War in Ukraine

Ehh.. we’ll see the economic upheaval in real time. They’re not going to revolt over the war by itself. Russians don’t count dead soldiers like we do.

 

The revolt will start as a coup by an oligarch in Putin’s circle. The civil war may happen if all the oligarchs don’t support fall in line behind the new czar.

 

Yeah but they’ve been doing that with elite force as well, an entire elite brigade was wiped out (not sure if I’ve got the size or terminology right) but a major segment no longer exists

 

In the pretend war Russia is losing and Putin is embattled.

 

Why would that happen? Putin has found a way to continue enriching his oligarch friends with Western sanctions in place. If it’s not broke, they’re not going to try to fix it. Have you seen the surge in oil exports going to India and China from the Urals?

 

LOL the oligarchs aren’t Putin’s friends. He’s snickered about uber-rich Russians taking their wealth out of Russia and having it stolen by the West.

 

Putin has already sidelined the Wagner group to cut the head of on snake. He will have to appease some on his other flank to maintain absolute grip on power. I think that mean consolidation in Crimea. We should finish the job to destroying his stupid bridge.

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world ...

Crimea is off the table. Kyiv needs to worry about how much of what used to be Ukraine it can retain ...

Ukrainian Official Says Kyiv Doesn't Have the Resources for a Counteroffensive - News From Antiwar.com

 

You don’t think a lot are thinking. I could be the top guy. Everyone would love me.

 

Sure, some thirst for power, but at the same time, Putin’s system made them all billionaires, which is richer than they ever thought they’d be. If they try a coup, they risk upsetting that whole system and they stand to lose a lot more than they would gain.

 

I don’t think logic is at play in any of the moves by Putin and his oligarchs. At least nothing we would recognize as logic.

 

China and India have recently agreed to the $60 cap. If they honor their intl commitment, that will derpen the wound. Add in Turkey now cutting exports to Russia in response to western pressure and the full impacts are yet to be felt.

 

Well, if China agreed to it….

 

I’m all for an accident taking place that destroys that bridge.

 

China: we’ll buy triple the amount of oil if you guys cap it at $60 per.

Russia: deal

(cue incessant laughter)

 

Enough of this crap. Hit them somewhere in Ukraine. Inflict pain greater than what they did. They’re feckless cowards and nowhere near a corner.

Russian fighter jet forces down US drone over Black Sea | CNN Politics

 

I do think a combat air patrol over international waters to protect our UAS would be appropriate. If the Russians want to play with aircraft that significantly outclass them, who are we to deny them the opportunity?

 

LOL it only took an F-22 two tries to shoot down a weather balloon. I’m sure Russia is shuddering.