The arguments giving rise to the pretext for the war were all historical revisionism, based on conditions HE CAUSED, or just plain contrivances.
I don't see Wagner ever agreeing to let any of those convicts go free. Their contract will be extended until they are killed, defect, or wounded beyond abilityto fight at which point the core Wagner group would likely summarily execute them
An interesting article calling NATO countries to prepare for war. There’s no negotiating with Putin. NATO must mobilize military might, be ready to fight | Guest Opinion (yahoo.com) The author doesn't seem to worry too much about nuclear war breaking out. But he is generally correct about Putin's ambitions.
Slovakia to send their MIG-29's to Ukraine. Slovakia ready to discuss transfer of MiG-29s to Ukraine (yahoo.com)
One does not have to wonder why a diplomatic solution was all but absent. I expect to hear more of this lament from Putin sympathizers as things continue slowly fall apart for Vlad.
If 100 tanks is enough to win the war, wouldn’t you think the side that has thousands would win first ?* *Just a variation on the HIMARS calculus.
I don’t think 100 Western tanks is going to decide anything one way or the other, but for the Russian histrionics alone it’s worth it. What is this, like, the 10th time they’ve threatened to nuke us if we did something? And every empty threat just makes them lose more and more face.
It seemed that in the past we treated Russia with kid gloves. Fearing the unthinkable. Now that we have called their bluff they are reduced to what they are a 3rd world country with a large but antiquated army and an all edged nuclear force.
Wanted to add some more thoughts on this after I reflected. Let’s say the President wanted Ukraine to be able to impose air superiority, all other considerations subordinated. The answer to that would be give them, let’s say, a full squadron of F-35s. Assuming cost was no issue, we trained their very best combat-experienced pilots, and we gave them the other enablers (which we won’t talk about here) that enhance their capabilities. All of those things are issues, but let’s just go with it. Further assuming some of the issues I will discuss below can be properly addressed, here’s what that could do for Ukraine: after the first couple of engagements, the Russian Air Force would make their excuses and abandon the close fight and have to pull back their aircraft from striking distance (anything, say, at airfields in Crimea would be as good as dead); the F-35s could then go to work with impunity on the Russian IADS in Ukraine, forcing the Russians to only turn on their radars at select times and/or use passive infrared systems and unguided AAA for air defense; this frees up the rest of the Ukrainian Air Force for close air support and chewing up the Russian logistics system, which is already heavily strained; in a matter of weeks the Russians would lose any aircraft they kept in the fight, any ships sitting in Black Sea ports, any critical bridges, and what remains of morale for the Russian land component. So that’s the good news. Here’s the bad. We can’t afford to have the Ukrainians lose any of those. Despite what any tools of the Russians and/or Chinese might bloviate, they really can’t defeat those aircraft in the air, a lucky shot in the dark notwithstanding. We weren’t sure of that this time last year, but we are now. Their fault. We are also pretty sure they know it, too, given how much effort they had put into persuading the American public via useful idiots that the things are too expensive and/or don’t work. The Chinese preferred countermeasure is to strike them while they’re on the ground, and the Russians would throw every effort at this. So right there, you couldn’t even consider this plan until the Ukrainians had the Patriots, C-RAM, etc system fully integrated and operational. We would also have to insist that they be stored in fortified underground bunkers, which would have to be built. We would have to insist that the Ukrainians only fly them at night in order to mitigate the risk of a lucky shot with an infrared missile or AAA, and that would lengthen the time it took to win. If one of them did go down in Russian-occupied territory due to a lucky shot or accident, then we would have to be prepared to destroy the wreckage ourselves (and in a timely manner), which has all kinds of problems attached to it. And, not least, while we might not mind the Ukrainians flying the things, we sure as hell aren’t going to let them maintain them; we would have to put in a contract maintenance team at top, top dollar into what would become the most high-value target area in Ukraine. Those are just the things that occur to me. There are probably others. On the whole, it would make more sense that if the President determined that Ukrainian air superiority was critical, then let’s just light that candle and do it ourselves.
“He went after Zelensky.” What kind of euphemistic gobblygook are you trying to push? Putin tried to murder Zelensky, decapitate the government, and annex the entirety of the country. It boggles my mind that anyone with an above average intelligence can sit behind a keyboard and claim that a stable Europe is not to the US’s benefit. It’s like you have no grasp on history.
Why are you comparing two guerrilla wars to the more traditional war going on in Ukraine? Why are you ignoring that the shortcomings in the Leopard 2 in Syria were addressed in the 2a6 model which is what is being donated to Ukraine (Turkey had the 2a4 in Syria and there have been two models with increased armor and upgraded guns since). Yes, training will matter as evidenced by the M1 in Yemen but I seriously doubt you’ll see Ukraine send tanks out unprotected like Saudi Arabia did.
Precisely. I even understand the attitude of, “Yeah, that sucks. Wrong all around. But I don’t want Americans at risk, and I don’t want to risk World War.” I don’t agree with it, but I get it. I simply don’t get, “Putin isn’t that bad,” “What Putin wanted was reasonable,” or “We couldn’t do anything about it even if we wanted to.” Putin and his ilk are that bad, they do deserve to have their asses kicked through their shoulder blades, and we are both capable of and justified in delivering said ass kicking.
Obama and Hillary gave Putin a "reset" button, meaning that all is forgiven and we trust you completely now. Everything in the past was a misunderstanding. Today is a new day, full of hope and rainbows. Weeks later, Putin invaded Crimea. One of Obama's bigger failures in foreign policy, especially after his "red line in the sand" turning into "cowering under the desk diplomacy" with Syria. (And before anyone says that Syria was Congress' fault for not supporting a war resolution, I would say that most poker players look at their cards before betting the house on their hand.)
Only if the tanks are equal. I suspect that they are not. How would you expect a 1960's tank to compete with a 1990's- or 2000's-era tank? A few might be able to hide well enough to ambush a western tank or two, but for the most part, the western tank will see them from a distance, and shoot accurately from a distance, well beyond the ability of the Russian tanks to respond with accuracy. Why do you think the Kremlin is crapping its pants right now? I also will agree with others that 100 tanks will not win the war, but they will help win a few battles that Ukraine wouldn't otherwise win.
I discovered this daily update podcast about a week ago and have found it to seem pretty reliable, to the extent I can discern. Qualified recommendation The Russia-Ukraine War Report
