So both militaries are poorly organized and incompetent. Bad prognosis for this ending any time soon.
Russia has a weak economy because the things that it produces are not "value-added" things. The main value-added thing that Russia produces is military hardware. And the reputation of their military hardware has been taking a beating. And, of course, Russia cannot extract any value from it while they are at war, since they need every bullet and rifle they can get their hands on. They've even cancelled deliveries to India. And the other negative about producing non-value-added merchandise is that there are lots of countries that can make those things. So if you pull your oil off the market, other countries (that have oil) will step in and take your sales as prices increase. Lots of countries can make grain as well. China's economy is much stronger than Russia's specifically because they make value-added things like iPhones, cars, and now commercial jets, not to mention that they did not rush headlong into a foolish invasion of a neighbor. The clever thing about the sanctions, especially on oil, is that the west can take steps to limit how much Russia can sell oil for. So Russia's oil is still going out to certain parts of the world, but Putin is not getting top dollar for it. The world is not falling apart because of the Ukraine War, and Russia is not profiting from it.
Good stuff--but the bolded would be a veritable impossibility. The second the last Russian soldier crosses the border back into Russia, Ukraine would be accepted into NATO. Russia is keenly aware of this, and can not accept it--by which I mean suicide by nuclear annihilation will be deemed preferable to going on in abject humiliation. We'll sooner see Russia go scorched earth (while Russia still in the eastern portion of Ukraine) and nuke Kiev, and other valuable Ukranian assets, than see Russia retreat peacefully, wholesale, with its tail tucked 'tween its hindquarters. That's why the smart money is on a negotiated resolution that concedes to Russia something resembling a face saving out. They got nukes...and they got pride. Strip them of the latter, and you can count on them deploying the former in a New York minute. If folks don't accept that, imo, they're being naive. jmho/fwiw.
At some point, people need to stop murdering people,right? But given how little regard Russia gave the treaties it signed with Ukraine, and how little regard Russia has for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, what’s the incentive for Ukraine to trust that Russia won’t come back in a few years? This is their dilemma. And it’s real.
Good info, thx. I tried to find more info but nothing specific. I did find below (2nd video is better). it doesn’t show entire column destroyed, but definitely some direct hits. And to your point, it does show the tanks - in a tight formation, broad daylight, just cruising down a one lane road in the open. Just arm-chairing it, that would seem like tank maneuvers 101 not to bunch up. But maybe even worse, surprised they drove into that situation. I would think we provide ample satellite images of where Russian forces & artillery are, especially at the start of the offensive. But as we’ve seen every tank is vulnerable. Unfortunately the West better prepare to see some of our vaunted tanks destroyed.
One would hope that those types of advances would have had missile, drone, or artillery support to immediately zero in on any russian artillery that opened fire. To the best of my knowledge, ukr artillery should have longer range than russian artillery
Russia respects NATO. IMO, this ends exactly one way--Russia keeping X portion of Ukraine which it invaded and occupies at the time of the negotiated resolution, and the remaining land = the new Ukraine...which will be the newest member of NATO.
I am all for sharing potentially bad news, but there’s very much an open question as to whether it’s real. Videos Keep Circulating That Claim Destruction Of German Leopard 2 Tanks In Ukraine
I’ve seen a confirmed leopard kill. They’re not invulnerable. But for sure the full counter offensive is on. Will be interesting to see what they get and how much it costs them.
To your first point, I think it’s unlikely that Ukraine would achieve that level of military success before Russian domestic turmoil ended the war first. But several things I would have told you were extremely unlikely (impossible is a word I would rarely use in war) have occurred since this war started. We will see. I don’t believe there is a scenario, short of Ukraine invading Russia, in which Russia can use nuclear weapons and not find itself fully at war with NATO. And if I know China they have privately warned Russia against any first-use of nuclear weapons when Russian national existence is not actually threatened. Catastrophic failure to conquer one of your neighbors is not an existential threat. If the point is that we shouldn’t “risk it,” then I would counter we’ve already been “risking it.” Russia has been running its mouth about using nukes literally since the first day of their unprovoked invasion. Since they haven’t done it, even after having been successfully smacked in the mouth by Ukraine several times over, my assessment is they know what will happen if they do. The results range anywhere from complete military defeat in Ukraine to an extinction-level event for the world. But none of the results involve victory over Ukraine, which is the point, so why bother?
Ok...everything is in the realm of possibility. Within that infinite realm, I would place the probability of Russia fully conquering Ukraine, well above the probability of Russia pulling completely out, without taking some severe show your ass move (including nukes). To Russia, NATO at their doorstep is existential. That's kinda why they're in Ukraine to begin with.
While the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons exists, the likelihood is very low. And I think you over-estimate the effect of pride on Russian decision-making. They handle it better than you think when it comes to accepting humiliation. Their country has collapsed before. This wouldn't be the first time. The last time, they had to accept the offer of help from their arch-enemy to rebuild their economy. If Russia gets pushed out of Ukraine, Putin might think that nukes are a good option (because their use might delay his own death), but by then he would be a dead man walking, and I don't see the military going along with an idea that would annihilate what's left of Russian civilization. That would give them a good excuse to carry out a coup against Putin, if they weren't already planning one.
That’s their argument, sure. But we don’t believe that, and Russia knows it’s BS, too. When the chips are actually down, and it’s time to risk an actual existential crisis over a pretend one, they will fold.
Russian Soldiers Complain That 'Entire Regiments' Are Being Wiped Out (msn.com) Russian soldiers fighting against Russian anti-Vladimir Putin militia that crossed into the Belgorod region bordering Ukraine last week have complained that "entire regiments" are being wiped out. The "Pskov Province" Telegram channel said on Tuesday it received a message from a Russian unit fighting near the the border town of Shebekino in Belgorod. "I would like to see the story of our regiment being slaughtered on the Shebekino and Graivoron directions and somehow put the matter to rest," the message said. Two Russian rebel groups—the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC)—entered Belgorod last week, and intense fighting has been ongoing since. The Legion is made up of defectors from the Russian armed forces and Russian and Belarusian volunteers, and the RVC says its members include Russians fighting on Ukraine's side and against the Kremlin regime. .................................... "We are under constant shelling, officers, ordinary soldiers and above all the people who have families and all their relatives at home are being killed," the Russian regiment said in its message. The Russian soldiers said poor leadership and a lack of reinforcements and equipment are to blame for high casualty numbers. ................................ An unverified video has also circulated on Russian and Ukrainian social media channels, purportedly showing a Russian soldier from the 138th Brigade posted in the Belgorod region. In the video, the solider said his unit lost 80 percent of its personnel and that he and his fellow soldiers were "forced to retreat without permission and without reinforcements."
