War in Ukraine

FWIW. Not endorsing, just passing on

 

I can see the civil population leaving. I cannot see the Russian military being allowed to leave without a fight … except in case of revolution.

 

Putin Secretly Snubbed From Major Summit Over Arrest Fears

 

Ukrainian saboteurs at work. train carrying fuel and materials derailed and major power lines outside of St Petersburg brought down

Putin rocked by May Day explosions after 'saboteurs' derail train carrying oil (msn.com)

An explosive device derailed a Russian freight train believed to be carrying oil and construction materials to the front line in Ukraine.

Video footage, apparently taken not long after the attack at around 10.20am local time today, shows several carriages on fire having run off the tracks in the Bryansk region in Russia, less than 40 miles from the border.
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The explosion also comes as Alexander Drozdenko, governor of Leningrad Oblast, claimed on Telegram that a separate act of sabotage had destroyed key power lines outside of St Petersburg.

 

and Russia strikes back with cruise missiles taking out a major rocket fuel production facility in Ukraine. this one will definitely set Ukraine back

Massive Shockwave From Russian Strike May Have Been A Rocket Storage Facility Detonating (msn.com)
The massive explosion and ensuing shock wave seen in video from the Ukrainian city of Pavlograd in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was most likely the result of a giant secondary detonation. What seems to have been hit, although not confirmed as of yet, was a plant that is used for missile fuel and other highly volatile explosive applications. The facility has been a cause of great concern for locals in the past.

 

Some of the stuff deeper inside Russia could be internal dissent.

 

Russian MLRS facility caught fire after transformers blew up

Russian MLRS Weapons Factory Bursts Into Flames: Reports (newsweek.com)

A fire broke out Saturday on the property of a sanctioned Russian factory that is the country's sole manufacturer of multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS).

The incident was first reported by Kommersant, an oligarch-owned Russian newspaper, which cited a statement from the Kremlin's Ministry of Emergency Situations. The fire broke out on the grounds of the PJSC Motovilikha Plants in the central Russian city of Perm at around 8 p.m. local time, reportedly stemming from a transformer booth. A team was dispatched, according to the ministry, to handle the blaze, which had reportedly reached a size of 10 square meters.

"Today, a fire broke out at the transformer substation on the territory of the enterprise," the factory's press office said in a statement to Pravda. "The fire was promptly contained by the specialists of the Ministry of Emergency Situations who went to the spot."

 

Ouch. That sounds significant

 

This doesn't really belong here but I just found it mind blowing about percentage of GDP on defense spending before World War II, especially because back then we were the country that did not want to spend on defense. Lots goes into that, of course, but still the numbers were mind blowing

It also explains why once the US wss on a wartime footing, it was so able to vastly out produce the Axis powers, because it had so much more industrial capability that was unused

 

Fantasy Footballers peruse this thread, shake their heads and exclaim, “Come on guys, get real!”

 

Putin prepares Russia for defeat. He seems convinced that Ukraine's counter-offensive will be successful, and he's looking for ways to put lipstick on the pig and claim it took the "entire West" to defeat Russia.

Putin Grooms Russians for Defeat in Leaked Crisis Manual (yahoo.com)

So all you stooges and trolls out there (and you know who you are), make a note: the big news from Moscow is that Russia is upgrading its kindergartens. Russian students will be chewing on NON-toxic crayons for the first time in recorded history. Also, Russian lead paint for kindergarten schools will be made in six delicious new flavors. Make sure you go with that story, and not get dragged into any discussions about foreign policy.

 

Wen offensive?

 

I'm starting to get a bad feeling about our investment in Ukraine. Is there anyone out there who believes Zelensky wouldn't change sides if the offer was right? Like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, I'm starting to get the feeling we are arming our next enemy. I sure hope I'm wrong.

 

Who would he align with? He’s got an enemy to one side and people helping him on the other. And it’s not like all of a sudden he will come back to mother Russia and fight nato. He can’t align with China because that’s a defacto alignment with Russia. Same with Brics.
He can clearly see that we have the fire power to crush him if we chose to, so even if he wanted to, what’s he going to do?
Think we are good for the foreseeable future.

 

It would be the most China thing ever for Xi to come broker a peace between Russia and Ukraine contingent on Ukraine joining BRICS, and convince Zelensky that billions from China are better than billions from the US.

They play chess. We play tiddlywinks.

 

For the first time in a long time we are playing chess here. We are winning on three fronts - the war itself, dissolving Russia’s power and lowering China’s standing by blowing up the power of their supposed anti west alliance. Not to mention sending a strong message to China on Taiwan.
And polling in Ukraine is decidedly pro west and anti Russia. He would basically go against his entire country if he did that. And make the more powerful west his enemy. He’s not dumb.

IRI Ukraine Poll Shows Strong Confidence in President Zelensky, a Surge in Support for NATO Membership, Russia Should Pay for Reconstruction

So you are free to worry about that, maybe things change in a year, but for now I am not.

 

Good thing we don’t make foreign policy on “feelings.” If you have any evidence to back up those feelings, I’m willing to listen. But presently, from my perspective, the benefits of supporting Ukraine against Russia far outweigh the hazards.

 

Let’s just say you are correct, contrary to all current evidence. What do you suggest?

 

What's giving you the bad feeling?