The methodology of the Brookings paper is far beyond my understanding, but they did mention and address some of my immediate questions. Particularly, I wondered if a focus on lights, freight, etc. is still appropriate for an economy that's rapidly becoming more dependent on services than manufacturing. I don't have the knowledge to understand what their explanation means though. Overall, I think their conclusion that the growth rate is overestimated by ~15% seems plausible. As for the thing about Xi calling for youth to go to the countryside, I found the source for it here, quoting Google translation: 习近平出席中央农村工作会议并发表重要讲话_滚动新闻_中国政府网 Reading through the article (my God what a dense and drab read), it seems to be focused on the revitalization of Chinese countryside and strengthening the agriculture sector. The section calling for an infusion of young talent is a small part of the article and appears reasonable in the context.
The weapons still have to be aimed. What are they going to use to aim the weapons, last week's newspaper reports of where the U.S. Navy is? Do you really think that China has enough anti-ship weapons to fire them randomly into a 1,000-square mile area and hit something?
Barrons believes that China may be headed for a "lost decade", similar to Japan in the 1980's. China May Be Headed for a Lost Decade
Europeans do not have our backs in a war with China over Taiwan … Would Europeans Back Washington in a U.S.-China War? A New Survey Might Surprise You
China's economy is so bad that large numbers of Chinese young people have turned to "divine intervention". Young people have given up on the prospects of school and hard work and started going to pray for better luck at the temples. Lottery sales are also up. People in China are so worried about the economy they're asking for divine intervention | CNN Business
A former International Monetary Fund (IMF) official jumps on the bandwagon claiming that China is headed for a "lost decade" of economic problems. China is likely headed for a lost decade and won't 'eat our economic lunch,' former IMF official says
Don't look now, but somebody else thinks China's economy is slowing down. China's economy is slowing down. Is it permanent? As long as no one says that China's economy has clay feet . . . NOOOOOOO ! ! ! ! !
China is using bribery to win bids for lithium production in South America in a bid to maintain a monopoly on metals for high-tech devices. Argentina has 20% of the world's known lithium reserves, and China is all over them like white on rice. Bolivia has 21% of the world's lithium deposits, and China has that country's production pretty well sewn up. It is a mystery to me why the civilized world continues to do business with a country known for massive bribery and theft. Corruption is China weapon in effort to corner lithium market in Latin America, experts say
More corruption in China. A Samsung executive was caught stealing plans for a microchip-making plant in China, and building another plant based on the plans less than a mile away. Not sure why South Korea is allowing its mega-corporations to build microchip-making plants in China. A former Samsung exec stole plans for a chipmaking plant in China — then tried to replicate it across town, prosecutors say
Wow. 40% positivity rate. The reported deaths are almost certainly an underreport In China, positive test rate for COVID rose to 40% last month In China, positive test rate for COVID rose to 40% last month - Tampa Bay Times For more great content like this subscribe to the Tampa Bay Times app here:
More on the Chinese population problem: Last year, China recorded its fewest marriages in three decades. That's not going to help prevent the population from aging and shrinking. It's hard to say whether the reduction is due to Covid, the economic difficulties, or all the talk of war with Taiwan. Their peak year for weddings was 2013, which, incidentally, was the year I spent the most time in China (but did not participate in any weddings that I know of). China records fewest marriages in more than three decades as population crisis looms | CNN