Russia out of modern tanks is now sending 40’s and 50’s era refurbish tanks.. LOL Russia’s Weapons Game in Ukraine Hits a Dismal New Low
In before this is spun in terms of holding back their best men and equipment for the real offensive begins.....
I’m wondering how much you think these scenarios through. If the war takes a turn so disastrously for Russia that the only way to delay complete loss of Crimea is the use of nuclear weapons, you think Putin’s concern is whether the Russian people will think he’s an idiot? Let’s understand here, however unlikely it might seem today, what would have already unfolded to get to that point. His army in the field, despite its enormous manpower and resource advantages, would have either mutinied or suffered a defeat so catastrophic that the only viable military move would be general retreat in the direction of Russia. In the lead up to such a scenario, what do you think the domestic pressure would be like in Russia? My guess is if it ever comes to that, he will be far more concerned about the survival of his regime (and person). Further, if his hold on the military really grows that precarious, the likelihood of finding generals willing to carry out doomsday orders plummets. Also, Putin has three nuclear-armed allies, two of whom matter, neither of which are likely to tolerate his first-strike use of nuclear weapons, one of which has probably already personally warned Putin their “friendship without limits” does not include dragging China into a nuclear war. If you want a more realistic scenario that worries me more, then we know Russia is not above the “false flag” even when it’s painfully obvious to most of the world. Russia does not have all of the time in the world to get its army moving and show off something it can sell to an increasingly restless population as a victory. If Russia can achieve a quick breakthrough with tactical nuclear weapons, then that might be an option worth exploring. Of course, to do that Ukraine has to hit them first with a nuclear weapon it got “somehow.” As long as China is willing to act like they buy it, and they can be reasonably assured that NATO won’t intervene (I would not bet that way, but whatever), then it’s a desperate last toss of the die for victory. Sure, Russia won’t have answers for questions like “Why did Ukraine waste the ‘only nuke in its arsenal’ on a Russian target that didn’t hurt them very much” and “How is it Russia was so prepared to hit back instantly as if they knew this Ukrainian surprise attack was coming?” and “Why does forensic analysis of the radiation from the Ukrainian nuke seem to indicate that the fuel came from a Russian reactor?” But those are just details. Victory first. Then the messaging. Now if you put that second scenario forward as a concern why we just can’t let the war go on forever, then I understand. But it still doesn’t mean I think we should just let Russia have whatever it wants to get the war concluded.
And it may have come from China. I have no problem believing that China has started to provide lethal aid. We probably won’t know the truth for some time.
I’m wondering how much you think these scenarios through as well, because you started out by saying Putin is not dumb enough to use nukes in Ukraine, then stated Putin would already be too weak at home to play the nuke card if his soldiers have been pushed back to the border……..and then you go into a very viable (and consistent with history) method Putin may end up using nukes?? Is he going to use nukes or not?? No where did I rule out that he would cloak it with a false flag or use some grossly distorted reasoning to the public for taking the measure. I don’t think public opinion inside Russia will change much depending on whether Ukrainian troops are 10 km from the Russian border or 200 km from the border. It’s the same sell then as it is now. I believe Putin will wait until it’s absolutely necessary to use the nukes (for reasons you’ve already alluded to) and that would be Crimea. Whether right or wrong, the Russians view Crimea as sovereign territory. Not to mention it’s a very valuable piece as a port, vacation destination, fully intact structurally and for military purposes. Putin losing Crimea would be a much bigger blow to Putin’s stature inside Russia than Ukrainian troops retaking Donetsk and Lugansk. I don’t think Putin is going to worry about the timing of using some sort of false flag. I do think he will wait until he’s about to lose something that will truly cost him his regime and Crimea would fit that bill. Most of Donetsk and Lugansk is rubble.
We can say it came from NK so we can feel better about things. What harm is there in a little white lie, if it makes us feel better?
Meanwhile in Russia a new candidate for the front line. He’ll shock them to death. LOL Outed Serial Killer Assures Neighbors He Isn’t Planning New Murders
Russian countenance darkening ... Even so, I’m receiving ever more information that the mood on the frontline is changing. This careful approach may not last. If the Russians didn’t want to kill their Ukrainian brothers at the beginning and didn’t want to target bigger accumulations of troops, their attitude has changed. The local commanders on the ground seem to have received clearance to target large Ukrainian troop concentrations on the frontline and in the rear. Bombers are providing such a deep-strike capability. Taking Artemovsk as an example, the Russians have started to target reserve concentrations in the rear. Chasov Yar is one example. Which only increases the Ukrainian casualty rate. War analysis
British tanker comments on the futility of Russia fielding tanks from the 1950's: they are rolling coffins that can be penetrated by modern rifles. Putin’s shattered army will never recover
U.S. Gen Milley says that failure to stop Russia in Ukraine would cause the U.S. defense budget to double. Not Stopping Russia in Ukraine Would Force 'Doubling' of US Defense Budget, Milley Says
Let's just take General Milley's comment at face value. I am not one to complain about military spending. Better safe than sorry, right? So he's telling us that if Russia were to annex Ukraine, we would have to DOUBLE our military budget. And I'm sure he could go into detail why he feels our budget would need to double. But the main point here being, if Milley truly believes this, then you have to know the US will pull no punches in Ukraine when it's all said and done, because we're not doubling our defense budget. That's not in the cards. So we're basically slow-rolling a ramp up to major war and hoping for a miracle in the meantime (a coup in Moscow or somebody gets to Putin). The die has been cast. We're just slow-rolling it so as to not rock the boat too much on the off chance that Putin will go nuclear or escalate this much further than it's already gone. A veritable tight rope, if there ever was one.
