I didn’t say he was great. I said Mertz has been AR passing for 3 years with zero running. So take away the spy and the edge contain and now our RBs have to beat another man. Take away all the rushing yards AR had. Mertz has to make that up. So he has to go from AR passing to something much better than AR passing tk equal ARs output Rushing matters
Moving the sticks and not directly causing punts wins games. AR was I think 33% on passes from1-9 yards. That’s pathetic and the basis for moving the ball.
Nice summary, and I think you're right about the FSU game. Our running game should be really good with another running back to pound from Tulane at 225 lbs..
Ok? Mertz had a 57% completion percent AR 54%. AR better TD/INT and YPA. But they were darn close to equal passing Mertz had negative 40 Rushing. AR had 650 and 9 TDs, and hundreds more can be attributed due to Ds having to spy and maintain the edge. Oh and almost 500 more yards passing. So Mertz needs to pass for 1500 more yards + 10 more TDs while maintaining his INTs to equal ARs output. That is just factual and the data It’s doable as it’s not an elite year. Just a good one. AR was 30th in QBR. Good not great. Mertz has never been good. He had more INTs than TDs in 2021 so I’m not just cherry picking 2022 He hasn’t remotely come close to ARs output in any of his 3 years. Of course he can. 30ish QBs will match what AR did last year. But Mertz will have to take a huge leap to be among them I hope he does but there just is no evidence that he will.
I get your point that AR as a running threat opened things up, but if it was that big of a factor (his running recreated a KT offense), then we would have seen scoring last year like 2020, which we did not. If we can get average to good QB play (I hate the phrase "game manager" because I think it is such a misstatement) with more dynamism from the receivers, and a modest year two improvement in the run game, I could see where we improve on the points per game average of 29.54 of last year.
He doesn’t need to compare stats. Just move the chains. Qbs win games all the time with 150 yards and no tds. I watched the games and AR could not run a consistent offense. Basic short gimme passes that any journeyman could make were 33% for AR. We didn’t even attempt running a two minute offense all year. Do you think that was because none of the 50 coaches on staff have heard of it before. Sure he could run and had a canon but he couldn’t do the simplest things. AR wasn’t a threat in the short area of the field where the best qbs make their living. A short passing game opens up everything. We were one dimensional because of his weakness in the short game.
Or even have similar points but just a different offense. Maybe two backs over a 1000 yards and a qb that “manages” or just does the little things right. A decent short to mid passing game and move the sticks, maybe even a two minute offense instead of kneeling. Take that five yard slant that the defense is giving you all day. 2nd and five is always nice.
Many of us remember the negativity started last year in the first half of the Utah game. I'm not exaggerating. Like I wrote elsewhere, Mertz had a different OCs and QB coaches every year. Now the OC/QB coach/HC will be working closely with him. All he needs to be is consistent or Miller if he takes the job in the Spring. Like @Wanne15 said, hit the short to medium throws consistently and move the chains. Florida has faster and better athletes surrounding either and that will also make a difference. Speaking of which, Florida now has track stars at WR to compliment Pearsall. I believe the offense will be as good or better than last year. I think the defense will be as good or better too. By the way, my 11-1 prediction was joking to get the thread started. I officially think 8-4 is the number. Maybe 9-3 if they stay mostly injury-free but also maybe 7-5. PS -- We may have to revisit all this after the Spring Transfer Portal period.
I’d love 8-9 wins. I was mostly worried about our oline and Waite’s injury doesn’t help but we could have decent blocking. Losing AR’s run threat hurts but the short passes can serve to loosen up the defense for the running game. We won’t have a runner at qb so the short passing game will be abs necessary.
I agree. There has been something of a disconnect between Mertz coming from high school and his college production. He was much higher rated than what he has shown. I'm hanging my hat on it being constant turnover in coaching and offensive scheme . . . learning a new one every year is tough. We also need to save a tiny spot for the possibility that a grad transfer comes in after the spring . . . although I would be happy to support either Mertz or Miller -- whoever earns the job in spring practices. Edit: I went back and found Mertz's 247 profile from when he was in HS. He had offers from Alabama, Clemson, the LegHumpers, Arizona State and Wisconsin among MANY others. The full list is below.
I would be quite pleased with 8-4, especially if that includes beating FSU. Of course I think we should have been 8-4 last year, hence major disappointment.
I say this before games and I’ll say it before the season: “It’s hard to predict turnovers and injuries to key players in advance.” It would be nice to find a 24 year old quarterback with a couple of years eligibility.
A lot depends on what they get out of the QB position this season. Still don’t believe the defense is going to be all that improved, unfortunately. Billy is going to take some lumps the first two years here. His squad must be ready for the first game of the 2024 season though, that’s a can’t lose game, under no circumstances, imho.
With the right QB? That's a 10-2 or 9-3 schedule... Don't know if the right QB is on our team as of yet.
Of those teams only FSU and LSU (and possibly USC but not convinced) will be better this coming year. Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and UGA take steps back. Utah has some attrition this year too.
