War in Ukraine

Snyder's podcast I linked to above was taped in the first few months of the war. A point he made interesting though likely dated. At least then, the "Russian" fighters were largely from the distant Asian provinces. Many of them truly thought they were reclaiming territory that was undisputedly Russian, not in Putin's genocidal sense, but as if it were a Moscow suburb. They truly did not realize they were doing anything but fighting "separatists".

 

FYI. A Russian woman who is a baker is looking at prison time if she makes any more cakes with blue and yellow frosting that are unflattering towards the war effort. So much for freedom of speech in Russia (if anyone is gullible enough to believe there ever was such a thing).

Russian baker fined over anti-war cakes (yahoo.com)

 

From this report, it wasn't one tank, but more than ten tanks.

Fire in Sevastopol destroys over 10 tanks with fuel for Russian Black Sea Fleet — Ukrainian intelligence (yahoo.com)

That area cannot be correct. That would be almost 400 square miles, or a 20 x 20 mile area. No one spreads their oil/fuel tanks out that far. One of China's national petroleum reserves is in Ningbo, and has over 80 large (maybe 130' x 50'h) tanks in an area of about a third of a square mile.

 

Once all the Crimean large appliances have been stolen, that's when you cut it off and invade. There'd be nothing left for Ivan to fight for

 

Russia's once-proud navy is sinking into disrepair. It is suffering from neglect and sanctions.

Vladimir Putin’s once feared and almighty navy is sinking into a sorry state (yahoo.com)

Can't say I'm sorry to hear it.

 

You are on fire lately

 

They are pretty close together per this Google maps image:

 

Meh. Small loss. What use is naval fuel without a navy that can leave port?

 

Poor Putin, poor Russia..so much spontaneous combustion to deal with lately.

I'll take it just for the demoralizing effect.

 

precision strikes 20 km behind the contact line. odd as it seems, they continue to hit Crimea as if they are softnening it up. It would be a big bite to try and take Crimea back

Videos appear to show the aftermath of a precision strike by US-supplied HIMARS missiles on officers' quarters at a Russian base in Ukraine (msn.com)

HIMARS missiles destroyed the building where the officers of the Vladikavkaz garrison of the 58th Army were stationed This happened 20 km from the contact line, said reserve officer Oleg Marzoev.

 

My Belarusian partner still holds that Ukraine will take Crimea early.

Politically it makes sense. Takes away the ability for outside forces to puah Z to give up Crimea in negotiations

Militarily it makes sense as it protects your right flank.

 

It makes total sense as to why Ukraine wants to do it, yes. It makes no sense at all in terms of current capabilities and limitations … unless the Russian position in Ukraine is far, far weaker than most of us think.

 

That's what I'm thinking as well, with perhaps some hope that such capabilities to hit Russian targets well beyond the frontlines will force them into further miscalculations. Not a bad strategy, but I agree, retaking Crimea won't be happening anytime soon.

 

I just can’t help thinking that all the “imminent” Crimean Offensive is nothing more than a giant feint from their real target.

 

Omar! R.I.P. Michael Williams

 

Russia's big economic pivot to China fizzles out. China does not want crappy Russian goods. Trade with Russia is about the same as what China trades with Malaysia, and most of that is oil purchases. And Russia is not getting what it needs to survive the Ukrainian onslaught, like semi-conductors.

Russia's economy has little to offer China, and their growth in trade is more modest than it appears, analyst says (yahoo.com)

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/30/ukraine-says-it-controls-key-supply-route-into-bakhmut.html
Wagner claims they’re about out of ammo I. bakhmut,

 

Well, yeah. Ukraine does not appear to have the naval or airborne capability it would take to bypass the Russian lines (never mind trying to resupply such a force even if it did). So they would have to take the neck of the peninsula, which is a healthy distance from the current line of contact in terms of the pace of offensive operations in this conflict. Just eyeballing it, it looks like Ukraine would have to grab two to three times the area it achieved in its previous two successful offensives only to get to starting line for a move south on Crimea. Unless the Russian army and/or government collapses, I don’t see that as a realistic objective yet. Ukraine wins this war merely by not losing hugely and causing Russia unacceptable casualties. If they move on Crimea prematurely, then they accept risk of losing hugely.