War in Ukraine

Whatever initial hit the Russians took from economic sanctions has largely been mitigated and continues to be mitigated. I don’t doubt the Russians will continue to feel some economic pain from the sanctions, but it’s not going to be nearly enough to foment any sort of uprising. Especially, when you have countries like China and India, who have the means to buy up a lot of their exports. Russians have had to endure much worse conditions in decades past. Further, there is little evidence of an organized uprising building in Russia.

 

Navalny won an Oscar. Does that count for an uprising ?

 

perhaps this is Russia's strategy. Kill all the experienced ukranian fighters with the prisoners. not good.

Ukrainian Battalion Loses All 500 Members in Fighting With Russia (businessinsider.com)

"The most valuable thing in war is combat experience," he said, describing the difference between a soldier with six months of experience and one who was freshly trained as "heaven and earth."

"And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience," he told the Post. "Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded."

In his own battalion, Kupol said there had been a complete turnover in personnel since the invasion. Off the 500 men he commanded last year, 400 have been wounded and another 100 killed, according to the Post. Their replacements are not ready for war, he added.

"They just drop everything and run. That's it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn't shoot. I ask him why, and he says, 'I'm afraid of the sound of the shot.' And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade," he told the Post. "We need NATO instructors in all our training centers, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task."

 

This is probably because of the level of control these criminals have over their countries, rather than any type of misery index.

North Koreans must be some of the most miserable people on earth, except they are brainwashed not to be, and even the slight dissent results in death. The only difference is at least some parts of Russia became accustomed to some degree of freedom, so their choice was revolt or flee. It seems most of those with the wherewithal chose the latter. Only the ignorant would willingly let themselves be cannon fodder. Unfortunately when you keep your population ignorant or subject to propaganda, there is plenty of cannon fodder and less willing to stand up to the regime. But at some point Russia can’t keep doing what they are doing. They may be able to win a war of attrition of men. They cannot win a war of attrition in military equipment and GDP spend. Eventually they will be losing men 10:1 instead of 5:1. Even with Chinese and Iranian help, that still isn’t enough unless the Chinese go “all-in”. If this were to happen, it would no longer be about rationality or economic decisions, but quite literally a battle of freedom vs. communism/slavery.

 

I see two things on this thread. And lots of it ...

(1) projection

(2) wishful thinking

 

Human Verification

Similar to the concern from Ukraine regarding a counter attack back in December and January, now the Russian's are starting to be worried about a counter attack. Perhaps this has been Ukraine's plan - to hold the majority of the russian army in one place and then to counter at points along the line where they sense weakness.

Will be interesting to see how this develops. Division is growing on both sides.

 

I would assume both sides are going through experienced soldiers at an alarming rate. It’s definitely Russia’s strategy to just use some less experienced soldiers as cannon fodder.

There were media reports awhile back them sending advancing waves of men who’d be shot if they retreated, and their goal was essentially to get mowed down and blown up. Sacrifice for mother Russia at gunpoint. A helluva way to fight a war! But in so doing, they’d expose the Ukranian positions and somewhat preserve their more experienced/equipped soldiers.

Still, if it comes down to green soldier vs. green soldier, if Ukraine has better gear they still have an edge to defend their turf. The thing that would lose for Ukraine is if they start losing the long range artillery and tanks, if NATO or the U.S. blink in their resolve, or if somehow they could no longer even get trained soldiers to wield them

 

Fact Checked: partially true ...

The US is going through experienced Ukrainian troops at an alarming rate.

 

more explosions in and around Mariupol. it would seem that the counters would follow the shaping of the field with the long range weaponry.

10 full tank crews including operators and maintenance just completed leopard tank training in Spain. new tanks / apc's, mobile bridge platforms and other weapons systems should be operational late April/May if I'm reading the tea leaves properly.

 

Xi to come to Moscow as early as next week, followed by a WhatsApp chat with Zelensky.

Will Xi reproduce his Middle East magic ?

If he does Victoria Nuland will have a stroke and a heart attack and a UTI.

 

Same. Problem is late April is 40 days. At 100-200 casualties a day that’s 4k-8k of ukraines ground forces in a monthish time. Can they sustain that longer than Russia can sustain losing 500-1000 per day? Idk.

 

Russian losses of 500-1,000 a day fine example of (1) projection and (2) wishful thinking.

Prigozhin says Wagner losing about 20 a day and that sounds about right, given its immense firepower advantages.

 

There won’t be an uprising until there is. By that I mean whatever happens will happen unexpectedly and quick. The question is will everyone accept it or are we looking at a civil war?

 

Caught up with my Belarusian partner last week. He had a few interesting takes, but to this point - he highlighted how for 20 years Russians have been told to not worry about politics or anything. Just go live your life. The state's gotchu. Now conscription? None of this is setting easy on the people and more attempts to raise troops may not go as "well" as previous as attempts.

During the previous attempts, it was largely understood that you could avoid duty. No one would chase you down. (explains how so many were able to leave) But the gigs up now. People understand at some level that things aren't going well for the boys at the front. Any future raises may prove to be thornier.

 

Oh nooos!

Russia will use a Poseidon missile to wipe out Britain if NATO troops put boots on ground in Ukraine | Daily Mail Online

 

Russian fighter jet CRASHES into US Reaper drone over the Black Sea | Daily Mail Online

 

I need an eyeroll emoji for every empty threat Russia makes toward the West.

 

Most Americans would agree that in this situation it is a very good start.

 

Yep. I’ll risk it. If anyone has a peaceful way to make Russia return to its borders, then I’m all ears. I love peace. I love free trade. I would much rather have both with Russia. Until someone has that better idea, more Russians need to die.

 

No offense, but I stopped reading here. Can’t compare the situation in North Korea to Russia. Bottom line is Russia has a history of revolts tied to economic hard times. It’s not North Korea.