Is the 2023 Roster Still Better than What Billy Inherited?

Amen

 

Have you ever seen a one of those "filppers" buy an old house in an established neighborhood, thinking they'd find a way to make some quick money? The buy the house for an inflated number thinking the market will never change, that they've got this figured out. So they tear down the old building, which could have used some updating but otherwise was functional, attractive, and with the right finishes could have been magnificent. Instead there's an empty lot and a sign for monstrosity that doesn't match the neighborhood or the surroundings. But because the developer didn't exactly have a plan for financing, and the architect they hired wasn't exactly up on building codes and standards, the house they wanted to build has to wait a few years before it gets started. When it does, the design doesn't exactly match the neighborhood, subs charge more than the flipper planned, and they end up skimping on some finishes. In a few years, they're on their third realtor, complaining about the market as weeds grow in what was supposed to be a manicured front lawn, before they eventually sell it, taking a loss on the project because instead of fixing and maximizing what was there, they only saw a teardown.

Not everything needs a teardown, and not every rebuild works. Just sayin'.

 

I flip houses and what you’re suggesting is complete incompetence.

 

Your words, not mine.

 

We have been putting on a new coat of paint, updating light fixtures and changing the drapes in the same house for years now. And the value didn’t budge. We need a new house.

 

Pity we didn't know that when we hired him...or after the 11-2 season. Hindsight and all that...

I'm all for Napier, but he needs to build the program, and we have absolutely NO guarantee our season will be better -- or worse in 2023. We cannot perpetually go through coaching firings/hirings every 2-3 years until we hit pay dirt. No serious coach would come here (and before anyone goes there, the Meyer situation was substantially different).

 

You lose all credibility when you make statements like receivers and qbs don't want to play here when we have guys like Mizell and Wilson signed and lagway currently committed. People keep parroting this narrative about our offense while ignoring that it performed relatively well considering out lack of WR/TE talent this year along with a wildly inconsistent QB.

Criticism of the situational play calling, time out use, lack of improvement throughout the year is totally reasonable. You lose people when you throw the baby out with the bathwater however.

 

I hear this, but when's the last time we didn't say this about a new coach? That the previous coach hadn't left a mess so big the only answer was a complete teardown?

Probably when Spurrier left.

So yeah, you tear it all down and rebuild it but sometimes nobody comes to the restaurant and then someone new has to come tear it down in 3-4 years.

Florida's cycle right now is ... not great. You get ~ 3 years to make magic happen, we don't have the kind of NIL support to thrive in this current environment and

I'd really prefer we let Billy have 5+ years no matter what, because this constant coach juggling hoping to strike gold doesn't seem to be cutting it as an approach.

 

I agree with your post.

Almost all of those three year periods were due to either or both of the following:

• The first batch for each of the coaches had the sweet smell of success only to turn the stench of crap at the third season.
• It became apparent that one or two of the HBC's, had gone AWOL and had let the program gone to seed.

It appears that it was not that the prior HBC's were not given an adequate chance. It was more like that they were bad hires.

 

The unfortunate part is we'll never really know. Did things go sour with the admin and McElwain & Muschmap just kind of gave up? It does ultimately seem weird to have 2 straight coaches just lose all motivation in year 3 after 2 successful ones before it. It seemed like neither wanted to coach here anymore. Why?

Ultimately I feel like one of the frustration points has been that UF doesn't seem to want to get as down in the dirt as some other SEC programs and it hamstrings coaches a little bit.

Or maybe we really did just have two coaches follow a weird arc. Who knows.

 

Ever seen a flipper do a little updating while the whole neighborhood does a tear down? The neighborhood builds back bigger and more modern and then the flipper puts his weird, 70s ranch with a "farmhouse forward vibe" on the market for the same price as the rest of the newer homes?
The flipper loses their ass. To make ends meet they go mow the Vanderbilts lawn every other weekend.

 

Very perceptive. We haven't had a coach with a total losing record at Florida since Raymond Wolf (1946-49), yet our tolerance for coaching stability has been very low. I came in in 1979, just when Charley Pell took over. Everyone howled that Doug Dickey was the worst coach ever at Florida (at the time), but how many realize that Dickey left with a .573 winning percentage and had "only" two losing seasons in nine years?

Gator fans understand the dismissals of Pell and Galen Hall were not due to poor coaching, but after Spurrier arrived, our standards shot through the roof. His incredible success led Gator Nation to believe the SOS tenure at Florida was now the new normal. Ron Zook came on board with largely green starting lineups, and was considered by many Gators foe worst coach ever going down to Pop Warner levels, yet Zooker still had a .622 winning percentage (since 2010, a period of 13 years, our winning percentage is .612).

Urban Meyer succeeded Zook and nearly had immediate success, thus reinvigorating the belief that the Spurrier Era was the New Normal, and all we needed was the "right head coach." In 2010, however, Meyer lost a bunch of starters, and his anticipated quarterback, Cam Newton, was kicked off the team. He was replaced by John Brantley, a traditional pocket passer, but John couldn't adapt as well as Chris Leak did in 2005/6. Others saw Meyer simply "checking out," or blamed Addazio, or whatever, but Meyer didn't have his team properly in place, and Florida returned to Zookland, so to speak.

Will Muschamp was an assistant head coach at Texas, and was acclaimed as a great DC (and the defensive rankings back him up), and it appeared that everything was roses after 2012, when he finished 11-2 against a tougher than average schedule. The bottom fell out in 2013, however, and his consistently poor offenses earned the enmity of a Gator Nation accustomed to lighting up the scoreboard since 1990. He wanted out and was granted his wish, even though Boom finished with a .571 winning percentage.

Enter Jim McElwain, an alum from the University of Nick Saban and an acknowledged offensive guru. After four years of Muschamp- we all saw him as the anti-Muschamp, yet if anything, the offenses were even worse. The defense held him up, however, and he started out 10-4 and 9-4, yet the pressure on him was so enormous, he concocted a story about death threats, and after a 3-4 start, he was told to leave, and was more than happy to do so.

We next have Dan Mullen, the OC behind the greatness of the Meyer Era. Mullen didn't enjoy his stay at Florida (his wife even less), yet like McElwain, started strong, going 10-3 and 11-2. His third season was a slight dip at 8-4, but trouble was brewing, and the discomfort was returning. In spite of having an outstanding .694 winning percentage, when he left, Gator Nation was jubilant - nearly half as much as Dan and Megan Mullen.

We now have Billy Napier, another coach who smoked the G5, just as Meyer did. He came in asking for patience in order to rebuild the culture, which seems reasonable enough, until he and his staff got the ear of the "noise in the system," as Ron Zook called the critical Gator Nation. Will Billy overcome this or crack to the pressure experienced by every coach since Spurrier? Even the Ball Coach was feeling the heat when he said "I guess ten-win seasons aren't good enough for Florida anymore."

Yes, people can say every elite program is this way, with rabid, impatient fans, and that the head coach gets paid a LOT of $$$ to step into the Gator's mouth, as though fiduciary compensation cures all ills. Being a head coach at Florida isn't just a pressure cooker for the coach, it is a Hell for the wives and kids who can't get away from the "noize." Since Jeri Spurrier, I'm not sure any of the coach's wives speak kindly of their experience at Florida.

Fan expectations do not build a program. There are many once elite programs (including 2-3 bluebloods) that have fallen from the pedestal and have yet to return to prominence. Don't think we can become Texas, Nebraska or many other schools who were consistently excellent? Think again. We aren't entitled to be elite. Napier needs time and yes, some patience, to try to rebuild this program, and with the evolution of the Portal and NIL, the road may be rockier than we think...

 

Well said.

 

If you don't think Corey Raymond is one of the most elite position coaches in the country, you're crazy.

 

Fans love to complain about scheme. I often wonder...imagine the poster sat beside a high-level film analyst.

I bet, if the fan described what they thought was Florida's scheme, the analyst would say: "You have no idea what you're talking about."

 

Bingo. It’s been the same story with every coach. The only reason Billy is getting this leash is because the first year stunk

 

To answer "why?" look for the constants/trends. And, I'd suggest this applies to CDM, too.

Constants: unbalanced recruiting, undisciplined play, mediocre QB production (except for Trask, who CDM wouldn't play until forced to and even then tried to mix in EJ).

Trends: previous coach left better players on the side-of-the-ball that is not the HC's strength, players don't develop at UF then go to the NFL and blossom, 2 relatively good years before crash (IMO: while roster is more balanced as recruiting unbalance shifts from one side-of-the-ball to the other).

Hypothesis: it wasn't that those coaches didn't want to coach at UF anymore. It was that they were exposed after 3 years as inadequate to be the HC for any elite program. HC at a lower level program: fine. Coordinator at an elite program: sure. HC at an elite level program: nope.

Conclusion: the problem is (and was) in the AD office. Recent hires in WBB, MBB, and Soccer haven't inspired my confidence.

 

Almost every coach gets a year 1 leash.

I don't think this year "stunk," at least not much more than I expected. The 8-4 best case for me sort of hinged on AR being able to elevate the whole team above some slightly better teams (like - and I choke a bit when I say this - Kentucky). But AR was very up and down and the rest of the team in a slightly weird state with some big holes.

I don't absolve CBN of blame here, but I don't think there are many coaches who could have done much better than 8-4 with that team and quite a few who could have done worse.

 

I thought that the new coaching staff would be able to do a little more with the D than the one before did, but that didn't happen. It got categorically worse. I thought 8 wins in 2022 would be a stellar season, but when you can't play D you get 6-7 (or worse sometimes )