Not sure how the Republican will spin this but it’s really good news. Basically inflation is slowing and economy is still moving along. US Economy Expands at a Faster-Than-Expected 2.9% Pace The US economy expanded at a healthy pace in the fourth quarter, though an extended salvo of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes is seen jeopardizing growth prospects this year. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annualized rate in final three months of 2022 after a 3.2% gain in the third quarter, the Commerce Department’s initial estimate showed Thursday. Personal consumption (GDPCTOT%), the biggest part of the economy, climbed at a less-than-forecast 2.1% pace.
Their response will be to try and quickly correct this. Debt ceiling brinskmanship ought to do the trick.
Things are slowing, but are they slowing enough for JPow? Expectations are 50 points, but I feel like many are pinning hopes on 25. At this point I think 50 will be viewed as bad news. If he hammers 75, we may get a full rug pull / bandaid rip. But that won't happen. I hope
For comparison, 2.9% is on par with Trump (2.92%) and Obama's (2.71%) best years. Pretty hard to believe, with all these headwinds ... war in Europe, inflation and the Fed overreacting, bear market for stocks, energy prices elevated ... that the country is still doing this well.
Yup, under employment with wage increases just keeps to much money sloshing around which keeps driving inflation.
And yet, just a few months ago, nearly every Republican campaign ad talked about how Biden had destroyed the economy. They knew it was a lie but their base would still believe it.
Joe hasn't done Jack except for spending more money that we don't have. Most of the GDP figure came from inventory buildup that will be reversed going forward. Consumer spending and business investment were flat and the layoffs are just beginning. "The fourth quarter capped a year of economic slowdown, in part reflecting a return to a more normal pace of growth after output surged amid business reopenings, fiscal stimulus and a waning pandemic in 2021. Economic output grew 1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with a year earlier, down from 5.7% growth in 2021 and 2.6% growth in 2019 ahead of the pandemic."
If the House Republicans get their way you might just get a reminder of what a financial crisis looks like. Normally we need Republican Presidents to leave a shitshow in their wake (Savings and Loan, Great Recession, Pandemic). Freedom Caucus is like… we can’t wait that long!
There was some dude on here that insisted the stock market (as well as jobs market) was fake under Obama, and would be cut in half. He kept at this for several years as the economy fully recovered. I used to always pose the same question, if you believe that so strongly, are you short? How much have you made shorting the market? It actually struck me as a guy that didn’t know anything about anything, so probably had no idea how to short. I just got amused at how certain he was that everything was “fake”.
Consistent growth between 2.5% and 3% every quarter is a sign of a mature economy. And mature economies are very good. You get consistent growth and it generally reaches all classes of people. A mature economy is what we had the last six years of Obama and first three years of Trump, where growth rates were between 2.5% and 3.0% for nine straight years. One thing about mature economies is they are very difficult to derail. Trump tried to cut taxes and increase government spending to get growth rates to his promised 5%. The result? Didn't work, and the economy kept chugging along at the same rate as before. Only the global pandemic threw a giant monkey wrench into things. We are still dealing with the aftermath on the economy of the pandemic, and certainly inflation was a problem caused by the pandemic on two fronts. One, significant supply shortages as people stopped working, and two, increased government spending as to not collapse the economy as unemployment jumped from under 4% to over 14% is some areas. And are still potentially in the throes of a recession caused by the pandemic, though the economic numbers aren't telling that story. Massive layoffs and high unemployment are often the last indicators of a recession, and we are seeing some of that today. But economic growth rates, in conjunction with the fact that there are still a large number of open positions could mean we are in store for a soft landing, and we will continue to see a mature economy in the coming months. The 2.9% quarterly growth numbers indicates this is a distinct possibility. If unemployment numbers don't tick up significantly, over the next few months, this will be another good sign.