War in Ukraine

Russia has to be down to its last hundreds and hundreds of missiles and thousands and thousands of tanks by now.

 

That claim is born of hope, not dispassionate analysis. Russia is not likely to “run out” of either fighting Ukraine alone. The only realistic resource they might run out of before winning is national will. Attrition is an indirect approach to targeting the Russian will to continue this war. In and of itself it probably will not result in victory.

 

Friendly reminder ...

Zelensky, not Putin, is increasingly threatened by the prospect of a palace coup

 

Ladies Night in Russia

Russia Turns to Women's Prisons for Fresh Recruits – Reports - The Moscow Times

 

Putin Youth

Masked Wagner mercenaries are giving career talks at Russian high schools, UK intel says

 

If Russia is that desperate, perhaps russophile sympathizers in the west can put their money where their mouth is and sign up for Vlad.

 

My comment was a generalization that they have more people than adequate hardware like tanks and such.

 

I’ll take it a step further, not to step on your toes. But any “hope” of bending the Russian people’s will was never tied to troop casualties in Ukraine. Men dying in war is part of Russian culture. They’re used to it. Especially, when they’re using prisoners to wage their battles. Russians aren’t mourning their prisoner sons who died as “martyrs” in Ukraine.

The real opportunity to hit the Russian public will was via economic sanctions and the West has largely swung and missed at that opportunity. Granted, countries like China and India make it difficult for us to form a backstop, but if your hope is in the Russian people, you want them to feel the economic pain. The West has largely failed to do this and I’m not sure we could have done much more. But we’re not winning over any hearts or minds inside of Russia by offing their soldiers in Ukraine. Russians won’t move on the Kremlin until you can demonstrate to them their ruble is valueless. The needle has barely budged. Hence, the deafening silence from the Russian public. The only time you see regime change in Russia is with an economic crisis.

 

If they start a GoFundMe for plane tickets, I'm in.

 

Our lift shoes wearing governor has weighed in stating that supporting Ukraine in this war is not in our national interest.

Another Putinite running for president. Awesome.

 

Sorry to burst your bubble, y’all. Sometimes killing of tens of thousands of people isn’t the end all. Go figure.

 

Dec-2022
Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.
What are the goals of Western sanctions on Russia, then? These have never been stated explicitly, but a closer look at sanctions packages implemented by the United States, the European Union, and their allies indicates that they have three objectives. First, Western countries are trying to send a strong signal of resolve and unity to the Kremlin. Second, sanctioning states aim to degrade Russia’s ability to wage war. Third, Western democracies are betting that sanctions will slowly asphyxiate the Russian economy and in particular the country’s energy sector. When judged on the basis of these criteria, sanctions are clearly working.
What are the goals of Western sanctions on Russia, then? These have never been stated explicitly, but a closer look at sanctions packages implemented by the United States, the European Union, and their allies indicates that they have three objectives. First, Western countries are trying to send a strong signal of resolve and unity to the Kremlin. Second, sanctioning states aim to degrade Russia’s ability to wage war. Third, Western democracies are betting that sanctions will slowly asphyxiate the Russian economy and in particular the country’s energy sector. When judged on the basis of these criteria, sanctions are clearly working.

 

The Russian economy contracted a whopping 2.1% in 2022. So while one can’t inaccurately state sanctions are not working to some degree, a 2.1% contraction is a walk in the park for Russians who have thrived under much worse conditions. Not to mention Russia is continually reorganizing their exports and are largely avoiding any tangible effects from the sanctions. And again, a 2.1% contraction in GDP isn’t going to move the needle as it relates to rallying the Russian people to overthrow Putin.

Frankly, for all their failures on the battlefield, Russia and Putin have played the economic angle like a fiddle, which insinuates forethought and strategic planning. Their true exposure was always on the economic front. Not the war front.

 

Russia has had a low (non replacement) birthdate for decades. The losses in Ukraine and those that have emigrated because of the war is going to cause issues for the next leadership of Russia. China also has this issue but not to the same extent. We because of our immigration mostly do not.

 

This ought to sting. Even the Kyiv Independent is going with a radically lower 16,000 Russian losses ...

Media: Public data suggests over 16,000 Russian soldiers have been killed during first year of all-out war

 

Even WaPo catching on to how bad it’s going for Ukraine ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

 

It’s also worth noting Ukraine is not immune to those challenges as well.

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1155943055/ukraine-low-birth-rate-russia-war

 

Not that Russia’s numbers are to be trusted in the first place, but even they report a surging budget deficit with something like a 33% decline in revenues (aka govt receipts from civilian personal and business income). They had retail sales in the -10% range. Somewhere between those figures is probably more indicative of the pain civilians are feeling in the country, those who didn’t manage to flee into Europe anyway. A -2.2% GDP read, if even accurate, includes their increased military spend and the usual theft off the top from Russian oligarchs.

 

Russia will actually be gaining population from this conflict.

 

Russia faring better than the UK economically.

Ironic because no government has been more bellicose, vs Russia, than UK.