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War in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by PITBOSS, Jan 21, 2022.

  1. dingyibvs

    dingyibvs Premium Member

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    That's the definition of air supremacy, not air superiority.

    The issue with the Russian air force is that their ability to replace losses is terrible. They're making a paltry number of aircrafts, so that even though they have a significant advantage in the air, they can't really afford to use them for offensive operations. This IMO is the main reason this war has been so stagnant. When neither side has an effective air force to use for offensive operations, you get this WWI style defensive trench warfare.

    I think the end game will be as you mentioned before, when the morale breaks on one side. There's a lot of focus on a potential Trump election, I'm not so sure that's the greatest risk on the Western side. I think the divisions within Europe, between EU's member states as well as between political parties within each individual state, may be of greater concern. Trump despite his theatrics did not take any significant concrete steps out of step with the foreign policy establishment. Our ties with Russia, North Korea, or China didn't materially change. The only relation that did change was with Iran, but there was no foreign policy consensus on that unlike with Russia.
     
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  2. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    If you want to quibble outside of a joint education environment about the difference between “effective” interference and “prohibitive” interference, then I concede the point: “effective” is associated with “supremacy” and “prohibitive” is associated with “superiority.”

    The bottom line, however, does not change: Russia has neither. They are fighting in a contested air domain, and that contest is trending toward Ukraine at the moment.
     
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  3. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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  4. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I believe part of it to be Russia doesn’t want to escalate and give an opening for NATO to say “we need to reinforce Ukraine’s air fleet in a major way.” By holding back their more advanced fighter jets and bombers, they can keep Ukraine weak in that NATO will be less likely to send more jets/bombers to Ukraine. On all fronts, that seems to be the case. Most of what NATO has been sending are convenient to NATO, not necessarily what would best equip Ukraine for a successful liberation. In the air, Ukraine has been relegated to air defense systems, which have helped, but also keep things at a slow, controllable slog.
     
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  5. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Someone in the U.S. is smuggling small arms cartridges from manufacturer Hornady and shipping them to Russia. Hornady is as angry as a hornet's nest that's been kicked. Don't worry, I've already turned in our comrade as a suspect. The ammo has been used by Wagner forces in Ukraine.

    Russia receives small arms cartridges made by US company Hornady

    How many really large orders for ammo does Hornady get?
     
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  6. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    “The consistency and methods of alleged torture suggested "a level of coordination, planning and organisation, as well as the direct authorisation, deliberate policy or official tolerance from superior authorities

    The U.N. experts said in a statement the torture included electric shocks, hoodings and mock executions and had been carried out to extract intelligence, force confessions"

    UN experts raise 'widespread' torture concerns with Russia
     
  7. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    Some promising reports last night, if true (thread)

     
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  8. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    U.S. Admits Defeat In War On Russia And China
    Confronted with the realities of life the Biden administration has in the last days acknowledged defeat in two on its most egregious and delusional foreign policy games.

    The Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed. Its army is getting slaughtered on the battlefield. The 'counteroffensive' of the 'NATO trained' Ukrainian brigades has made no real progress on any front. The high level of losses of men and material make it impossible that it will ever again regain the initiative.

    The U.S. aim was to integrate the Ukraine into NATO. It would then have been able to station U.S. troops in Ukraine and to put its weapons into reach of Moscow so that any independent Russian move could be countered with a threat of imminent annihilation.

    After more than 20 years of pursuing that aim the U.S. threw in the towel …

    MoA - U.S. Admits Defeat In War On Russia And China
     
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  9. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    interesting. You follow that account, does it seem mostly unbiased with reporting? I added it.
     
  10. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    It does. I think anyone other than Russians has some sympathy with Ukraine which may result in some nonweather version of wishcasting. But they strive to be objective
     
  11. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    Fully half of Ukraine’s tanks scraped together over the course of a year has been wasted in just two weeks making no meaningful gains.
     
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  12. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    We, and therefor Ukraine seem to be lacking in front line air defenses and middle ranges anti air missiles. We have the patriot (80km) to basically the stinger (5km) on different platforms.
    It’s all about having the missing piece - fighter jets.


    “It didn’t have to be this way. The U.S. Army decades ago grew overly comfortable with the U.S. Air Force’s assurance that it would control the sky over any conceivable battlefield. The Army ceased developing new armored air-defense vehicles and consigned most of its hundreds of unarmored Avengers to National Guard units.

    But Russia’s wider war on Ukraine has underscored how tenuous air-superiority can be, even for the bigger air force in a lopsided fight.”

    Ukraine’s American-Made Avenger Air-Defense Vehicles Are Too Vulnerable For The Front Line
     
  13. 92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Damn bro...Russia's been spinning it's wheels in the mud for over a year having scarcely taken control of a quarter of the country....and you're spiking the football after a couple of weeks, b/c Urkaine hasn't pushed Russia all the way back to Moscow?

    I'm think'n that might be just a tad premature.
     
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  14. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Is Russia still running out of missiles tomorrow?
     
  15. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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  16. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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  17. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    And I would assume that this is your source:
    Russian President Vladimir Putin elaborated on the losses taken by Ukrainian forces after an almost two week long offensive, during a meeting with military correspondents on June 14, while commenting on the recent major losses suffered by Ukraine’s new batches of Western supplied armour. "When we began this conversation, we mentioned that the offensive unfolded in two directions, and several tanks have been destroyed by the aviation. Helicopters are very effective," he stated, adding when referring to Russia’s primary man portable anti tank missile system the Kornet that “several armoured vehicles and a tank were destroyed by the infantry using anti-tank weapons. Kornets work ideally, but we need more of them, and this will be done." Putin further commented on the performances of American M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles German Leopard tanks, which both took considerable losses in recent failed offensives by Ukrainian forces against Russian positions after seeing their first ever combat deployments in the conflict. "They burn nicely, as we expected, be it Bradleys or Leopards, yes," the president told corespondents, adding that “ammunition detonates inside, and pieces fly off in different directions."
    Military Watch Magazine
     
  18. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    Ukraine so horrified by its armor losses that it’s decided to kill its soldiers, en masse, to save the little armor it has …

     
  19. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    Saw that, too. I love the tough-guy bravado from the guy who dodged service in Afghanistan. My wonder is whether he is actually well informed and is just sticking to the information campaign or if this is more of his people telling him what he wants to hear. I’d love it if someone asked him something to the effect of “If Russia is actually winning, then why isn’t Russia winning in an observable way?” Why are the catastrophic losses of the Ukrainians and the glorious tactical victories of the Russians always just out of view, always about to become apparent to the world, always just over the horizon? How is his narrative of a crushing, unrecoverable blow against the Ukrainians any different than the last two times when the Russians made great claims about Ukrainian death throes right before they had to abandon the field in disorder and act like it was intentional?
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2023
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