War in Ukraine

On topic:

U.S. journalist detained in Russia on espionage charges

Dial goes click

 

There is only one takeaway here: Russia wants all independent media out of the country post haste. And this is a pretty good way to get it. I would certainly pull out all of my reporters.

 

One thing that needs saying about the spring offensives, is that Russia here has a distinct advantage of time. You see, there is no pressure on Russia to launch an offensive, no time ticking down to an unspoken ‘deadline’ in the same way there is for Ukraine. Ukraine has to show its Western partners something big and successful or support will wither away. Even if it’s not ready and stands no chance, Ukraine must launch a major action within the next month or two. Zelensky himself stated yesterday that without continued US support, Ukraine will lose.

SITREP 3/29/23: Bakhmut Pincer Tightens

 

Absolutely.

Let's see if Gershkovich is used politically/ diplomatically here or if it's nothing and he simply joins the ranks of Westerners in Russian prisons.

 

Putin doesn’t want the West to see what’s really going on in Russia ...



Oh wait, that’s what’s going on in France.

 

why any US citizen would remain in Russia without diplomatic protection is beyond my understanding and I have a hard time feeling any empathy for them.

 

Doubt he gets released as long as there are hostilities, unless it’s a trade. He’s good leverage and pub for them:

 

These have to be trumped up charges. How can a journalists make for good spies ? They can’t even get basic facts right.

 

A clue to why he was being detained apparently he’s been detailing how Russia’s economy is in the shithole not just now but for the long term. Sanctions and the reduction in the labor force (conscripted, KIA, horribly maimed, hiding in basements fled the country. Make their already bleak outlook (poorly educated alcoholics with no tech industries to speak of) even bleaker). There are parallels to circumstances that led to Gorbachev. I see a coup coming within 24 months still with kleptocrats in power but a more friendly face to the west.

WSJ Reporter’s Latest Piece Might Offer Clues to Why He Was Detained By Russia for Being a Spy

Feel bad for him, and journalists make these decisions all the time (braver than I would be) but he had to think this was a likely outcome.

 

US/NATO trapped in its own narrative. When you’ve convinced your populations that you’re winning and cementing your primacy in the world, how do you break it to them that you’re in shambles ?

L’Entente Is a Bitter Pill for the West

 

Couldn't get me to go to Russia now. It would be like having a destination wedding in North Korea...what could possibly go wrong?

 

Any American outside the Embassy is insane to be in Russia, IMO.

They may expect Brittany Greiner treatment. Using listerine is probably considered pushing hard drugs there if your an American.

 

China either. Had thought about making a trip to China in 2 or 3 years but with the current state of affairs and tact that Xi has taken, I'll avoid China as there is a lot of world out there to see where I don't have to worry about becoming a political pawn.

 

and here is the spy they will want in exchange

Washington indicts Russian spy posing himself as Brazilian citizen (yahoo.com)

The case of a GRU spy, a Russian native of Kaliningrad, who studied in the United States as an alleged Brazilian citizen and almost got a job at the International Criminal Court, but was eventually exposed and ended up in prison, is on trial in Washington [GRU is the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the General Staff of the Armed Forces – ed.].

Source: The Washington Post, citing anonymous US, European, and Brazilian officials, as well as materials from court proceedings in Brazil and an indictment in the USA

At the end of last week, the US Ministry of Justice sent the indictment against Victor Muller Ferreira to the Federal Court. According to officials and court records, his real name is Sergey Cherkasov, and he had spent nearly a decade building the fictitious Ferreira persona. He was exposed last year.

The charges brought before the court resulted from years of work by the FBI. Among other things, the investigators got access to the materials collected by the Brazilian authorities and also received permission to meet with Cherkasov-Ferreira, who is currently in custody in São Paulo.

 

the russian economy is in trouble due to demographics. can't find the piece but Russian population growth is below replacement number, lots of middle aged men dying early from alcoholism brought on by despair and lack of hope, lots of people leaving, all the dead and wounded from the war, and nobody wanting to immigrate to Russia. The US, Germany, and others have similar demographic problems but are destinations that lots of people want to immigrate to. Russia and China, not so much. The sanctions piled on top of the labor shortage have f'd the Russian economy for decades to come and the oligarchs know it but are too afraid to say it out loud.

 

We better get Whelan as well and the embassy teacher who had 14 grams of pot.

 

Putin et al also have to know that, which may factor into their line of reasoning being along the lines of "if we are going to act, now is the time".

 

It's stunning that mighty Putin and his #2 military in the world can't take Bahkmut.

Personally speaking I was expecting a Russian breakthrough this month.

Apoarantly they are reverting to digging trenches ala ww1 and opting for a stalemate in hopes of holding on to some of their illegally aquired territory.

From my perspective Putin has destroyed his personal prestige and certainly that of Russia.

I hope the Ukranian counteroffensive rolls through Crimea and shames that wanna
be Czar into a balcony leap himself.

 

Putin has more nukes than we have eggs. So, push, push! PUSH!!!

 

Agree with your surprise to the first point. Russia keeps underwhelming at all disciplines of warfare. Every time I thing they have hit rock bottom and are going to start climbing out and smacking Ukraine down I end up being pleasantly surprised at how wrong I was.

I also agree with your hope in the last paragraph. But I hope for that in the same sense that I hope Florida wins a national championship next season, and Georgia, Alabama, UTk, LSU, and SWAC all have losing seasons followed by NCAA probation.