Yep. Although, I don't see tribalism as being healthy. Partisanship is repugnant to me as well. Tribalism is cannibalism.
I totally agree. I’m not saying it’s good, but it happens a lot. While there have always been republicans who are leery of getting into conflict unless it suits our interests and our mission was well defined, I am sure some of the anti Ukraine war republicans today were quite content with Iraq invasion at the time. Also, while any involvement in such conflicts poses risks, supporting a country with arms and aid is quite different than direct involvement.
If Ukraine’s first instinct was to negotiate an early end to the war in February 2022, then that’s totally understandable. They were soundly and instantly beaten in 2014. The Russians were coming in full strength, straight for Kyiv, with apparently unlimited objectives, and everyone still thought the Russians were 10-feet tall and could destroy the Ukrainians with bolts of lightning from their eyes and balls of flame from their arses. If NATO leadership said at the time something to the effect of, “Chin up. Let’s see how your troops do in the field before begging for terms,” well, then that’s just good judgment. Given the current trajectory of the war, Ukraine is wise to keep fighting until and unless Russia manages to turn things around, which appears increasingly unlikely. Let’s see how things stand this fall before we bow in to Russian disinformation about how it is actually winning, regardless of the current score.
The Brits believe that Russia is starting to fall apart. It turns out many of Russia's oligarchs are either creating their own private army, or aligning themselves with an existing private army. Even the defense minister has his own private army. All the armies are funded by the government, making it even more bizarre (Putin did this to avoid any more mobilizations). If this is how Russia handles "real" elections, it might mean that Putin is about to be "voted out". Things are starting to heat up in the dictatorship. It seems that Putin understands very little about running a world-class military--I'm fairly certain this isn't the way to get everyone pointed in the same direction. The private armies Putin has unleashed on Ukraine may lead to his downfall Ouch.
Yeah, keep up the naivete. Let me ask you, with $2 trillion and 20 years at our disposal, why didn't we restore order to our liking in Afghanistan like we did in NYC? The answer is simple, we did not have popular support. Why did the Taliban have much better morale than the troops we trained? Shouldn't they be motivated to protect what we were building there if they loved it? Unlike the residents of NYC, the people in Afghanistan did not want American police/GIs there. You're mistaking effect for cause, symptom for disease. Mafias, like the Taliban, are a symptom, not a disease. Organizations like ISIS, al-Qaeda, Taliban, etc. gain power not because they're scary people with guns, it's because of conditions on the ground that turn normal people into scary people with guns. The locals see foreigners as well as locals who adopt their ideals enrich themselves while impoverishing them and wreaking violence them. This is why our local puppets in Afghanistan, South Vietnam, or Republic of China crumbled so rapidly against the likes of the Taliban, the Viet Cong, and the CCP, who were seemingly against overwhelming odds yet succeeded so easily. They have/had the popular support, in ways that you apparently cannot understand.
Yes, you are quite naive. You can't just buy loyalty and fealty of another country with money. Where did you get that idea? And you can't throw enough money at a situation to convince people that they are safe when a guy with a gun shows up at your door late at night making threats. Besides, much of the $2 trillion was wasted on incompetence of high-ranking officers in the rear bases. You would think that with $2 trillion, the F.O.B.'s would never run out of water, but that was not the case. Some colonels would go to an F.O.B and round up an assault team and make a one-day attack on a Taliban position, and then take selfies with the dead bodies, in the hope that they could parlay that into a promotion. And like I said, Afghan spies were frequently recycled between F.O.B.'s, even when they were caught calling in locations of military equipment within the base for the Taliban to hit with artillery. If you want to get educated, read the book "Dog Company" about one F.O.B. in Afghanistan. We had the support of much of the Afghan people, but their fear of the Taliban was greater. They willingly sent their daughters to schools that the U.S. set up, right until the schools were attacked. We had to largely eliminate the Taliban to get rid of that fear, which we did not do. There were places in Afghanistan that the U.S. military was hesitant to go. If they went to those places, they made sure they got out before nightfall. It was not much a fair fight, because the Taliban could easily blend in with the civilian population when they wanted to. The differences between the Taliban and the U.S. mafia were that (a) the mafia organizations were not united, and could be persuaded to turn on each other and their bosses; (b) the "troops" of the mafia were street thugs, not trained in military warfare; and (c) the people in the mafia were not bound by a religion that had a lot to say about warfare (or "jihad").
taking out logistics lines, conducting demining operations.... Ukrainian army destroys Russia’s mainland route to Crimea with blasts in Berdyansk and Melitopol (msn.com) "Berdyansk is a port city. As Melitopol and other settlements to the south, it is a part of the so-called Russian mainland route to Crimea which is used alongside the Crimean Bridge for munition supply. They need to hit key points (of the route) in order to destroy it. That is happening now. "Explosions were heard in the Crimean city and logistical hub of Dzankoy in the northern part of the peninsula."it's a railway junction which has been affected before. As it was today during an overnight attack," Popovych said, explaining that the attack was a part of a Ukrainian campaign in the south. Ukrainian demining units are clearing territories along the contact line in preparation for a counteroffensive, the WSJ wrote. The demining operations are carried out manually at night to avoid revealing potential positions from which the offensive will be launched.
Will they leave the Crimean bridge open as an evacuation route to allow russian forces to flee rather than fight? remove their only evacuation route and then they have to fight or surrender when they may prefer to flee?
I think that's likely what'll end up happening. In the CNN update on Ukraine today, there was a blip about Jake Sullivan being asked about the eventual outcome of the war. He replied with something like "Zelensky said it himself that it can only end with a negotiated outcome." It sounds like we're heading in that direction. Putin seems to have no appetite for mass mobilization, and without it he simply doesn't have the manpower to make large gains in Ukraine. In Bakhmut Ukraine invested nearly 40 brigades plus more independent regiments and battalions, and per numerous Western accounts the attrition rate was quite high, so I doubt Ukraine has enough to significantly change the course of the war with their counteroffensive either. I think in the end, a negotiated outcome with the dividing lines at where it is right now would be an acceptable outcome to both sides. Ukraine would join the EU and eventually NATO as well, securing its economic and political independence from Russia. Russia would have secured its access to the Black Sea. I'm glad you've come to the realization that while it's easy to talk big about "earning trust" or "not abandoning allies", but in reality with $2 trillion and 20 years it's hard to even get reliable water supply to our FOBs. Getting rid of naivete requires facing reality. You seem to have the required knowledge already, so I don't need to educate you on any more facts. All you need to face reality is to confront your own cognitive dissonance. Only you can do that for yourself, so take your time and go at your own pace.
I linked it below. But you have to remember Sullivan is a far right-winger and Zelenskyy is a Putin sympathizer who just wants to hang a political defeat on Joe Biden. Ukraine reports two advances along the front line in the east
Why are people leaving Russia, who are they, and where are they going? There are no exact figures on how many people have left Russia - but estimates vary from hundreds of thousands to several million. In May the UK Ministry of Defence estimated 1.3 million people leaving Russia in 2022. Other estimates of figures from various sources confirm the trend. Forbes magazine cited sources inside the Russian authorities as saying that between 600,000 and 1,000,000 people left in 2022. The Bell and RTVi - both independent Russian media - published comparable figures. ., They come from different walks of life. Some are journalists like us, but there are also IT experts, designers, artists, academics, lawyers, doctors, PR specialists, and linguists. Most are under 50. Many share western liberal values and hope Russia will be a democratic country one day. Some are LGBTQ+. Sociologists studying the current Russian emigration say there is evidence that those leaving are younger, better educated and wealthier than those staying. More often they are from bigger cities.
It's possible that Ukraine just wanted to "negotiate" with Russia to buy some time to fortify their defenses. We don't know what they were thinking, and probably won't know until the war is over.
While it is terrible for the long term prospects for the country and economy, Putin probably views it as a positive, those who don’t like it enough to do something about leave, so the only ones left either like him, are indifferent, or are not inclined to make waves.
I don’t know where you came up with this narrative that Ukraine was told not to negotiate. Hell, in this same thread Biden is being criticized for offering Zelenskyy safe passage out of country because the US was in the state of mind that the country was lost, not that Ukraine should fight at all costs. More importantly, there were early settlement talks and in case you forgot the Ukrainian delegation along with the intermediary, Roman Abramovich, were poisoned. Then Putin killed the talks from what I remember.
This was after the US and NATO had agreed to additional weapons shipments. What you're talking about was the very start of the war. Which since you brought it up, I think the "Zelenskyy, let us get you out of there" was smoke and mirrors. I'm pretty sure they talked it through before Russia invaded. You don't think "sooooo...what ya gonna do if they invade?" wasn't talked about weeks in advance? And yes...the poisoning incident at the border Ukraine tried to bury as if it never happened? Yeah, I remember that. Chances are it probably wasn't the GRU who was responsible for that, considering Ukraine tried to act like it never happened and a US official blamed it on "environmental conditions."
A lot of reports of multiple Ukrainian offensives across the front, mostly in Donetsk and Zaporizhia. It sounds like the Ukrainian counter offensive has started. I think we can probably all take a break from debating the future course of the war for now and see how this goes since the end game may very well depend on its outcome.
Not quite yet. Looks more like shaping operations according to the analysts. We will know an offensive is actually underway once large formations of ground troops start moving. And the only way we will be able to tell definitively if that is happening is if ground changes hands. Both sides, of course, are going to tout success initially, but territorial exchange is the only real metric that is difficult to deny. I guess if we hear more Russian reports like last year that a glorious withdrawal to an even more menacing defensive line is underway, crushing the Nazis with every backward step, then we will know how it’s going.
Do you actually believe this nonsense? Russia is imploding as I type. I think what you are suggesting is as likely as it coming out that zelensky and Putin are secret lovers who have been having a little lovers spat.
