Matt Miller's (ESPN) NFL draft picks

No matter where AR goes, his team will be trying to rebuild. That, coupled with his high draft position, means he'll have to play by year 2 - at the latest.

 

There's a reason why the Raiders are picking that high, can't coach and can't put a team together. None of the Top 10 teams are even looking at AR and it's why they are in the Top 10. Again, going to waste a 1st round pick on a kid that was surpassed by 25 other QBs in 7 statistical categories. He's at best a 2nd or 3rd round pick based on proven experience. Sure if you want to spend $35M on an unproven talent, go for it, but it's why the Raiders will always be watching the playoffs from the comforts of their couches.

What happens if he's not playing in Year 2? Even Trask isn't guaranteed to play next season with all the talk of getting Hooker if he is available when TB picks. FYI, I would have picked Hooker over AR because Hooker is a proven talent. He reads defenses extremely well and has a pretty good arm. Proof that he only threw 2 Ints all year which Kentucky had on AR twice in the same half.

 

Always amazed how little resect O'Cyrus gets for stoning a sure fire top 5 pick at DT in Jalen Carter.

 

Relax. It’s like drafting Hooker after his 2020 season. You can’t compare a 5th year covid senior with a sophomore.

 

Considering none of them have proven anything at the NFL level yet, every player in the draft is an unproven talent.

 

Completely understand all that. I just think he is an OG you only get once every other draft.

 

Torrence should have stayed another year? That’s a tough case to make. He will most likely be a 1st rounder.

 

I don’t think another year would elevate Torrence in the draft. I think it is matter of offensive guards not being seen as a premium compared to offensive tackles.

 

I’ve got a theory that these analysts play around with their mock drafts. They put out a lot of them and they need to be interesting. I’ve also got a theory that while it’s fun to acquire playmakers, when the draft gets going lineman are always at a premium. Torrence is already 23 years old. I don’t see how another year would help his stock.

I don’t know the difference. I looked quickly, 5-15mil over 4 years?

 

You are trusting that Levis is going 4th and Torrence lasts til 51? No way imo. That’s a hot take. I can’t buy it. We will see. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Torrence go before levis. But as they say, it only takes one team…

 

I'm basing it on college talent because that's all we have. All of the other players in the 1st round of the mock draft did something in college, either leading their team in multiple seasons in tackles, interceptions, batted passes, locking down an entire half of the field, or leading the nation in yardage, TDs, etc., AR has done none of those. Worse, he was very green against a number of good defenses, making bad play after bad play after bad play. You say Young is unproven, but I say he's more than proven. He's a proven winner, has proven his resiliency, has proven his leadership countless times. Also has the Heisman and won the CFP. His stats are phenomenal compared to AR's - besting AR if every single category except for rushing. What exactly has AR done? Give me one nugget that says AR should get a 1st round pick when there are 150 other players that had far better careers? I've look at his stats and based on stats, he's actually a 3rd rounder. I've seen well over 100 previous "potential" NFL players that didn't make it 3 seasons. People say he can run, but I say he won't be very effective. Most running QBs are pocket passers and very good passers and run only when they have to.

AR will go down as the greatest mediocre player in NCAA history if he gets picked in the 1st round and really I don't want to see another Florida Gator being the butt of jokes. I like the young man and want him to succeed and if he went in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, he would last longer in the NFL. I already get enough ribbing from SEC fans about Tim (the non-Christian fans) and I'm hearing a lot of them saying if AR goes in the 1st and he flames out, Florida QBs should be banned from all future 1st round draft picks. I hope he pans out but I feel sorry for the the 1st player in the 2nd round who should have been a 1st rounder. That's a huge dropoff in bonuses.

 

Stay another year? He was the best OG in CFB last season. Your stock can’t really get any better than that.

 

NFL first round draft picks get selected largely based on what a team believes they will be in the future, not based on what the player did in the past (aka college). You said Hendon Hooker is "more proven than AR,” well I would hope so considering Hooker is a grown man who played 5 seasons of college football and will be 26 years old by the end of his rookie season. If Anthony Richardson played 5 years of college football he'd have a bunch of gaudy stats and accomplishments that would make him look "proven" too.

Young has proven he can throw to (usually wide open) 5-star weapons while being protected by 5-star offensive lineman and coached by legendary coaches. A true test of Young's ability would be to insert him in the 2022 Gators offense and see how he fares and see how great his stats and "leadership" would be. College stats are meaningless when it comes to projecting what a player can do at the next level. Some dude named Brad Roberts from Air Force led the nation in rushing yards last season, your logic tells me you'd draft him over any other younger, more explosive, faster RB in the draft strictly because he was more "proven" in college.

People say a lot of things about college players and end up being dead wrong. The same way some folks are projecting AR to be a bust in the NFL, he could also end up being drafted by the right team and put in the right offensive system and flourish.

On the flipside, if AR ends up flourishing in the NFL, the 2022 Gators will go down as the greatest mismanagers of talent in NCAA history.

Luckily, NFL teams doesn't listen to boorish college fans when they make these kinds of decisions. NFL teams are rational-minded enough to understand that every player in the draft faced his own unique set of circumstances in college, and don't just lazily blame it on the program. I bet you there were a bunch of mouthbreathing college fans who held the belief “Stay away from Texas Tech QBs, they feast on bad defenses in the weak Big 12 and end up flopping when they get to the NFL"…and then boom, someone like Pat Mahomes comes along to destroy that narrative.

 

These are contradictory statements, no?

If AR becomes a great QB in the NFL, you can't blame Florida for "mismanaging" a guy who only played one season. You might as well say Ohio State mismanaged their talent by letting Burrow get away. And look at the huge leap he made in year two at LSU. Was Burrow "mismanaged" by LSU his first season?

I agree with the rest of your comments. If the NFL cared so much about stats, Danny Wuerffel would have been a 1st round pick and the Bills wouldn't have selected a Wyoming QB with a 56% completion percentage 7th overall.

 

I agree that it wouldn't be seen as mismanaging...it would make a lot of people take another look at the surrounding talent. A decent number of whom are hitting, or being escorted to, the portal.