So the long summer stretch of all recruiting and summer strength and conditioning is approaching. Which begs the question of this thread............is UF "better", "worse" or "the same". I frequent numerous boards, UF podcasts and any source available to me, with GC being the primary one of course. So I'm asking? Is UF any better than at this point last year? My personal ratings based on the available information: Offense: 1) QB - I'm going "a step back" - AR was picked #4 in the first round, I think that answers that. Perhaps "depth is better? 2) O - Line - I'm going with last year we were further along. To many question marks for me to put this years group "ahead". 3) Recievers - Better 4) Tight End - Undecided 5) Running Backs - Better and deeper 6) FG kicking - Better 7) Return Game - Gotta be better ....right? 8) PPG Scoring: Step back 9) YPG: Step back Defense: 1) DLine: Better 2) Linebackers: Step back 3) D-Backs: BETTER! 4) Punting: Better 5) Special teams: Gotta be better ....right? 6) PPG allowed: Better 7) Yards allowed: Better Other: Recruiting - Definitely better as compared to this time last year! Staff - Better (but primarily based on experience / 2nd year) How does this translate? ............ IMO a record that could swing anywhere from 4 to 8 wins. Personal opinion: 6 - 6 regular season and UF wins the bowl (about time) to go 7 - 6 Recruiting: top 5 class
AR 15 going #4 is an indication of nothing. Gator trophy case is empty with him as the leader. Either CDM and CBN had no idea what they had with him on the roster or didnt know how to effectively maximize his collegiate potential or AR decided to play it safe and not get hurt and cash out on whatever potential the NFL thinks he has from their draft analysis....the highlight reel for him is weak in my opinion.
If a position or 2 are not sorted out yet, they will be in 24. It's transition from a huge mess. Aside from that, if we are not improved in every area on and off the field I'll be disappointed. If we have a legit coach and staff there can be no other way. Not really worried about record if the above is true. If it is, it means we win most. I'd love to see us pull out tough games with grit and strength. Especially on the road.
I already disagree 100% with #1. It's very easy to get enamored with someones potential, and then think we're replacing someones ceiling on the field. We are NOT replacing the #4 pick in the draft. And we're not replacing his enormous potential. We're replacing his college production, which was: - 54% completion % (meh), and very bad on short throws. - 17 TD's and 9 INT, on 393 attempts (meh) - Elite, all time great, athlete...impossible to replace those attributes. His spin move eluding the sack vs Utah was a thing of beauty. We don't have THAT on the QB roster in 2023. But we don't need THAT to be better. - But, unwilling to run....and made horrible decisions on the zone read. He was basically a non threat on those plays. He averaged 8 carries per game, and quite a bit were on broken pass plays. He was just not a willing runner last year. Not criticizing, just saying that was HIS production. And THAT's what we're replacing. The greatest QB athlete since Vick basically did 3-4 designed runs per game...lol...He's was not a willing runner last season. I am very certain he will be in the NFL. - Very low completion % on short throws, which of course stalls drives. Mertz has historically been much better on the shorter throws. You don't replace Player A, by using the same attributes with Player B. You maximize Player A with his skills....then you maximize Player B with his skills, and then compare their IMPACT on the game, using their own unique skill set. I am very confident that we'll replace AR's impact on the field in 2023. It won't look as sexy since we WON't have a long runs, or miraculous escapes, from the QB position. But in its own ways, we'll be better at QB in 2023.
For #2, I look at it this way: Take the top 7 in the rotation from 2022 and 2023, and ranked them in order of effectiveness. So, something like this (just an illustration to highlight the point): - Big O 2022 - Barber 2023 - Barber 2022 - Mazz 2023 - White 2022 - Eguakun 2023 - Eguaken 2022 - Tarq 2022 etc etc etc We are not replacing Big O, per se. It's whether the top 7 from 2023 will be better than the top 7 from 2022. If Mazz and Waites are healthy and ready, we'll be more than fine on the OL this season.
I was not impressed with Mertz or Miller’s deep ball throws in the spring game. Both came up short more times than not. BUT we do have speed & separation in the receiver room this year that we didn’t a year ago. We may have to Will Rogers our passing game a bit with a heavy load of short & intermediate throws. A 6.5 yds per attempt won’t look sexy but it can still be very effective and move the ball. The D takes a big step forward IMO. There will be a learning curve due to all the youth and lack of experience but our new DC has brought in some hyper energy and toughness that we didn’t have last year. I believe we had a +1 scoring differential last year and I’m gonna go out on a limb and say I think it’s +9 or better this year. We are no where ready to challenge UGA in the East but the 5.5 over/under win total that has been circulating is ridiculous. That’s an easy bet for the over.
While I agree with much of what you say I still believe QB play of 22 will be superior to 23. Hope I'm wrong of course!
I hear you bike, AR getting drafted #4 really has nothing much to do with our 22 season. Having said that, I still think the QB play of 22 will be better than 23 but I will be happy to be wrong on this point!
Good thread @Gatorhead! I like the thoughtful responses so far. Thanks everyone! The roster Coach Napier inherited was, perhaps, the weakest overall in comparison to the rest of the SEC of any incoming coach since before Coach Spurrier. Last year was the absolute new foundation being set on a complete Florida Football rebuild . . . along with some extra, but necessary, demolition. Now the new and better materials have started arriving and more are coming so we don't even have all the materials to work with here yet. However, I think we'll see the workmen practicing their craft and the beginning of creating something special. I'll be surprised if we don't see improvement across-the-board this year and continued much improved recruiting.
Thanks scooterp - Personally I just want CBN to keep the ship afloat in 23 with hopes of some big improvement in 24 and especially 25. Keep recrutin!!!!!
Like that post ET!!! It's hard to be patient as an SEC fan, especially at a program like UF but I'm all in with coach Napier and the staff. Obviously would love to see us get to 7 wins one way or another. I thought when we were 6-4 in 22 after the tamu and S Carolina wins we were on our way, but the train ran out of steam. Looking for a more disciplined group at all levels in 23. Just gotta build up that talent and keep Florida H.S. kids in state. I really am hopng for a top 5 class this cycle and it has started out well.
NO shade intended to our coach, but I see him as a system coach. That means learn his system. We didn't have the players to run his system. And it's a complex system... especially for the QB1.
Lol more AR hate on this thread There is 0.0% chance our current QBs are better than AR Mertz MAY get close to AR productivity, but that’s his absolute ceiling. What Mertz needs to do: 1. Take a big leap 2. WRs need to be much much much better 3. D needs to be much better I actually agree with OP and position group analysis. So 2 and 3 have a legit shot at happening. So there is a path for Mertz producing like AR
Qb is a wash OL might be better. WR way better TE is a wash (not much last year). RB better because of depth DL way better. LB is a wash CB is better Safety is better. ST should be better. I think we beat FSU,Vandy and UT this year.
17tds and 9 I t’s. AR did a lot of good but it won’t be terribly hard to surpass. It coul be way worse for sure but I’m hoping for more tds and less interceptions.
Rushing does exist. And AR rushing does help the RBs (zone read, spy, etc). Mertz has been in the season long negative rushing yards. Mertz will have to be a very good to great passer to equal AR (think top 20 nationally). He will have to be top 10 to exceed him.
