A few weeks ago our son took his mother to therapy for her knee. While waiting on her he observed three men in their early 60's also getting rehab for shoulder and knee after surgury. They were all complaining about not being able to hire young men due to physical work they do, all are in the building trade. All were wondering out loud at who is going to take up their work when they no longer can do it. This generations view of what the "American dream" is, is not what my generations was when we were starting out. They certainly do not have the work ethic. Give them a phone filled wth game apps, some food and water and a tent to live in and you might be surprised how happy many of them would be.
You hit the nail on the head. 60 year old men having knee and shoulder surgery which is likely related to wear and tear on their bodies from work. This new generation is smart. Why tear up your body working in the elements while you can preserve your body and make the same money doing something else? Work smarter not harder
Inflation decelerating rapidly now. YOY fall below 5% https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/cpi-march-2023-.html
All trades seem to be having trouble finding consistent labor these days. I'm sure all the hurricanes in Florida haven't helped. But even finding lawn maintenance people is difficult. I'm not gonna cast stones since I don't even want to do my own yard work, lol. It's not entirely new though - a lot of outdoor jobs have been hiring or subcontracting Mexicans and Central Americans for many years. I have a ton of respect for those guys doing roofing jobs in the Florida heat.
Fed is expecting a recession now too. But they are blaming it on the banks. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/fed...cause-a-recession-this-year-minutes-show.html
'A credit crunch has started' as banks tighten lending by the most on record, Morgan Stanley CIO says
There are plenty of jobs that don't tear up your body. And many of the jobs that can result in injuries would not cause those injuries if people took better care of themselves (eat right, get exercise, don't put on excess weight, etc.). Carrying extra weight around is probably the biggest cause of worn-out knees. Working "smarter" may turn out to be dumber in the long run. Sitting at a desk and staring at a computer all day is not good for the eyes or the circulatory system. In many cases, you can make more money working at a trade than you can with many jobs requiring computer skills. Ask a plumber what their hourly rate is. I'm sure carpenters and electricians make good money also. If you have good eyes, join the military and become a pilot, and then work your way towards becoming an airline pilot. Some pilots make about $200k a year. Airlines are expecting a shortage because over half of their pilots are expected to age out in the next 15 years.
Good report. Should make everyone happy. Grew GDP but not too much. People will scream either way. Now this is just stupid: At 1.1% GDP growth the moron thinks it shows demand is high. I swear anyone in financial media is not worth a shit. If prices are rising on 1.1% growth it ain’t demand. It’s profits and supply.
The concern with it is that 2 percent was expected, so it could be slowing faster than the fed expected too, and that they overshot their interest rate hikes. The next few months will be interesting. Short term though, yes minimal growth is ideal. As for the Citi woman, she is saying that there’s a divergence between business activity and consumer activity, that will have to get rectified over time. Business were overstocked, so they slowed down first, those lost orders will trickle back through the labor market and slow growth. But until the consumer demand catches up to that loss and slows, inflation is still real. Or consumer demand forces new inventory orders and inflation stays an issue for a longer stretch. This is all being skewed by the money people saved during the pandemic. Having reserves has made people less cautious. Either way, it’s a messy incongruent picture.
Not to be difficult but you expressed concern the GDP is slowing too fast and concern that the spending is too much still driving inflation. I have to shake my head. Here is what I saw: Personal savings increased to 4.8% from 4.0% in Q4 After 4 quarters of reduced spending on goods they rose in Q1 Services in line at 2.3% no real trend changes Residential market has been a mess all last year but stabilized to -4.2% Inventories are right sizing from overstocked 2022 numbers, non farm down -2.5% Honestly looks really good to me. Being in the consumer products market I'd like to see some more growth but it's good enough.
Another indication of the recession: west coast ports have gone from congestion to crickets. West Coast Ports Went from Congested Chaos to Alarming Quiet. It’s a National Problem. (yahoo.com)
