ESPN FPI projections for every game on Florida's 2023 schedule AT UTAH - Win probability: 29.7 percent MCNEESE - Win probability: 99.0 percent TENNESSEE - Win probability: 51.7 percent CHARLOTTE - Win probability: 96.3 percent AT KENTUCKY - Win probability: 48.4 percent VANDERBILT - Win probability: 90.4 percent AT SOUTH CAROLINA - Win probability: 58.9 percent GEORGIA - Win probability: 13.8 percent ARKANSAS - Win probability: 66.2 percent AT LSU - Win probability: 18.5 percent AT MISSOURI - Win probability: 58.1 percent FLORIDA STATE - Win probability: 50.3 percent https://247sports.com/college/flori...rankings-list-gators-2023--209948802/#2165928
Much better than the point spreads suggest...very encouraging. Currently we're a 10-point underdog to Utah, 7.5 to Tennessee, 21.5 to Georgia, and 16.5 to FSU at home.
Yep although if one goes strictly by the %'s we win 8. But remind me? When was the last time Gator Football went exclusively with the %'s?? I'm kinda hoping and praying we go 6-6 in the regular season. UF might even show up for a bowl this cycle...who knows? For me it's all about recruiting, talent aquisition and planning for the future. Gotta survive this year somehow. I think DJ will be a huge catalyst for UF's fortunes to change, for the better, that and landing top kids in Florida. Just gotta keep the ship afloat until CBN turns the worm!
That is good for an average of 6.8 wins. I built a simulation in R, and I ran it 100 times. I got an average of 6.99 wins, which is somewhat close to what we would expect, and I got the following probability distribution: 4 wins - 3% 5 wins - 15% 6 wins - 17% 7 wins - 26% 8 wins - 27% 9 wins - 8% 10 wins - 4%
Wait, we have a 50.3% chance of beating FSU, yet we're 16.5 point underdogs to them? Something doesn't seem right here...
Yeah, I noticed that too. There's no way we have a 50% chance to beat the Crims as things stand now. Obv that's 6+ months away so a lot can happen, but going by today- I'm at 30% at most.
Sure doesn’t. I don’t know why anyone would pay any attention to ESPN’s stupid made up index. Its pretty obvious the folks making their living setting betting lines don’t.
I'd take +16.5 vs F$U in a heartbeat. They aint THAT good. 7-5 should be a realistic expectation. Happy with 8 wins, sad with 6. Season is really going to turn on whether we have competent QB play.
Not so sure about beating them my friend. Kentucky actually secured a very good QB. Devin Leary is better than anything we've got. They replace a lot on defense but recruited well. Gone are linebackers Jacquez Jones, DeAndre Square and Jordan Wright, who had exhausted their eligibility. The same went for defensive backs Tyrell Ajian and Keidron Smith. And star defensive lineman Justin Rogers entered the transfer portal in January. Despite those departures, Mark Stoops' club is expected to reach the postseason for the eighth time in as many years, extending what is already a program record. At the end of the spring, the Wildcats are No. 24 in ESPN's latest preseason rankings. Projecting defensive depth chart for Kentucky football and transfer portal targets to watch (msn.com)
I dont think QB matters, if Cam is out, i think we win for sure, if he's in i still think we win. Utah always loses a game early, then starts kicking ass. Its just what they do...
