding, economic productivity is largely a function of those liberal values
The Navy has finally been convinced to terminate its billions and billions of dollars LCS program on the realization that the vessel is not survivable against China.
An expert sees China as a paper tiger. The U.S. has secured four new bases in the Philippines, and has been cozying up to India as a potential trading partner. The four bases, along with missile bases in Fiji and New Guinea, are significant because, if China started a war with the U.S., the U.S. could blockade their ports. The U.S. now controls the Pacific Ocean from the Aleutian Islands to Australia. Game, set, match. India is significant because they have the population and industrial capability to replace China. China made a huge mistake pissing off both India (over a small patch of territory on the border) and another one with the Philippines (over who has fishing rights in Philippine waters). Game, set, match again. Xi is officially a major screwup of a leader, with more balls than brains. China is not so tough after all, geopolitical strategist says
South Korea starts deploying a U.S. THAAD missile defense system, and China is outraged. American missile defense system in South Korea cleared for full deployment despite China's outrage: report
China stops issuing permits for exports of graphite to Sweden, shutting down Sweden's battery industry. This is what China does once it gets a monopoly on things. It is suspected that this will help China sell EV's in Europe, because Europe will have limited choices. Why is China blocking graphite exports to Sweden?
How would you reconcile that article with this trade data? China Exports of natural graphite to Sweden - 2023 Data 2024 Forecast 1994-2022 Historical Or how about these articles? $1.5 billion dollar Chinese investment in Sweden to build anodes, presumably making use of graphite. China’s Putailai to build anode factory in Sweden CATL's 14 GWh battery plant in Germany, plan for 100 GWh battery in Hungary. Politics aside, China's CATL ramps up cell production in Germany "Some 44% of planned battery capacity in Europe by 2030 is from Asian companies, data shows, with CATL top of the list - prompting some concern in political circles on an over-reliance on foreign producers for a key technology."
China will not be stopped. The US has always had and still has the option of getting along with her …
Seems like China is willing to support Chinese companies in Sweden (and other countries), but does not want any competition from Swedish companies. It's why most capitalist countries have laws against monopolies and unfair trade practices. China has built their economy on I.P. theft and unfair trade practices.
Absolutely. All the U.S. has to do is turn a blind eye to: * the theft of our civilian and military technology (as well as that of our trading partners) * the genocide of the Uighyur people * the threats of China regarding an invasion of our trading partner Taiwan * the pollution that China puts in the air and winds up on the west coast of the U.S. * the police stations that China has opened in U.S. cities * the spy balloons, computer hacking, and other violations of U.S. sovereignty * the women that China sends over here to have sex with prominent U.S. government officials to blackmail them * the repeated violations of international law * the bribery of officials of poor countries with natural resources for access to those resources * the gathering of natural resources to hold a monopoly on those resources to use as leverage against other nations * the threats and intimidation of our trading partners * the over-fishing of waters around the world, including harvesting sharks for their fins and dumping the carcass overboard * the payments made to poachers for exotic animals and parts (as they go extinct) for traditional Chinese medicine * the lies they casually tell when they unleash a deadly virus on the world So, yes, if civilization is not important to you, then we can get along with China.
China's economic problems are expected to have a negative impact on the U.S. stock market. Why China's faltering economy could soon become a top-of-mind concern for the US stock market
The Russian rebellion caught the Chinese population by surprise, and scared them. "If this can happen in Russia, will China be next?" Chinese journalist says Russia 'cannot return to the country it was' – before deleting comment
More on China's hiring retired western military pilots to train Chinese pilots to kill western military pilots, and more on China's desperate search for a capable jet aircraft engine. China's cheap jet engines only last one fourth as long as western jet engines, in addition to being badly under-powered. China is looking all over the world for help building and flying its fighter jets
