Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!
  1. Gator Country Black Friday special!

    Now's a great time to join or renew and get $20 off your annual VIP subscription! LIMITED QUANTITIES -- for details click here.

Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorNorth, Feb 25, 2020.

  1. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

    25,032
    2,641
    1,868
    Apr 3, 2007
    You realize there are like 3 people here who agree with you? Everyone else knows you to be the ultimate source of Covid/vaccine misinformation. You will convince no one of anything other than your utter inability to understand science and analyze medical data.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Come On Man Come On Man x 1
  2. flgator2

    flgator2 Premium Member

    6,721
    689
    2,113
    Apr 3, 2007
    Gainesville
    [​IMG]
     
  3. QGator2414

    QGator2414 VIP Member

    18,299
    1,573
    1,308
    Aug 24, 2009
    Ocala
    You can go to my posts and add the numbers from the day like I did. It is a pain to do for sure. Since you have so many ages separated. And multiple amounts of shots. I always used two shots to be considered fully vaccinated.
     
  4. QGator2414

    QGator2414 VIP Member

    18,299
    1,573
    1,308
    Aug 24, 2009
    Ocala
    Actually a majority agree with me. Too hot does not represent what is happening in reality. But you will also get there my friend.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  5. QGator2414

    QGator2414 VIP Member

    18,299
    1,573
    1,308
    Aug 24, 2009
    Ocala
    It is posted with the hard data provided by England.
     
  6. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,149
    1,196
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
    It wasn’t a virus. It was carnage …

    Most doctors and nurses who worked through the great pandemic scare of 2020 would be aghast at any implication that they were knowingly terminating lives. As with most aspects of Covid-19, the pandemic response was orchestrated at a higher level, but this does not excuse any clinician who departed from the Hippocratic Oath to first do no harm. Ventilators killed, but as we shall discuss in Part 2, they also had a much wider, malign impact on society.

    The mad rush for ventilators in the Covid killing fields, Part 1 - The Conservative Woman
     
  7. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,149
    1,196
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
    FEMA still paying out $9,000 to families whose loved ones died from noble causes …

    upload_2023-4-18_8-13-55.jpeg
     
  8. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

    7,793
    860
    2,113
    Apr 3, 2007
    More data on how awful of a decision it was to close schools. Don't worry gang, the head grifter will try to make up some BS that we didn't know "at the time" that covid didn't spread in schools. That poster like he always has been is full of crap.

    In-person schooling is essential even during periods of high transmission of COVID-19

    "A systematic review including 40 studies with lowest risk of bias from 140 countries found little to no impact of school closures on COVID-19 burden."

    "The World Bank estimated that school closures affected 1.6 billion children at the end of 2021, plunging up to 70% of the world’s children into learning poverty, defined as being unable to read and understand a simple text by age 10 years.6 In the UK, school closures have resulted in an estimated £350 billion in lifetime earnings loss for the current generation of children.7 The World Bank estimate worldwide learning losses with a present value of US$17 trillion."
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  9. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

    17,730
    1,789
    1,718
    Apr 8, 2007
    I did. Several times. I got a different answer than you did. I could not find a valid way of analyzing the data that would give me the answer the vaccines weren't effective. Hence the reason for me asking you to show me what you did so I can get the same answer.

    Here is the data set you posted:
    Age-standardised mortality rates for deaths by vaccination status, England: deaths occurring between 1 January 2021 and 31 January 2022

    Of the 12 sheets in the file, which sheet should we be looking at, which columns on that sheet support your claim that the vaccine is useless?
     
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  10. QGator2414

    QGator2414 VIP Member

    18,299
    1,573
    1,308
    Aug 24, 2009
    Ocala
    Table 2

    There have been minor adjustments to the numbers I noticed as I did them each time as they updated. But nothing major.
     
  11. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

    17,730
    1,789
    1,718
    Apr 8, 2007
    Okay, looking at Table 2, I'm filtering for Cause of Death (column A) = "Deaths involving COVID-19", and then looking at the most recent month. Comparing those with a Vaccination status (column F) "Unvaccinated" with those who have "Second dose, at least 21 days ago" or "
    Third dose or booster, at least 21 days ago". Column H gives us the "Age-standardised mortality rate / 100,000 person-years". Filtering this way gives me 21 lines of data to look at.

    For ages 18-39, the unvaccinated have a mortality rate of 9.7, 2 doses are at 6.5, and 3 doses are at 2.4. Those who are vaccinated are much less likely to die than those who are vaccinated. Caveat here that all three of these statistics are noted as unreliable due to the small sample size. However, there is no overlap in the confidence limits for the unvaccinated and 3 dose groups, suggesting that we can interpret the differences between those groups as being significant.

    Ages 40-49
    Unvaccinated: 45.3
    2 doses: 19.9
    3 doses: 4.1
    Those who are vaccinated are much less likely to die than those who are vaccinated. Those who have gotten a booster are much less likely to die than those who only have 2 doses of the vaccine. Caveat here that the values for 2 doses and 3 doses are noted as unreliable due to the small sample size. Aain there is no overlap between the confidence intervals for the unvaccinated and 3 dose groups, suggesting that we can interpret the differences between those groups as being significant.

    Ages 50-59
    Unvaccinated: 161.6
    2 doses: 99
    3 doses: 10.3
    Those who are vaccinated are much less likely to die than those who are vaccinated. Those who have gotten a booster are much less likely to die than those who only have 2 doses of the vaccine.

    Ages 60-69
    Unvaccinated: 640.1
    2 doses: 571.4
    3 doses: 42.9
    Those who are vaccinated are much less likely to die than those who are vaccinated. Those who have gotten a booster are much less likely to die than those who only have 2 doses of the vaccine.

    Ages 70-79
    Unvaccinated: 1564.7
    2 doses: 2248.4
    3 doses: 155.3
    Notice that for old people, who were able to get the vaccine sooner than young people, having 2 doses further back in time is less protective. But as always, having had a booster results in much lower mortality rates.

    Ages 80-89
    Unvaccinated: 3810.3
    2 doses: 6624.9
    3 doses: 620
    Again, for old people, who were able to get the vaccine sooner than young people, having 2 doses further back in time is less protective. But as always, having had a booster results in much lower mortality rates.

    Ages 90+
    Unvaccinated: 10,231.9
    2 doses: 12,888.1
    3 doses: 1991.5
    Again, for old people, who were able to get the vaccine sooner than young people, having 2 doses further back in time is less protective. But as always, having had a booster results in much lower mortality rates.


    What did you do with this data differently from what I did that gave you the idea the vaccines are useless?
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  12. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,149
    1,196
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
    Reminder: since there are no viruses, vaccine efficacy debates are meaningless. The only meaningful category is vaccine harms. Look to staggeringly high excess deaths in highly-vaccinated countries
     
  13. QGator2414

    QGator2414 VIP Member

    18,299
    1,573
    1,308
    Aug 24, 2009
    Ocala
    The hard count of deaths with Covid shows exactly who is at risk. Table 2 provides this for you. Shoot the most recent will show around 95% of Covid deaths are fully vaccinated because that is the most vaccinated population and that is the group it is most dangerous to. That said…most of them likely had seroprevalence as well.

    This shot should have never been approved imo for young healthy people. Approval definitely should have been halted for healthy people at the first safety signal signs…
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  14. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,149
    1,196
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
     
  15. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

    12,140
    1,152
    1,618
    Apr 9, 2007
    You've fallen for the base rate fallacy. Most of the people dying from COVID in the UK are vaccinated, but that's because nearly 90% of people over 12 in the UK have been vaccinated. And for those 50 and older, who are at the most risk, those numbers are 95% or higher.

    No vaccine is perfect. All allow breakthrough cases, and with COVID, some of these cases are still, unfortunately, deadly. Meaning, even if 100% of the population was vaccinated, we would still have COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. And in a country with 100% vaccinated population, then 100% of the deaths would be from vaccinated. But that doesn't mean the vaccine doesn't save lives.

    It's why instead of just looking at base number of deaths in each group, we also must look at population size of each group, and judge deaths per capita in each group. When you do this, like @philnotfil did for us so graciously, the vaccine efficacy becomes obvious. For each age cohort, the vaccine lowers the risk of severe COVID and saves lives. In other words, if the population in the country with 100% vaccinated was X, and there was a mirror country where the population was the same, but was 0% vaccinated, the country with 0% vaccinated would see significantly higher death totals from COVID.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  16. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

    6,707
    1,374
    3,103
    Oct 11, 2011
    [​IMG]
     
  17. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,149
    1,196
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
    The idiocy of believing that other people’s dead cellular debris will kill you.
     
  18. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

    12,140
    1,152
    1,618
    Apr 9, 2007
    This contradicts with this study finding, which looked at the impact of school closures in 130 countries.

    Early workplace and, particularly, school closures were associated with the lowest Covid-19 wave one mortality rates across 130 countries. Focusing on protecting individuals from social interactions by targeting more ‘compulsory’ places (including schools and workplaces) as opposed to more ‘voluntary’ interactions and changing behaviours of those with lower individual-risk appear to have been most effective strategies mitigating early Covid-19 mortality.
    Not going to argue closing schools had a negative effect on kids. Of course it did. But as your article states, the closure of schools early in COVID was based on previous mitigation efforts from prior pandemics; mainly the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918. With little to no knowledge how COVID would act in schools in the Spring of 2020, it made sense to follow best practices from prior pandemics when it came to Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions.

    There's also the practicality issue of keeping schools open during the early phases of COVID. About 29% of all US school teachers are over 50, already putting them at higher risk. If they have one more comorbidity such as asthma or diabetes, they are now in a very high risk category. We had plenty of stories from around the country about teachers not wanting to return to the classroom because of COVID, like this one from Arkansas, this from Chicago, and this from Arizona. Teachers are already underpaid and underappreciated, and many schools are suffering from a teacher shortage. How would the quality of education been had schools stayed open, but 10% of the teachers refused to return?

    Pandemics put us in no-win scenarios. With the vaccine lowering the odds of severe COVID, there is no argument that schools need to remain open today. But back in Spring 2020, with no vaccine and a lot less information on the virus? We were going to lose one way or another, and kids' education was going to suffer one way or another.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  19. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,149
    1,196
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
  20. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

    7,793
    860
    2,113
    Apr 3, 2007
    Told you the grifter would come along...

    Sometimes you just can't fix stupid.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1