We're not sending our best weapons though. Also, if you look at wars throughout history, if a war lasts long enough everyone learns how to fight. After that it just comes down to comprehensive national strength and will. I think if Ukraine continues to focus on the south, and continues to attack many places instead of focusing on one area, the counter offensive will fail. If you've been keeping up with this war you would've known that the Russians have learned. Their organization and tactics have changed significantly since the bumbling first few months. This is a war of attrition now, and without stepped up NATO support Ukraine is doomed to fail. They've lost a lot already and they've yet to even breach the spotting line of Russian defenses. They're still fighting in the grey zone. I shutter to think how much losses they'd suffer just to reach the first real line of defense. IMO what Ukraine needs to do is to give up on achieving a strategic victory in the south and focus on achieving a propaganda victory in the north. Retake Bakhmut, sow dissension within Russian ranks (i.e. Wagner vs. the Russian MOD), make positive headlines in the West to secure another wave of larger and more cohesive aid. I can't predict further than that, too many variables. Now if they do focus on the south but at least focus on one area of the front, they'll definitely make a breakthrough. That's the nature of offensive maneuvers, you can achieve very large local numerical advantage. I think that'd be the second best option for them. I have questions regarding their ability to exploit that breakthrough, but that's at least better than getting bogged down in the grey zone.
The idiocy of Biden. They've all but said we'll see what this counteroffensive does and then we're going to the table later this year. Which tells Russia all they have to do is hold their ground for a few months and they'll get their deal, war will be over. That's basically what Sullivan has been saying as of late. "We hope Ukraine makes up some ground with this counteroffensive, because we're wrappin' this shit up by Christmas one way or the other..."
How many “counteroffensives” do you think Ukraine can muster? I don’t think theres anything profound in that Biden statement. Most likely Ukraine gets one really good shot at breaking through to try and rout the Russians, and if that l fails from there a frozen war becomes far more likely. In fact, isn’t he basically adopting what YOU have been wanting? Like… you seemingly were even against the counteroffensive. Kind of weird to call your own position “idiocy” when it comes from the administration.
The idiocy is tipping your hand to Russia as you’re sending billions of dollars in military equipment to fight them. I see you’re pretty slow on the uptake. And the policy isn’t adopting what I want, at all. I’d have to want tens of thousands of more deaths for that policy to be what I want and I think I’ve been abundantly clear that I oppose that. I see you have reading comprehension issues as well. Or perhaps it’s that you can’t accept the fact that Biden is a moron on foreign policy matters. Why would you ever tell an adversary like Russia you have a few months left in the tank and then you’re ready to fold? The f outta here!
To be clear, I don’t even see anywhere that Sullivan has actually said what you implied. Last quote I saw from him, he very specifically said no timetable for any talks. But it’s also common sense that Ukraine isn’t going to get waves and waves of *offensive* capability. Defensive, yes. But offense might be a one shot deal. Everybody would assume that. So to say “we’ll see how the offensive goes” before talking is not a profound statement that the war will be given up in a few months.
Most experts will tell you they expect the counteroffensive will last a few months. And it's been well publicized over the past few weeks that top US and NATO officials are looking to shift into negotiations as soon as the counteroffensive concludes. Sullivan tells us he hopes Ukraine can make up some ground to go into negotiations with the upper hand. And then you have the leaked docs that show we don't even think Ukraine will do much with the counteroffensive. Put 2 and 2 and 2 together. More BS about "common sense", because many posters and the neo-cons are posturing as if we are in this until Ukraine reclaims all of their land. Ukraine isn't going to do that with patriot missiles. And you're just making it up as you go along, because if the war drags on beyond the counteroffensive, whether there's more "counteroffensives" or not, Ukraine is going to need more than patriot missile systems, javelins and HIMARS to defend their territory from further Russian advances. But here's your kicker.....we don't even think the counteroffensive is going to work. It's all a scam. Washington Post: Leaked document reveals US doubts about Ukraine's counteroffensive So the reality is Russia is sitting there laughing their asses off at Biden, because his officials have telegraphed the next phase of the war and they know we don't even think Ukraine will accomplish anything with this counteroffensive from the leaked docs. All Russia has to do is hold serve and mission accomplished. Which leads to another set of questions like: why are we sending these billions of dollars if we don't think it's going to produce meaningful results? why are we prolonging an ongoing human catastrophe if we're ready to settle and we don't think the counteroffensive is going to move the needle? why is the administration blatantly lying to the American people as to our assessments and intentions in Ukraine? At the end of the day, the money can be replaced. The lives can't.
Are we conscripting Ukrainian soldiers? All the U.S. is doing is enabling their defense. If they wanted to live under Russian rule, Ukraine could have surrendered immediately. They kept up the fight. Ukraine’s choice. Reclaiming 2014 territory is a very different ballgame compared to what Ukraine has been doing up to this point, which is mostly holding a line. It would have been crazy talk 1+ year ago to think Ukraine would still be a country, let alone that they might have an “offensive”. I dont put stock in those intel reports personally (I assume that was a selective fruit of the Texeira leak). Everything on the ground is proving to be fluid - same intel predicted Afghan govt would last at least a year, or that Ukraine would fall in just a few weeks after the initial invasion. No point putting too much stock in any one assessment, though early reports of this “offensive” are troubling.
If that is indeed the strategy of this Administration, then I agree that is stupid. And it’s further evidence that Jake Sullivan needs to find something else to do in life.
They won't take the chance on this dragging on through the election. I can't think of why else they would cut bait so quickly after coming this far, but I wouldn't be surprised either, at the same time.
As the smoke cleared the battlefield, we were left witness to a disaster of unprecedented proportions. NATO’s most advanced tanks and armor were left as smoking ruins: Anatomy of a NATO-Planned, Trained, and Armed Disaster
Best summary of available facts on the counteroffensive I’ve read yet: Ukraine Situation Report: Offensive Going Better Than Expected, U.S. Says
It's an article from Tuesday though, a lot has happened since then. There are actual geolocated pictures and videos from the battlefield now, which we can make actual analyses on instead of analyses of propaganda from both sides.
Reportedly 15 Leopards and 14 Bradley’s out of commission. Appears the Ukies waded into heavy artillery (hope Boris is happy) panicked, turned around and drove over Russian mines.
Russia's Central Bank is getting nervous. Apparently, the falling ruble and record labor shortage are not good for Russia's economy. Time for an interest rate hike. The old rate of 7.5% isn't cutting the mustard. Russia's central bank sounds alarms on the economy as the falling ruble and record labor shortage add inflationary pressures
Putin admits that war is going badly: Russia has "inferior weapons" and has suffered "significant" losses of personnel during the Ukrainian counter-offensive. In fact, according to Putin, the losses exceed the "classical figure". It's good to know that Russia has a classical figure available to estimate losses during a counter-offensive. Putin is such a military genius. I'll bet that NATO leaders do not have a classical figure available when they find themselves caught in a counter-offensive. Our own poor comrade probably isn't going to take this very well. I hope he's sitting down in the basement when he reads this, and he's on the correct dosage of his medications. Maybe he could distract himself by watching a classic movie about Russian military heroics. Maybe that would cheer him up. How about "The Hunt for Red October"? Putin Cops to ‘Significant Losses,’ Inferior Weapons in Stunning War Admission
You should check your sources. Putin says Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed so far The exact quote according to official Russian media: Ukraine suffers huge losses in counteroffensive, Kiev to blame, says Putin
Seen on the internet and fact-checked true … Western media calls the Kiev regime military "Ukrainian soldiers". They call the east Ukrainians who refuse to live under the post-coup regime "pro-Putin separatists". And they call the Russian military "Putin's forces". They call people who tell the truth "disinformation agents". And they call the entire system of spin and repression "democracy" and "western values".
Well, that’s certainly more along the lines of what we expect Putin to say. It’s adorable, by the way, that he still refers to the popular revolution that overthrew the Russian puppet regime in 2014 (and has had nothing but free and fair elections since) as a “coup.” I guess he will have a precedent to call it a “coup” when his own people come knocking.
