Apparently the poll showing Trump beating Biden was an outlier.

Popular vote polls seem irrelevant. Need to see specific polls for AZ, PA, WI, GA, and FL.

 

Abortion, abortion, abortion. This and every other election in the near future will ride on this. Trans is just a distraction, reproductive rights will win the day.

 

For the love of God, we must rid ourselves of the ridiculous pro-slave state electoral college nonsense at some point. So embarrassing to the thinking individual!

 

Whatever the case, America: a nation of 330 million which hopes rest on Biden or Trump.

America.

 

I don’t understand why even shows national polls. It’s completely irrelevant. Show FL, GA AZ,NV,PA,WI, NC and that’s who wins. Not a national poll.

 

I can’t find the polls you are thinking about. One below is telling a different story (April).

https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article274385065.html

 

Any major party nominee starts at around 48%. It will always be close. Rs will "come home" to Trump in large numbers. It's all at the margins

 

I think elections ride on the economy and jobs. Biden is going to have a tough time if he doesn’t fire Powell. Powell is the mole who has pin to the grenade

 

I think its a slam dunk Biden wins the general popular vote handily. Now the spread of the 5-7 swing states is up in the air. All those swing states are all immensely better off now than they were 2 years ago but with all their right wing sites screaming bloody murder about nothing those states will be even closer. I still think Biden edges out either candidate by a sliver but I wouldn’t be surprised the other way either.

 

Not to mention the economy will be rocking and rolling in 24 and that will finally be reflected in 401Ks

 

Unless the gop crashes it with the debt ceiling drama.

 

This explains why the poll was an outlier. Essentially it oversampled Republicans/older voters, undersampled younger voters and was a poll of all adults rather than registered or likely voters.
What the New Poll Favoring Trump Got Wrong and the Pundits Missed

 

Unlikely, but a 14th amendment challenge may be popcorn worthy TV with SCOTUS.

I hope you are right, but all indications are an uncomfortable recession while campaigning. Trump has already shown his cards… this will be his opening.

 

Poll results you don't like. Bad poll, bad methods
Poll results you like. Good Poll and methods
You guys are way to transparent, already know the responses to this post.

 

Not to mention I believe it only sampled landline users.

 

Please put down the crack pipe.

 

Can't speak for other swing states, but in 2022, a Trumpian candidate in Lake lost to a non-descript D who basically hid during the campaign, refused to debate Lake, and basically ran on being sane, versus Lake's insanity. And Hobbs won by 17,000 votes.

Since then, the voting population in Arizona has likely shifted a little more blue. The older voting population skewed red, but the younger generation skew more blue. And more transplants from places like CA that move to AZ also skew blue.

Difficult to believe that Trump has won over any new group of voters since 2020. While moderates may not be gung-ho to vote for Biden this round, chances of them switching to Trump are remote in my opinion.