Russia losing customers of military equipment to the U.S., because they are struggling to make enough to fight in Ukraine. Ukraine war throws wrench in massive Russian arms deal after they miss delivery, India says It will be interesting to see if India becomes a permanent customer of the U.S., especially with their economy improving and the reputation of the Russian equipment taking a beating with the miserable showing in Ukraine.
It costs Russia much less if Putin keeps Belarus as a satellite state. Especially, if he wanted Belarusian troop support. Lukashenko will already agree to the order without the annexation and if there is any upheaval, Lukashenko would be left to deal with it. That’s the way Putin wants it. Much more convenient that way and he achieves the same result, with less risk. (what muted risk there is) But you keep talking of this upheaval in Russia that is very unlikely to materialize and now you’re talking about the same in Belarus. Understand Lukashenko has been ruling that country with an iron fist for the past 22~ years. He is just as capable of maintaining his grip on power as Putin is. Perhaps better, in fact. If Putin wants Belarusian troops, they will be sent and the Lukashenko regime will come down hard on any resistance, as they have already shown several times in the past 22 years. Putin needn’t annex Belarus for this to take place.
Belarus is already firmly in the sphere. It wouldn’t be a victory. Putin has lamented the dissolution of the USSR as the worst thing that ever happened. Ie he’s very comfortable with the idea of multiple republics being “separate but not really separate” ala the USSR format. Which is essentially what Belarus is to Russia today. Notice their foreign policy mirrors Russia’s to a T. There’s no victory in an annexation where annexation is unnecessary.
In your mind and in many Western minds, that assessment makes perfect sense. In the mind of a person whose primary goal it is to re-establish the Russian Empire, the idea of Belarusian sovereignty, even in name only, is only a temporary condition on the way to re-entering into full union. Leaked plans suggest that is Russia’s desired end state whether it makes sense to you or not. Putin plans to take over Belarus by 2030: leaked document
As long as Modi is in power relations with the US will be shit. He’s a bad dude and I don’t see him turning to the US. However it’s lot like he’s going to China. Europe OTOH could give him much better weapons systems than Russia. There are signs a potent political opposition is building against him. Off the top of my head I’d guess there are 200 to 250M non Hindus that hate his guts, not to mention a large disaffected Hindu population who don’t buy in to his all Hindu vision of India nor his rampant corruption. Could be replaced by a moderate who can actual drive economic growth in India underperforming economy.
Is the $19.2B investment in production facilities enough or does Biden need to invoke the defense production act? Going to war? Good news! The United States is 13 years behind in ammunition production, NYT reports (msn.com) Raytheon, the company that helps make Javeline missile systems, said it would take five years at last year's production rates to replace the number of missiles sent to Ukraine in the last ten months. Currently, the US produces just over 14,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition every month — and Ukrainian forces have previously fired that many rounds in the span of 48 hours, The Washington Post reported last month. US officials in January proposed a production increase up to 90,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition each month to keep up with demand. ......................... Earlier this month, the Biden administration proposed a record-breaking $842 billion budget for the Department of Defense. In an effort to address the munitions shortage, the proposed budget includes $19.2 billion for modernizing facilities "that support readiness improvements," as well as increasing production of naval and anti-strike missiles, in an aim to support the country and its allies through this "decisive decade." While improvements to production facilities have been budgeted for going forward, the US is currently pushing suppliers to capacity to meet current wartime demands in Ukraine and keep pace with China's production. "When it comes to munitions, make no mistake," Kathleen Hicks, the deputy defense secretary, said during a briefing earlier this month on the 2024 budget proposal: "We are buying to the limits of the industrial base even as we are expanding those limits, and we're continuing to cut through red tape and accelerate timelines."
Oh, look. Two friendly Russian Su-27 pilots staging a meet and greet with a USAF B-52 bomber in international airspace. What fun loving guys, I hope they can swim.
Redouble efforts. Much like our chip investment double that amount. But make them chip in Raytheon has $50B in retained earnings
Honestly, the failure turn on the arms industry with a purpose a year ago is just one of many glaring strategic errors that further demonstrates the President is not being advised by serious people. Yet Jake Sullivan still has a job. Most of us would be out on our asses after being the single point of failure in three embarrassing strategic errors. And, yes, got it. I know, however badly advised he is, the President makes the decisions. It’s time for him to make another one with respect to his National Security Advisor.
You can’t put this on the defense contractor. The government gets exactly what it contracts for and not a thing additional. If you want to dramatically increase Javelin production, it could have been done and still can be. But it’s going to require invocation of the DPA, a lot of money, and fewer excuses.
Yep, Putin will brag to his buddies about how he annexed a country who has been totally subservient to him for the past 22+ years.
Either way, what does it really matter in the grand scheme? Putin already moves his tanks and troops freely across Belarus at his pleasure.
I’m not but they need to make investments themselves as well TSC in addition to what the govt is investing s has plans for 50B (could be off ) in chip plants in the US over the next few years. Intel in the 10’s of billions Samsung and Micron similar. More investments less buybacks for a bit.
A young man might be thrilled to get to third base. Then he might be satisfied for a while. But then, gosh, he just wants it all. I can’t explain it any clearer than that.
Who are his buddies? We need his sycophants not buddies to tell him this was his goal the whole time.
