I don't think we are disagreeing about anything. I'm just giving a reason why the Kremlin might not try to compel him to jump in even though they could probably use the help. I think you agree. That doesn't mean they won't and it doesn't mean they would care about the strategic loss of Belarus if that was the route to victory. I was envisioning with the scenario were Belarus jumps in, Luka is quickly deposed, they jump back out without much effect, and the cause is heard in the process. But it's a bunch of speculation all around.
This is an excellent piece which reads like you were consulting with the author, who simply toned down the language for mass publication. Tell me what you think. For everyone I think it's a good read
I remember seeing her sing that on the news when the war was still fresh (late February or early March) last year. I’m glad I was alone at the time. The overwhelming shame at how little we were doing to come to Ukraine’s aid was difficult to bear. I’m less emotional about it today, but the shame persists in all honesty.
There are two differences between then and now: 1) This is not a war for Russia's survival. Ukraine has not threatened to invade Russia, much less brought troops to Moscow's gates. 2) Russia is no longer a nation of peasant farmers. Not only have they industrialized, but they have modernized. They have the latest in computer technology, functioning cars and modern appliances. This war doesn't mean anything to the average Russian except the chance to get killed if they get conscripted into it. Russia's other problem is that war has gotten more sophisticated and complicated since the 1940's, so it takes longer to get soldiers properly trained. Russia is not investing the time and effort to get their conscripts trained. Many never fire a weapon during their training--they dig a ditch. Add in the outdated weapons that the conscripts are given, and I can't see how these additional bodies are going to help the Russian cause at all, except maybe to draw the Ukrainian fire so real Russian troops can shoot back.
All of that is true. However, are you still not impressed or at least surprised with the numbers Russia has put into the field and the number of casualties it has sustained without having collapsed into revolution? If you had told me a year ago that Russia would have between 60 and 80 thousand dead with many more serious injuries and they would keep escalating, I would have said that I doubted it.
I don't think Putin tolerates people who don't agree with everything he says. In that regard, he controls everyone in government that might be able to get close to him and start a coup (or even start a conversation about whether they should be in this war or not). As for the people on the street, what can they do? Protest? Putin might have them gunned down. The only protest that is safe is leaving the country.
Putin is a murderous thug who has no problem ordering his enemies deaths. And not just in Russia, he orders hits outside the country. It's a miracle Navalney is still alive.
Maybe since Turkey is a NATO member, but they are also good buds with Russia. Hard to see this incident escalating the war.
There’s probably nothing “miraculous” about it. Navalney is likely still alive only because having him alive serves some sort of purpose that we can’t discern.
The Turks shot down a couple of Russian planes in Syria long ago. It's not that friendly. They also threatened Russia after Russia took over Crimea, saying that they would retaliate by shutting off Transit through the Dardanelles if any of the Tatars in Crimea were persecuted
I mean, it's Turkey and Russia. Not exactly buddies over the last 400 years or so. They just happen to find themselves in the same authoritarian bed. Strage bedfellows indeed.
Perhaps people are overestimating the willingness of the average russian to go fight against Ukraine. Between all those that left and all the dead and wounded coming home, I question their ability to keep throwing bodies at it. First time they tried to raise 500k and ended up with much less based on what I've read and couldn't equip or train them
Obviously a guess maybe Putin feels that Navalney would represent more of a danger to his regime as a dead martyr than as a living but very ill prisoner. Using an analogy Mahsa Amini the young Iranian woman murdered by the morality police has been a much more of a threat to the regime as a martyr around which Iranians are rallying than she would have had she survived their beating.
On the other hand they've sided with Russia, blocking NATO admittance for Finland and Sweden. They've also ignored the sanctions imposed by NATO, actually increasing trade and energy imports with Russia, which certainly helps the Russian economy. Erdogan is trying to walk the fence. One errant missile is not very likely to change that.
That’s my guess, too. Also, as long as he’s alive, his movement can’t really replace him as leader. That was partially the reason the South Africans did not seek the death penalty for Mandela, though under the law at the time they could have for inciting insurrection. Many other countries would have under the same circumstances. Their thinking was that the ANC now will just have a leader in prison with extremely limited contact.
Maybe now that he’s in prison but they previously tried to assassinate him no less than two times that we know about.
