Really good column by Noah Smith about why China will remain a global rival and will not recede. It’s manufacturing output and concentration in combination with geopolitical changes that will undermine ideological polarity mean that China will only grow as a substantial player. I remain a bit more optimistic than Smith about the lure of an anti-authoritarian message, presuming we can continue to model it domestically, which remains in doubt. 2023 is when the empires strike back
Russia is initiating "combat readiness drills" of its Pacific fleet. The article indicates that Russia may want to signal its willingness to support a Chinese invasion of Taiwan (which would be a bad idea), but I suspect that it is also to convince China that taking North Manchuria (Vladivostok) would be a bad idea. They also want to intimidate Japan and prevent them from supporting Ukraine. Russia is burning up what's left of its cash doing this while trying to defeat Ukraine. By the end of the Ukraine adventure, Putin won't have two nickels to rub together. ISW explains why Russia suddenly started Pacific Fleet's combat readiness checks
“If the Chinese Communist Party invaded Taiwan today, we would not be well positioned to defend our friend, our interests, or American values in the Indo-Pacific,” Gallagher says.“ LOL, “American values” … China Is Preparing For War; Is The US Ready? | ZeroHedge
Taiwan starts gearing up for a Chinese invasion. Surprisingly, Taiwan spends one thirteenth the amount that China spends on defense. Considering that China will likely not be able to bring one thirteenth of its military to bear on Taiwan (because of Taiwan's small size), and the fact that Taiwan is buying U.S. weapons (while China is using knock-offs) and getting U.S. training, Taiwan might have a decent chance against China. China could probably capture the coastal cities without too much difficulty (although they would take a lot of casualties), but Taiwan could hold out in the mountains for as long as the food and ammunition held out. They realize that they have to stockpile weapons and ammunition now, because once the war starts, it will be difficult for the U.S. to re-supply Taiwan. The article mentions that the key for Taiwan is asymmetric warfare, including the use of small, portable weapons. Also, Taiwan extended the mandatory military service period from four months to twelve. A weapons stockpile and asymmetric warfare: how Taiwan could thwart an invasion by China -- with America's help | CNN
Last week’s encirclement of China, by China (remember: One Nation Policy) proof that the U.S. cannot splinter China.
Don't be dense. No one is trying to splinter China. Just trying to protect the freedom of an island that has never been ruled by the communist Chinese government in power in Beijing, who is using a flimsy context of what it controlled under its feudalistic emperor system in ancient history to justify a possible invasion. It's been over a hundred years since China had any authority over Taiwan. If France ever made claims on countries that it captured under Napoleon, half of Europe would be at war. Europe, suffice to say (and fortunately), is a little more mature and pragmatic than China, and is living in the here and now, and not attached to some fantasy from centuries ago. If you want to go back a little further in history with China's foolish mentality, you could argue that China belongs to Mongolia, since Genghis Khan captured most of it. Or you could argue that most of the Mediterranean belongs to Italy, since the Romans captured and ruled over it long ago. Don't even ask what Macedonia could claim based on the conquests of Alexander the Great.
Honest question for you, since you seem to follow the politics and trends in SE Asia quite a bit. My wife, a dual Taiwan/U.S. citizen will visit her family in May. My Mom, who is generally very poorly informed, is claiming she shouldn't go to Taiwan. Your thoughts? Here's a kicker: Her family plans to travel with her to mainland China during her stay. That's where I get concerned. I'm not worried about her going to Taiwan, but would def worry if somehow the Chinese discovered her dual citizenship and used it as an excuse to pull shenanigans. Is that a legit concern in your opinion?
Hello, McFly! You missed the sarcasm. The US is schizoid in that it formally recognizes the One Nation policy and, at the same time, is fomenting Taiwan independence. In short, the US is playing with fire. Beijing is ready for war in a way that D.C. is not.
I'm certainly not an expert. My wife is also headed to Taiwan this summer, so I think that part of the trip is at least relatively safe in my way of thinking. Traveling to China should generally be o.k. if no one in the group participates in protests or have any history of writing bad things about the party or the country in general. I have not been to China in about a decade, so I am not as familiar with the tone of the country towards foreigners as I used to be. There are a lot of businessmen traveling back and forth between the two countries routinely. To be on the safe side, she could transit through a third country. Chinese people will recognize her accent as not being local, of course, even if she speaks perfect Mandarin. My wife has visited China a few times, but not recently. You might be able to register her with the U.S. Embassy in China, so they will be aware that she's in the country and maybe be able to react faster if there is a problem, or advise her if she needs to do something. Smart Traveler Enrollment Program
The other part of the "One Nation" policy is "Two Systems", meaning that the Taiwanese would be free to govern themselves. Therefore, the "One Nation" part is more semantics than anything else. The only reason that Taiwan thought that was a good idea back in the day was that Chang Kai-Shek thought for a long time that he might have a chance, with enough support, of taking back China and ruling both countries. He never got the support he wanted as the U.S. got tired of throwing money at him. Once China started industrializing, the idea was hopeless. China thought the policy was a good one as it opened the door for them to find a way to take over Taiwan like they did Hong Kong under a similar policy. The difference being that Britain handed over Hong Kong to China while no one handed over Taiwan to China. Also, Taiwan saw what China did with Hong Kong, and have no desire to follow suit. Jimmy Carter made a mistake by recognizing China without a way to separate Taiwan as a separate country. The U.S. does not have to be ready for war with China. Taiwan does.
Two Chinese citizens were arrested in New York for running a Chinese police station in the city. US arrests two for setting up Chinese 'secret police station' in New York
Taiwan is buying 400 Harpoon land-launched anti-ship missiles from the U.S. If even half of them hit China's ships, China's navy will be in trouble. Taiwan to buy 400 US anti-ship missiles to face China threat -Bloomberg News
China moves toward ban of certain rare earth metal exports to the rest of the world, in a bid to keep high-tech advantages at home. This will force other countries to allow China to make parts or even entire products for them. Things will get a lot more expensive but with lower quality. And it will take a lot of manufacturing jobs away from Americans and Europeans. Why China Is Banning Rare Earth Metal Exports
I think Macron is an idiot, but he made a valid point in a Trumpian kind of way, bumbling into it. It’s like we are in a death spiral with China now and both sides are doing their best to make an eventual war inevitable. And all this will do over time is reduce Chinese dependence on these products, even if there will be a rocky period. China loses all of that foreign revenue, and the price domestically there will fall.
I think it's temporary. China not selling RE metals is like Russia not selling oil and gas (once other countries are willing to buy from them again). China will get backed up with metals that they can't turn into products in the short term, and no income for the money spent on mining them. Other countries (like Australia) are increasing their own production of rare earth metals, and the U.S. is starting up a processing operation for the Dept. of Defense, I think possibly for the mine in California. Australia challenges China in mining for essential elements
I read a story once of someone being arrested once they set foot in China for something they posted online in their own country. Truth is if you've ever posted something negative about China online you could be arrested by the Chinese government if you ever visit there.
That is more true of current and former Chinese citizens. Arresting foreigners once they set foot in China creates a high potential for an international incident and the backlash that follows. They may deny you a visa to visit China, but they would be unlikely to arrest you once you arrive, unless you start a protest or something. And even then, they would be more likely to kick you out of the country than arrest you.
