I wondered how much Kugel had improved statistically when he got hot late in the year. It was too hard to focus on just that stretch, so I decided to contrast the conference and non-conference portions. Conference: 25 mpg, 12.6 pts, 3.4 reb, .8 ast, 1.4 to, 58% on 2s, 41% on 3s, 9 fga, 2.8 fta Non-Conference: 20 mpg, 6.9 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.7 to, 38% on 2s, 30% on 3s, 6.5 fga, 2.4 fta Just a magnificent improvement. Things that really stuck out to me. First, he not only started hitting his threes, but his two point percentage shot up even more. He missed so many easy bunnies early. It also made me wonder if the smaller lineup gave him more space to operate in the paint without worrying about shot blockers coming off the 4/5. Second, his shot attempts went up, while his assists and turnovers went down. Earlier, it appeared that he was forcing tricky passes into tight spaces--and throwing many of them at high velocity that were hard to catch. But it also made me think maybe he simply started being more assertive with his shot rather than trying to defer. Overall, if he can bring that conference productivity over 30 mpg, he may very easily be a 15-17 pt, 4-5 reb guy. Kid could be very special next year.
He was easily the biggest get in this year's recruiting class. Keeping Kugel = transfers want to play with that dude.
I think back to our optimism regarding Reeve's late season push and how it was fool's gold. I bring that up to assert the two cases really are different. Much larger sample size. But for sure, we thought KR was elite coming into the season.
Yeah, Reeve's "big jump" was about 4 games. In hindsight, it was clearly a fluke and a statistical anomaly because his 3s started to fall. Anybody that's as shot-happy as him will eventually hit a lucky streak. Kugel was steadily improving all season and it all came together for him in February. Big difference between the two.
I thought about that, too. As you say, though, they are very different. For one reason, Kugel will have continuity in system and coach between years 1 and 2. And the coach who has him is the same guy who recruited him in the first place. Also, Reeves did it over basically three games while taking a very high volume of shots (32, including 23 threes), and even then he didn't shoot as well from the arc as Kugel did all conference season. Granted, Reeves didn't play anywhere near as much as Kugel, but his stats were relatively identical in conference and non-conference play, while Kugel played at a legitimately all-league level for 10 games (17+ ppg, which was more than Reeves averaged in his three game stretch). I was pretty bullish about Reeves and thought his improvement was going to be the key to our season last year. But Kugel is already at a different level.
KR I think had the talent, was disappointing he didn’t work out. Definitely needed to be more aggressive driving to see a few shots fall that way or even some dunks. Guy had top level explosiveness and slashing ability and didn’t use it nearly enough (and not enough to set other guys up). Nothing more frustrating than seeing a guy in a shooting slump taking deep “heat check” 3’s. At least stick to 3’s gotten out of the offense! Maybe a fresh start helps him reset and get back to looking like he did at the end of ‘22, but I think not settling for quick shots needs to be coached into him.
Athletic kids need to work on outside shot in college. Reeves did not improve year over year. Don’t think coaches trusted him to be in correct position on defense either
There was optimism he would take the next jump but I don’t know about “elite”. The off-season video of the team doing dribbling drills was concerning as it looked as though he had the worst handle on the team.
