Gator signing bonuses

What kind of signing bonuses do UDFAs get?

 

I think we are probably closer on this than it seems.

I not trying to argue that he is ready or that there isn’t room to refine himself. If you were to design the best path, yours would be the one. But if you know you’re a top 5 pick passing on the extra year in college is worth the risk IMO. The difference between AR guaranteed money and Hooker (injury) guaranteed money is close to $20 million. I’m sorry, you can’t pass that up

 

3 people were picked before him so you ca certainly get higher than a top 5 (or 4 in his case). But no way would i have come back for another year of college

 

I would be worried that he did not improve at all, and his stock fell. He would be a fool to come back.

 

Assuming they make the team which is not even close to guaranteed

 

I agree on longterm and learning while you have the opportunity. I just look at AR and see 50% bust possibilities. He’s getting paid either way now. If he were a lower pick, there’s no doubt that another year or two increases his chances of being successful.

 

I was worried i'd be called a hypocrite since I've been saying for months AR should have come back. In the post you quoted above I said if he was my son I'd probably tell him to go.
I guess my position is that if there were 10 ARs, then 7-8 of them would benefit and make more money long term by coming back. Those IMO are the odds.
But the fact is that there is only 1 AR- and if he can get this kind of bonus money...Hmm....
Well, as I said, if he was my son, I'd have a hard time telling him to come back.

I wish the Colts could pay him and let him develop in college, but again, I know that's not the world we live in.
I think it would help AR a lot.

 

Exactly, I’m just scared for him being a bust. Bird in hand.

 

Examples are not worth much. Any 3 year guy that does well is a prodigy and those that don’t should have waited.
Should Peyton have waited? He started as a freshman so he had plenty of starts under his belt.
Take the money and time will tell.

 

First- by prodigy I'm talking about the top ranked recruit in the nation- as TL was and I think Tua was too.
Guys who scream NFL all-timers while in HS. That's a prodigy- and yes TL and Tua both were.
This is not some kind of hindsight.

I completely disagree that examples or data are not worth much. I'm a big data guy, but I understand many go by feelings.
And the data say that 7 of the top 10 QBs last year were 4-year guys. And 2 of the 3 that were not were, by my definition, prodigies.
That speaks volumes to me- again a data guy.

Speaking of data- Peyton did wait.
Famously Peyton Manning came back for his 4th year so he could beat the gators, win the SEC and the Heisman.
The beating the Gators didn't go so well for him, nor did the Heisman, but he did win the SEC.

And he did really well in the NFL so perhaps that 4th year did help him.
Which I guess is the exact opposite of what you are trying to say.

 

So then AR must be a prodigy… by definition

The question is how many QBs (or just players) come back when they are projected top 5 pick.

The answer is very few. Most QBs do not become top prospects until after 4 years. All the ones I can think of come from wealthy families… Manning, Noah, Leinhart, etc.

The odds of AR getting drafted higher after another year is a lot lower than him dropping.

There were more arguments for Trask coming back than AR. And if you want to just talk this year…Dexter could have easily improved his stock

If you are a near the top of the first round pick you ALWAYS should go pro. Getting to that second contract faster is critical

Polite was a 3rd rounder. You can’t possibly compare a top 5 pick with a 3rd rounder

The reason we didn’t get more time with AR is due to Mullen screwing up 2021. AR should have started from the jump

 

He precludes the option of having AR start in Mullen's offense in Mullen's last year. Hence getting 2 years as QB1 instead of just 13 games to start.

I never thought AR should come back nest year.

 

Where is his dad?

 

Agent's Take: 2023 NFL rookie contract projections for key Round 1 picks, with a rookie wage scale explainer

 

Careful with your credit cards, Ventrell ...

 

All unguaranteed money for UDFA's though, right?. They can be cut at any time.

 

AR is a prodigy? Umm- no.
Tua was a 5 star- and ranked the #1 QB in the nation. Than won the NC game as a freshman.
TL was a 5 star and ranked #1 QB in the nation. Actually he was #1 recruit overall.
AR was a 4 star, ranked 9th best QB and #204 in the nation.
I am not a recruitnik but I understand he was viewed as a project.
I'm a little surprised you don't know how highly rated Tua and TL were in HS.

THIS IS WHAT I MEAN BY PRODIGY. 5 stars, #1 in the nation out of HS.
Not a project.
You clearly are personally invested in AR and have been for some time.
I'm sorry that this data contradicts your belief that AR will be an all-time NFL great- but it is what it is.
It's possible AR does all that you say- and more. No one knows right now.
There are odds, but many beat the odds. Certainly AR can do that.

 

Yes, The data in this case will be inconclusive. Should he stay 3 or 4(or
5). You’re not getting a random sample of 3rd years.
The best measurable indicator of success in the NFL is draft number. Higher draft picks tend to do better. And they pay you more.
I’m going to wish for the best for him. It won’t be hard to be the best Gator QB ever in the NFL.

 

You said only prodigies get drafted highly after 3 years. AR got drafted highly after 3 years. You can’t shift the goal posts

I never said AR would be a NFL time great. I said 18 months ago that AR would be a very high draft pick in 2023. He was. Now we literally have people saying a top 5 draft pick should have went back to school because they are butt hurt. There is no economic and developmental rationale why a top 5 should return. The only reason is if they love college and that love trumps the economics. And that balance is only ever tilted towards returning for rich kids