I have been wondering this myself. My guess is they will try to weaken it so those fleeing can’t take that much stuff with them.
If I had the capability of blowing it, I would. Assuming I could capture Crimea, I would view any Russians I could take prisoner as a bargaining chip during peace negotiations for the return of all of the Ukrainians who have been kidnapped and sent for “reeducation.”
russian leadership might not but if enough of the population does, I would think that leadership will have to listen as they seem to be on shaky ground already
This is what I was going to say. Putin (or, more likely, whoever rules Russia after Putin is deposed) might not care, but someone does. And at any rate those actual Russians should be more valuable to Russia than kidnapped Ukrainians who don’t want to be Russians.
I agree, there'll be a lot of misinformation on both sides, so territorial exchange will be the only true way to gauge. As for what kind of operation is taking place right now, it doesn't sound like shaping operations. These sound like probing operations, reconnaissance in force. A defender cannot have massed force everywhere along the front, so typically the attacker would mass their forces and attack along places they think is weak, achieving local numerical superiority. The goal is to make a breakthrough, and only then massed reserves follow to exploit the breakthrough. The defender would give ground initially, then counterattack to take back territories lost before the attacker has time to settle down and reserves pour in en force. There's plenty of evidence that Russia isn't imploding. It's best to parse out all the nonsense and focus on the big picture. A country's ability to wage war is based on its finances, manufacturing capacity, manpower reserve, and political will. The first 3 are fairly measurable, and Russia is doing quite well in all 3. The Ruble and their GDP is at around prewar levels, manufacturing capacity is up double digits over last year, and they have plenty of manpower especially since the majority of the losses the past few months have been Wagner convicts. The last point is the one most hotly debated, which is natural since it's not nearly as measurable. I won't debate this since there is no hard evidence one way or another, but there's also really no point right now. This upcoming counter-offensive will do a lot to change the political will on both side, so we can just wait a few months and see.
[COLOR=var(--color-content-secondary,#363636)]Ukrainian forces stepped up their artillery strikes and ground assaults in a flurry of offensive military activity that by Monday was raging along multiple sectors of the front line, American and Russian officials said. Ukraine has remained silent about military operations after months of preparing for a major counteroffensive in the war. But the American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the surge in attacks was a possible indication that Kyiv’s long-planned counteroffensive against Russian forces had begun. The officials brd their assessment in part on information from U.S. military satellites, which detected an uptick in action from Ukrainian military positions. The satellites have infrared capabilities to track artillery fire and missile launches.[/COLOR]
The subheading from the NYT is telling: "Troops’ use of patches bearing Nazi emblems risks fueling Russian propaganda and spreading imagery that the West has spent a half-century trying to eliminate." So the problem with wearing Nazi emblems is not that they ARE Nazis. The problem is that Russia will point out that they are Nazis, and that the suppression of SYMBOLS will be disrupted.
Good news for Russia! Wagner captures a prisoner. And he's a high-ranking colonel. Excellent work. Only one small problem. He's a Russian colonel. Prigozhin alleges Wagner mercenaries captured Russian lieutenant colonel See? I can print good news stories about Russia.
I’m shocked Putin didn’t terminate this guy earlier. Command and control is breaking down rapidly. End days in sight for Putin?
Russia donates 10 tons of ammunition to Ukraine to give them a sporting chance and keep the war interesting. Jolly good show, Ivan! Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation discovers 10 tonnes of Russian ammunition and anti-aircraft system in Kharkiv Oblast
I suspect that Ukraine is using infantry to find weak points in Russia's lines and achieve a breakthrough where tanks could get behind Russian defense lines and attack. The next week or two should be interesting. Here is an interesting article on what fighting is going on in Ukraine recently. A military commander claims to have seen some Leopards in SE Ukraine near a town called Novodonetsk. The main fighting seems to be occurring around Bahkmut, as Ukraine tries to surround the Russians. Early Stages Of Ukraine's Counteroffensive Appear To Be Underway
Ukraine makes a deep-fake video of Putin announcing that Ukraine is invading Russia, and broadcast it in Russia. Looks like the Kremlin got pranked big time. Russian TV airs apparent deepfake video of Putin ordering martial law amid reports Ukraine is on the attack
Fake news. I clearly remember reading that the Russian withdrawal from Kharkiv was orderly, deliberate, and planned well in advance of the so-called “counteroffensive” by the rebellious Little Russians (who only captured ground the Russians were strategically abandoning anyway). Since one does not leave behind supplies that can be used by the enemy during a strategic withdrawal, I can only conclude this article is BS.
The above is the last 5 months of the war in a nutshell. Claiming Russia is imploding is utterly irresponsible and foolish. Ukraine hasn't made significant territorial gains in months. It's essentially a stalemate with slight advantage to Russia if we're looking at the past 5 months. That is not to say Russia is performing admirably. But imploding? I hope Ukraine isn't listening to you. @dingyibvs brings up a fair point. Russia's infrastructure, manufacturing output, economy are almost level with pre-invasion. Ukraine's infrastructure is wrecked, something like 60% unemployment is what I've heard recently. It is a catastrophe for them. They are completely reliant upon NATO's weaponry and artillery shipments, because they cannot mass produce themselves. That's not an enviable position no matter how your buddies in the DNC spin it. Russia is quite happy to hang on to what they have now and call it a day, because with a Russian land-bridge to Crimea, it's going to be extremely difficult for Ukraine to reignite their economy, become a viable candidate to NATO and resist future Russian meddling in their politics. Russia never had an interest in occupying all of Ukraine. It would be a too big a financial burden to administer. They want just enough control to where Ukraine remains not a viable NATO candidate and they have their strategic advantage on the Black Sea. Anything more than that is overkill to Moscow. They don't have a need to shoulder that burden, strategic or otherwise.
In readin more on the dam, blowing it may make it nearly impossible for Ukraine to advance in the area, but it’s also a major water supply for Crimea. So the fallout should be interesting.
More concerning IMO is that it supplies the cooling water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest nuclear plant in Europe. Without cooling the plant would meltdown. There must be some sort of contingency plan for loss of water supply, but this is a pretty old plant, most of it built during Soviet days, and there's a war going on around it, so I don't know how this is gonna turn out. It's a mystery why anyone would want to blow it up, it's a pretty big blow to both sides. Maybe we'll have more facts later, but I'm sure both sides will blame the other.
