War in Ukraine

The bellwether of perfidy, the UK MOD, having to acknowledge the beginning of the end for Bakhmut.

 

Don’t be shocked to see Belarus eventually reunify with Russia. That and the four new oblasts would increase the population of Russia by 17 million.

 

So a little more has come to light now. The DoD has acknowledged that the files are illegal photographs of real documents but that there have been some clear (and not entirely expert) alterations of specific data. Specifically, whoever manipulated the data inflated U.S. estimates of Ukrainian casualties and reduced U.S. estimates of Russian casualties. So obviously a Russian or pro-Russian source is behind the espionage, unlike what I first thought. In my experience, the sources of leaks such as these are almost always discovered. Someone is going to do hard time over this one. No sweetheart deals or equivocation about “overclassification” or “everyone does it.”

Documents Detailing Secret U.S.-Ukraine War Plan Against Russia Leaked on Social Media

 

Ukraine war plans leak prompts Pentagon investigation

The latest documents were found on Twitter and other sites Friday, a day after senior Biden administration officials said they were investigating a potential leak of classified Ukrainian war plans, include an alarming assessment of Ukraine’s faltering air defense capabilities. One slide, dated Feb. 23, is labeled “Secret/NoForn,” meaning it was not meant to be shared with foreign countries.

Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official, said the leak of the classified documents represents “a significant breach in security” that could hinder Ukrainian military planning. “As many of these were pictures of documents, it appears that it was a deliberate leak done by someone that wished to damage the Ukraine, U.S., and NATO efforts,” he said.

One analyst described what has emerged so far as the “tip of the iceberg.”
....
By Friday afternoon, they had their answer. Even as officials at the Pentagon and national security agencies were investigating the source of documents that had appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, another surfaced on 4chan, an anonymous, fringe message board. The 4chan document is a map that purports to show the status of the war in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the scene of a fierce, months long battle.
​

Questions

(1) Does NOFORN include Ukraine? Even if the information is shared with Ukraine it is clear the US is directing the war in Ukraine not Zelensky.
(2) What other information will be dropped in the near future?
(3) If this is a hack did it occur in Ukraine or the US?
(4) Does the hacker(s) have copies of the original documents.
(5) If a hack did it occur in Ukraine or the US?
(6) Will we see other documents concerning China and the Middle East?​

Observations

(1) The US hasn't denied the information is completely false so there must be some truth to the documents.
(2) The US is investigating the leak and believes this to be a hacking operation.
(3) From the report the material includes information on Ukraine as well as China and the Middle East.
(4) Nothing has been reported about the hacking of the information. Not that the US would admit if it was.
(5) The information leaked are photo copies of the documents.
(6) Given what has been reported we can't rule out an internal source versus a hack.​

 

When 20+% of the country loves Putin more than America, it stands to reason that there are people in sensitive roles that are working against US interests

 

Well, there are Americans who expect better of America. They’re called Good Americans.

 

My opinions only:

1. NOFORN means NOFORN. There is a special classification for materials meant to be shared directly with Ukraine, some of which starts out as NOFORN before being reclassified. It does not usually have anything to do with wanting to hide information from an ally as much as ensuring an enemy does not inadvertently learn something through an ally’s knowledge. Another factor is disguising the source of intelligence. Maybe, for instance, we are happy to tell Ukraine that we have identified the date and place of Russia’s next offensive, but we don’t want them to know that our source is a Russian general. Your observation that we are “directing” the war instead of Ukraine reads like it’s supposed to be some kind of revelation. Of course, we are giving Ukraine guidance and advice, and I would say we have every right to, given how much we’ve invested. But if you think that Ukraine is not the ultimate decision maker, then that conclusion is erroneous. I can think of at least three occasions where we strongly advised Ukraine to take (or not take) certain strategic actions and they, while acknowledging our guidance, went against it. To Ukraine’s credit, in the three instances that I’m aware of, Ukraine made the right call. There are probably other instances that I am not aware of that are good examples of where we were right and they were wrong, but the point stands: on the whole, Ukraine follows U.S. guidance but in the end makes its own decisions.
2. No idea. But so far nothing dropped has been particularly surprising. I thought it was an intentional leak at first to reveal to Russia the scope of Western support so that the average Russian would understand just what Putin has put them up against and how much death and destruction lies ahead.
3 and 5. The NOFORN suggests the espionage took place in the U.S., and the materials being photographs of documents rather than electronic copies suggests that they were illegally copied inside a secure area. Further, “hacking” in the sense you mean it is really only possible when someone has classified materials on an unclassified server, like the Hillary Clinton situation. For lack of a better description, classified servers are not physically connected to the same internet we use. You have to have some form of physical access.
4. Whoever accessed the original material appears to have photographs of the material. At some point, someone, who may or may not be the original enemy agent, appears to have altered some of the documents to make the war appear as if it is going better for Russia and worse for Ukraine than the U.S. estimates. This, to me, is the most significant indicator of Russian concerns: despite having accessed and released Top Secret U.S. materials in what should be a huge information operations victory, Russia is still terrified to let its people know how many casualties it has sustained and how few comparative casualties it has inflicted.
6. We will see. I only expect release of materials that are meant to embarrass the U.S., so if Russia uncovered materials, for instance, that demonstrate how vulnerable we’ve learned its or China’s air defenses are, you won’t see that. Information that embarrasses us but also embarrasses one of Russia’s partners probably also won’t come out. So, for instance, evidence of Iranian duplicity during the nuclear deal probably won’t come out yet because it embarrasses Iran as much or more than it embarrasses us. Same with the evidence that China knew a lot more about COVID than it reported publicly in late 2019. I suppose some of the revelations from Afghanistan in 2021 would (will) embarrass the Administration if (when) they come to light, but we were pretty maxed out in the humiliation stemming from that debacle. I’m just not sure how much currency Russia gets out of cranking up the embarrassment from that. But we will see.

 

Poland sending 200 IFV's to Ukraine in the "nearest" future.

Zelensky: Poland to send 200 Rosomak infantry vehicles to Ukraine

 

The good news for students in Russia's military academies: they get to graduate early.

The bad news: they all have to go to Ukraine to die. Specialists get to live a little longer, however.

Russia to hold early graduation from military universities due to losses in Ukraine

 

Brazil wants Ukraine to trade Crimea for peace. Ukraine says no. I think Zelenskyy should tell Brazil that he'll give up Crimea as soon as Brazil gives up the Amazon River basin to Venezuela.

Brazil also refuses to send shells and ammunition to Ukraine.

‘Ukraine does not trade its territories’ — Ukraine to Brazil about Crimea

 

While unfortunate I would take Lula over Bolsinaro. I suspect the previous president of Brazil would take his cue from Trump and provide aid and comfort to Putin.

 

How does the lethal aid, instrumental to the successful defense of Kyiv in early 2022, which Obama denied and Trump provided, fit neatly into your narrative about which Americans are good and which are bad when it comes to defending Ukraine from Russia?

 

Your time lines conveniently do not address the realities on the ground post Feb. 23rd 2022.

Nor does it take into account Trumps repeated verbal support for Mr. Putin since that time. I also find your defense of Trump disappointing considering his frequent attacks on the military and his abominable comments about a real American hero, John McCain. Someone who did not use privaledge to draft dodge.

While I appreciate your position regarding President Obama s poor decision making
regarding Ukraine, I'm afraid sending a few javelins to the the sector hardly carries the traction you seem to suggest.

Throw in Trumps efforts to disband the NATO alliance, defund it and untie foreign policy knots tied since Tehran in WW2 and I'm afraid I will have to disagree with your efforts to throw sunshine on Trumps Ukranian foreign policy.

 

Ukraine recapturing Crimea. Lolz…

 

And every one of them has a damn red hat that was made in China.

 

Just gonna quote this for posterity

 

You can post this for posterity as well …

Ukraine recapturing Crimea, LOL.

 

Of course the losses are catastrophic-Ukrainian soldiers are parents, workers, artists, engineers, teachers, mechanics, etc. They shouldn’t have to be defending their country from an invading Russia.

 

Sad that this post got laughed at. We have someone taking a lot of their time to post some very informative material and you laugh at him when he makes a completely accurate assessment of things. At least explain why the post is funny to you. The drive by laughs and come on man’s are so weak.