Is the ACC in trouble?

These things seem to go in cycles. The giant Southern Conference broke up in the 1930's to create the SEC, SWC, and the ACC. The issue then was travel costs in the Great Depression. Now they are combining back together to maximize TV revenue....I could easily see it breaking back up again (or leaving the NCAA and creating divisions similar to conferences) although I doubt it will be in my lifetime.

 

NO

 

Every conference and every program outside of the SEC and Big-10 is in trouble. And the bigger problem is that there's really not a good path forward for the ACC, Pac-12 or Big-12.

The Pac 12 has always had a major TV leverage disadvantage due to being 3 hours behind and lack of any viable expansion candidates West of the Mississippi. It's prime time games start when most of the East Coast is in bed. They have no leverage for a strong TV deal, which is why I think USC and UCLA bailed. At some point, I think there's a good chance Oregon and Washington end up in the Big-10. Stanford and Cal may be the only other programs that might have top tier value. The other schools may be screwed.

The Big-12 has lost all of it's premier programs to the SEC and Big-10 in the last 12 years. To it's credit, I think the Big-12 has made the best moves of the 3 conferences to give the conference long-term stability, but it's clearly no longer a power conference. The only schools that have any top tier value are maybe Oklahoma State and Kansas.

The ACC diluted itself by adding metro schools in the 2000s. They had to do something when Maryland left while the SEC and Big-10 were expanding and they grabbed the best programs available at the time, but they really screwed up their TV leverage with metro schools. Clemson, FSU and UNC are probably the only top tier programs and at least FSU and Clemson are already looking for any way out of the ACC.

In my opinion, none of these conferences have any path forward to compete with the SEC and Big-10. There's no way I can see to fix the ACC, Big-12 or Pac-12. There's no way to merge them and there's no way to kick schools out. And the SEC and Big-10 aren't going to help them. But beyond maybe Notre Dame, I'm really not sure there are any prizes that are going to entice the SEC and Big-10 to expand further. If Notre Dame decides to move to a conference, I could see Washington, Oregon, FSU, UNC and Clemson being candidates.

I've said before and I'll say again that at some point, I think the major ACC, Pac-12 and Big-12 programs that want to save themselves from becoming second tier programs are going to need to do something drastic, which is exactly what I think Clemson and FSU are currently trying to figure out. I'm sure they believe the SEC and Big-12 will snatch them up immediately if the GOR isn't a factor, but I think they'll be disappointed. I believe nothing happens unless/until Notre Dame makes a move.

In my opinion, the only path forward for programs that don't want to be relegated to second tier level is to save themselves and figure out how to leave their conference (fight the GORs/lawsuits and/or pay whatever it takes to get out any way they can). They might need to become independent for a period of time. And then those top schools form a new conference to try to at least compete with the Big-10 and SEC ... for now.

 

The problem with fsu (not the fun stuff we haze them on) is what do they bring in TV viewership? The State of FL? Nope. Alabama is covered with Bama and Aubie. Georgia? Nope. fsu does not bring in a new market, it's simply more of the same market. So the SEC gains little if anything by adding fsux.

The ACC should go for some schools that could help them. Liberty is a 50,000 student college but it's in VA where VT and UVA are. Maybe W Va would jump. Maybe Okla State or a Texas school like Tex Tech??

 

I was told a long time ago that UF, Ga, and USCe agreed to vote against ref$u, Ga Tech, and Clemson joining the SEC. Works for me

 

I agree that I don't see the SEC exactly drooling over FSU, but FSU is still a major national brand in college football. They do have value. If the SEC decides to expand, I think their candidates, in order, would be Notre Dame (longshot but the sole big prize out there that the Big 10/SEC would expand for), UNC, FSU and Clemson.

A newer program like Liberty doesn't help. They may have students, but they don't have much of a fanbase or any national following. A Texas school like Texas Tech would be great, but do you think any Big-12 program would view moving to the ACC to be more than a lateral move ... at best? The Big-12 arguably has a more lucrative TV deal. I believe I read that UCF may soon have more annual TV revenue than FSU.

If the ACC decided to try to expand, which I don't think would help, you'd probably be looking at the best possible candidates being from AAC (Tulane, USF, Memphis, ECU). None of them would help the ACC. That's the problem. There's really NOBODY available out there that would help the ACC.

There are really few moves that would help any of the conferences get stronger. Would top candidates SDSU, SMU and CSU make the Pac-12 stronger? It would make it bigger but I think weaker and probably less profitable as a conference. But the Pac-12 is forced to expand for scheduling.

The best the Big-12 could do was UCF, Cincy, Houston and BYU. Pretty respectable and probably the best possible schools they could have added, but again the conference will be bigger but I'm not sure it's better or will be more profitable.

Even for the SEC, I really think the only 2 additions that would make the conference more profitable would be Notre Dame and UNC. The same 2 programs can probably also be said for the Big-10, except Washington and Oregon might make scheduling easier for USC and UCLA.

 

That verbal pact was made in the 90s. I think when Texas A&M came in, there was another pact that would keep Texas out of the SEC. But just a few short years later, Texas A&M ended up voting for Texas admission, so ...

 

Hopefully UF, UGa, and USCe stand by their agreement. I don’t want ref$u to ever achieve the prestige of being in the SEC. Imagine what that would do for their recruiting

 

If the ACC contract is as solid as they claim, wouldn't Notre Dame have to go to there if they gave up their football independence? Obviously this all of this is up to whatever the lawyers can can get out of but I would think the first domino to fall would have be dissolving the ACC GOR before ND can make a move, unless their move was to just join the ACC

 

Bowden was ONLY thinking of the here/now. No long term thought…..live with it!

 

per the article: "The exit fee for ACC schools is a reported $120 million, and when it comes to breaking the grant of rights, Sports Illustrated reports most attorneys describe the agreement as "airtight.""

 

If the ACC could somehow entice Notre Dame to join, it seems that would be an event that could cause the TV rights to be re-negotiated and then it's "let the games begin." If the ACC starts weighting the shares that's a dangerous slope. Several ACC schools would be natural fits for the SEC, if the doors open, but I agree I never want to see the Holes or scUM get a lifeboat.

 

My understanding is the ACC does NOT have any GOR with Notre Dame, but it does have an exit fee, estimated to be in the range of $100 million. That's the same amount that the Big-10 is expected to dole out to each member annually within a few years. I think the SEC is going to be in the $70 million+ range. If Notre Dame really wants to join the Big-10 or SEC, I suspect it will happen somehow.

 

That makes sense

 

I'm hearing a lot of chatter than UNC folks think they are "above" the sec and prefer the big 10.....

UNC and one other school would be a great addition to the SEC footprint. UVA isn't enough of a powerhouse. Both those schools also have a few mens sports that the SEC don't offer that i'm sure the big 10 have as well. lacross and mens soccer, not that those are the deciding factor etc, and probably is the last thing these schools care about.

when the acc added cuse, BC, and pitt I lost all interest, league became a joke honestly in football.

 

FSU and Um add nothing to the SEC, which already has the State of Florida locked up, given how vast the UF fan base is in this State.
I think FSU, however, would bring tons of viewers to the BIG 10. I think the bigger problem would be for UM. If the Big gets FSU, they don’t need Miami. There’s as many FSU fans in South Florida as there is Miami fans.

UM is a small school with a fickle fan base, albeit with a hyper-inflated view of itself. They may be the odd man out.

 

I still do NOT ever want them or Miami in the SEC. They are dirty filthy sports program, and they would soil our Conference to the core. They would rot it out faster than UGA and Bama are.

Why should we help them with a lifeline of serious cash, and conference notoriety?

We don't need to give them a financial lifeline... they have lifewallet.. LMFAO!!

That's not going to help us, if fact it would be detrimental to our recruiting and standing in our state of Florida. There can be only one flagship university in the state of Florida, and there can be only one Florida school in the SEC... GATORS!

We are maxed out, I just wish we would reconsider staying in a 2 Division Conference.

 

Maybe FSU can start back the old metro conference?

sankey is the man but I never ever ever want FSU in the SEC. They can rot in hell.

Spur Dog’s words come back around. He always said winning the sec was more important than beating the Noles, and the semis went nuts back in the day. Turns out SOS was right after all.

“Wes Chandler was Percy Harvin before Percy Harvin was born.”

 

UNC and UVA are perfect for the SEC as far as expanding the conference footprint and adding two additional AAU schools to help with our academic standings.