By war of attrition we mean Russia attriting the West’s weaponry which chiefly includes Ukrainian troops.
Sure, and so where is this mass uprising of middle class Russians who are less susceptible to propaganda? Tbh, I've been disappointed there hasn't been more social unrest inside Russia than there has, which leads me to doubt some of the tallies we see coming out of Ukraine. I tend to agree that if say, 200,000 Russian soldiers have died fighting in Ukraine, the Russian public would have overthrown the Kremlin by now.
Also keep in mind that during World War II Germany had invaded Russia, imposing a siege of Leningrad that resulted in the deaths of over 650,000 Russians, were on the outskirts of Moscow and nearly captured Stalingrad. The Soviet Union did make huge sacrifices considering that the alternative would have been subjugation by Hitler's Germany. In other words the German invaders represented an existential threat to Russia. Last time I checked hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians had not invaded Russia. There is absolutely no way that the Russian population will tolerate the sacrifices that Putin may be willing to make.
How much does Putin know about managing the military? He was never in the military. He's been in intelligence services essentially his whole life. He got an undergrad degree in law at age 23, and immediately joined the KGB. Shortly before he became president, he got a Ph.D. in economics based on his theories of managing mineral markets. So he should understand economics in theory (of course, it is a flawed version of economics based on communist doctrine). He has never worked in private enterprise, he was not a life-long politician, and he has no military experience. He has to rely on his generals for how the army is developing. They say that no one can lie to Putin (because he can detect a lie so easily with his KGB background), but I guarantee you that his generals figured it out. The generals knew how to run a dog and pony show whenever Putin showed up for inspection. And they could easily point to Russia's successes in places like Syria to show that the army is a world-class fighting force, even if it wasn't. Putin knew there was some corruption in the army, but some minimal level was to be expected--after all, corruption made Putin the wealthiest man in Russia. If Putin rooted out all of the corrupt people in Russia, there wouldn't be anyone left to run the country. Vladimir Putin - Wikipedia
This is simply not true. You are not posting factual information. ‘Something Was Badly Wrong’: When Washington Realized Russia Was Actually Invading Ukraine
There were protests after the initial invasion. Most of those people went to prison in Siberia. Then there was a shortage of manpower for the army, so they started conscription. Protesters at that time protested with their feet, leaving Russia. Now there are two possibilities: prison in Siberia, or conscription to the front lines. And most of the people willing to protest are long gone. Everyone else has gotten the message. That also explains the 75% support for the war that some mentally-challenged people may put forward as evidence that the Russian people fully support the war.
It's more complicated than that. Yes, I'm well aware of the history of WW2. I am well aware the Soviets lost 11+ million soldiers helping to defeat the Nazis. They also took out 5.5 million German soldiers on their way to Berlin and they liberated Ukraine from Nazi occupation. By comparison, the Allied forces on the western front only killed 500k German soldiers. So you could understand why Russia might have a vested interest in keeping Ukraine under its wing. They were the same country for the better part of the last century and Russians shed lots of blood to liberate it from Nazi occupation. They do not simply want to hand it over to the West and be surrounded by NATO countries. I'm not saying it's pure. I'm not saying it's right. But I don't think it's a simple as a Putin land grab. He has always sought to keep Kyiv under Kremlin influence and whether for right or wrong, they do see Ukraine in NATO hands as a threat to their security and yes, stature on the world stage.
A little ironic that Russia would have to use conscription to get people to join the army with that kind of support for the war, don't you think? Unless the 75% is mostly little old ladies and children. Or unless the Russian people feel that it is a loaded question, and their response could determine whether they live or die.
I don't find it useful to cast doubt on polling numbers inside of Russia if Russians aren't going to do anything about it. Whether the war truly has 0% support or 100% support, if the Russian people aren't going to do anything about it, it becomes a moot point, does it not?
While I think that a majority of Russians still support the war that support is far lower than it was a year ago when the 80% approval at the time may have been accurate. Obviously just a wild guess the percentage is probably just a little above 50%. As you indicated it's virtually impossible to take even a remotely accurate poll in Russia today and let's not forget the number of Russians especially draft age men who are voting with their feet and that may be a more accurate reflection of support (or lack thereof) for Vlad's "special military operation" than any "poll". ‘We realized that there’s no way we can return’: Russia’s best and brightest are leaving the country in record numbers. 6 young Russians explain why they left Opposition to Ukraine war weakens as young Russians flee conscription Russians abandon wartime Russia in historic exodus
You do know that Ukrainians initially welcomed the Nazi army when they were invaded, don't you? They were thrilled that they were being set free from their abusive Soviet overlords. One of the biggest mistakes that Hitler made was not treating the Ukrainian people well on the way to Moscow. So, no, they were not "the same country" most of the last century: one country was the overlord, and the other was subjugated. Russia refused (and still refuses) to recognize that the era of Empire-building was long gone. Russia did not shed any blood to free Ukraine--that is just propaganda. They were determined to be the first to Berlin (and they were). They were after the war prizes. They could claim every country that they drove through on the way to Berlin as a war prize. They were able to negotiate for one fourth of Germany, including most of Berlin, the largest city. Then they would set up governments in all these countries, with fealty to the USSR as the prime directive. There was no intention to set these countries free, as the U.S. did with France, Belgium, the Netherlands, etc. They could loot and pillage these countries as if they were in their own back yard. In one fell swoop, they re-created the Russian Empire, bigger and wealthier than it ever was before. Then they mismanaged it for the next 45 years until their entire economic system collapsed. BTW, there is a reason that Germany put so many soldiers in the way of the USSR versus the west. They were much more terrified of being taken over by the uncivilized Russians than the U.S. and England.
Ahhhh... so the moral is Ukraine wanted to be part of the Third Reich and that would have been somehow better than what ended up happening. Alrighty then. I'm not making the Soviets into saints. Simply explaining why a guy like Vlad Putin would see Ukraine falling into the wrong hands as an existential threat.
The U.S. government may have seen it coming months in advance, but they did not go public with it until shortly before it happened. And most of Europe still did not believe that the war was imminent until the war actually started.
Obviously the govt saw the troop buildups well in advance, which is why Biden and other world leaders were warning them not to do it. At some point the govt obviously realized it was happening, that it was too much to be “drills” or just bluster. That is totally different from the reality of the invasion actually starting. There was definitely a lot of speculation that it was just “bluster”, just have to go back to the beginning of the thread to see some takes from some “perpetually incorrect” posters getting their Tucker takes. Whatever happened to that sweetchinmusic guy?
Ukraine did not and never would have represented a threat to the existence of Russia. Maybe Putin saw an independent Ukraine as a threat to implementing his goal of reconstituting the Soviet/Russian empire.
A nice article on the use of artificial intelligence to tell how Russians really feel about the Ukraine War. AI Can Tell Us How Russians Feel About the War. Putin Won’t Like the Results. First, a quick statement of the obvious for those of limited intellect that keep posting Russian polls (Trolls with Polls): And now, for the results: Russia may be losing control of its outer regions. After they lose Ukraine, they may find that other republics want to separate themselves from the cruel master.
