War in Ukraine

Ukraine: “We will stage a counter-attack in Bakhmut very soon.”

Russia: “Okay, thanks.”

 

all signs point to Crimea. Explosions in the Sevastopol port directed at naval ships. watch closely and you can see a drone coming in from right to left at about 15 seconds in and then make a hard 90 degree turn right into the ship before the large explosion. still trying to understand what the rest of the flak in the air is in this video. flares to distract air defense systems or air defense systems shooting and missing or ???

New Video Shows Likely Ukraine Drone Attack on Russian Navy (msn.com)

 

Xi met with Putin and dismissed him as others have done. I think my favorite was Erdogan making him stand and wait for 5 minutes in front of the crowd. what did I miss? chinese ammo was found on the battlefield? yes, I have no doubt that there is lots of chinese ammo on the market for Wagner to purchase. do I believe that there are large volumes of munitions authorized to be sold to Russia? Not at all, Xi isn't that stupid.

 

I think you just post this kind of stuff over and over to convince yourself it’s true.

 

Sevastopol being attacked is not a good sign. Remember, Russia has been allowed to dock its fleet at Sevastopol since the dissolution of the USSR. Crimea is 90% ethnic Russian. Both sides will rapidly escalate if Crimea continues to be attacked.

 

That’s a darkly humorous assessment. Yes, there were all kinds of understandings between Ukraine and Russia between 1991 and when Russia decided to take Ukrainian lands by right of conquest. Surprisingly, now that Russia has openly invaded Ukraine, put its lands to the torch, bombed its cities, murdered and kidnapped its citizens, and committed all other forms of barbarity, Ukraine has decided that maybe Russian warships should no longer have safe harbor in a Ukrainian port seized by force. Yes, that “escalation” by Ukraine causes the whole world to gasp.

 

I’m not debating to whom the land rightly belongs. I’m simply pointing out that an all out assault on Crimea will not end well. I could see Putin using nukes if he felt Crimea was under significant threat of takeover by force. And then, of course, it’s going to escalate much further on both sides.

 

Disagree - I find G8tr's info. to be far more factual than your own.

 

Denys Davydov's podcast (My favorite on the subject) from yesterday showed a brief clip of some type of Ukranian mini-sub, unmanned drone, type device he thinks caused that explosion. He even tried to identify the Russian vessel.

Not sure of the accuracy but quite interesting. Denys is from that city.

 

Human Verification

Haven’t had time to post in a while. Russian offensive seems completely stalled. The only question now is can Ukraine counter to any real effect.

 

An all-out assault (which would mean an attempt to seize with land forces) on Crimea is not remotely in the cards at present. If and when Russian turmoil in its home front leads to a 1917-level collapse of the armed forces and Ukraine gains the freedom of maneuver to conduct the reconquest of Crimea, then what Putin (assuming he would still be in power under such a scenario) might or might not do to stave off the Ukrainian armed forces will be a relevant discussion. Presently, at most, Ukraine’s deep attacks on Russian assets in Ukrainian territory are in kind (though not in proportion or scope) to Russian deep attacks on Kyiv et al.

As far as Putin using a nuke, (sighs) I’m out of fingers and toes for the amount of times we have heard that threat. Instead of us hysterically asking ourselves “Oh, my God, what if Putin uses a nuke?!” Putin needs to be asking himself (and I’m sure he is) “What is NATO going to do if I use a nuke?” And if he has not made that strategic calculation, then he isn’t nearly the Machiavellian genius he thinks.

 

Crimea is Ukrainian territory. the only dispute about that is in Putin's, and apparently yours, heads. It is a settled international border that was violated by force by Russia. Just because Putin enforced ethnic cleansing when he took it by force doesn't make it Russian. And be prepared because, by all appearances, it is going to be invaded. Even the people in Crimea know it, it is why they have been fleeing in droves, as they should if they want to live under Russian authority.

 

thanks but that is a low bar to be cleared..seems to be a DD light, not sure if there is anything to be gained by continued engagement at this point other than giving the air to the misinformation

 

look at the video at 15 second mark and you can see the drone come across and turn hard right directly into the ship at 16 seconds +/-. that looks pretty clearly to be a drone of some sort, fast moving too.

 

Well, yeah, I already knew an all-out Ukrainian assault on Crimea wasn’t going to happen anytime soon, but the implications of bombing the Sevastopol base are pretty clear. Crimea is part of NATO’s end game. I don’t think you’re going to see the upheaval in the streets of Moscow that you’re hoping for. I give that a less than 5 percent chance of ever materializing. But Ukraine, vis-a-vis NATO, has its sights on Crimea and I think they’ll plow ahead, regardless of any turmoil or lack thereof inside Moscow. Not to mention, it’s been stated as much, many times, as the end game by Zelenskyy.

Regarding nukes, I was referring to tactical nuclear weapons and I 100% do believe if this progresses to an all-out assault on Crimea, via NATO supplied weaponry no less, Putin has no other way to sell that at home other than “NATO has crossed our border and we gotta up the ante a whole lot.” I was not referring to long-range nuclear missiles being fired at NATO countries. Rather, tactical short-range nukes being used on Ukraine. Very much a possibility with where this is heading and I think the bombing of Sevastopol tells you this is heading that way…eventually. Hope I’m wrong.

 

I know exactly what kind of nuclear weapon you were referencing and who Putin (if in power) would be targeting with it. And my answer stands: if Putin is not concerned about what NATO would do in the event that Russia used a nuclear weapon against Ukrainian forces in Ukraine, then Putin is an idiot. And I don’t think Putin is an idiot.

 

Worse yet, Putin doesn’t want to be seen as an idiot by his own people, which is exactly how they would view him if Russia was forced to hand Crimea back to the Ukrainians. So at that point, Putin has very little to lose by using tactical nukes in Ukraine. 100% believe he would call NATO’s bluff in that scenario.

 

This might have something to do with it…

Witnesses Unravel the Chinese Mass Murder Mystery That Could Ruin Putin

 

interesting. Xi couldn't have been happy that Wagner guys were slaughtering chinese gold miners in Africa. no telling how much wealth Wagner and Putin have stolen from Africa at this point
from the article

The vigilantes then rushed into the gold mine where they allegedly found the security guards, local Central Africans, tied up—with dead bodies littered around them on the ground. “We counted nine dead bodies of Chinese men,” another vigilante, who was at the scene after the attack, told The Daily Beast. “Two other Chinese men, as well as a Central African soldier, had bullet wounds mostly on their hands and legs but were still alive when we saw them.”
........................
For years, French companies dominated the mining industry in CAR, a former French colony. But since Russian mercenaries—invited by the Central African government to help fight rebels seeking to seize power—became very active in the impoverished African nation about five years ago, Russian firms linked to Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin have made the mining business in the country all but theirs, chasing away both local and foreign miners that were active there before their arrival.

China’s recent attempt to make inroads into the lucrative sector may have been viewed as a threat to Russia’s mining business in the country, according to those who’ve worked closely with the Wagner Group. “The Russians don't want anyone else to gain control of any mining site [in CAR] except you are Russian,” said Ali, the ex-member of Wagner’s local wing, known as the ‘Black Russians.’ “It is worse if you are a foreigner. They’ll make sure you’re dead so you don’t find a way of coming back in future.”

Breaking point
Reports of Russian paramilitaries targeting foreign miners in CAR aren't new. Last June, a dispatch by The Guardian revealed that dozens of migrant miners were slaughtered, with some buried in mass graves, in at least three attacks by Wagner mercenaries last year. That was followed by a Middle East Eye report in July that some 100 gold miners from Sudan, Chad, and Niger were killed during a massacre by Wagner troops in CAR’s eastern Andaha region in what was reportedly a desperate Russian attempt to gain control over the flow of gold and diamonds that could help Moscow manage the blow of sanctions brought on by Putin’s unprovoked war in Ukraine.

 

very little to lose? seriously? smdh