Yes and it sucks because we started increasing the diffuliculty of our non conference games right aftwr those back to back years of 20+ win seasons without making the NCAA due to our poor non conference slate. That was during the Billy D era after we won those national championships. Of course that was when the SEC was a lot weaker. I personally think we can ease up on the non conference some like other SEC teams. I still think we can have a few tough non conference games but man it seems like our entire non conference schedule is always tougher than what it needs to be.
It’s not about “feeling good”, it’s looking at the schedule and realizing what would qualify as successful against the quality of opponents and home vs. away. 4-3 wouldn’t be terrible in this stretch even if we were a ranked team clicking on all cylinders! You make is sound like the season would be over unless we manage 5-2. My point is merely that this is not really true, even if we “only” manage 3 or 4 against this tough stretch we would still be a bubble team and would have more quality wins under our belt. Less than 3 and the math is harder given the overall record. Obviously when you are a bubble team each +/- in the W column can swing you on the right or wrong side of the bubble. We should be familiar with this exercise by now lol. In the last several years of White it seemed like we lived right here on the bubble.
Our OOC schedule was tough but it was hardly murderers row. I like the tougher and more varied schedule because even with the losses it helps the metrics much more than cruising through a bunch of cupcakes at home. It also helps expose what you are earlier. We dropped a couple to mediocre teams that should have been winnable or heavily favored by a team that has NCAA expectation, we might lament that if it comes down to a bubble scenario. But if we replaced a couple of those L’s with “wins” over teams ranked in the 300’s it wouldn’t really help us much.
True. But the lay public, by and large, doesn't look at quality wins and strength of schedule, and instead is wowed by those strings of 20-win seasons. Perception often becomes reality, and you reap the benefits of attendance, publicity, and recruiting. It may be all smoke, but still...
Tammy loss hurt and now I'm thinking Bammer is a given loss and may need to win 2 of 4 against UT, UK and KSU, then win the remainder to have a decent shot at the NCAA w/o relying on a deep SEC tourney run. Still might take a win or 2 to get in.
We have no shot at the NCAA Tournament. We just aren't that good. We challenged ourselves in OOC but didn't win any games of importance. Lost at home to FAU and got drilled by WVU by 30. I guess we could have a shot- I am just basing my take on the thought of winning 8 SEC games isn't sniffing the NCAAs.
Dude, FAU was not a bad loss, they are 17-1. If we can learn to start playing at the tip instead of waiting well into the game, we have a shot at winning quite a few. Winning 8 more is going to be tough, but not insurmountable. 7 of 8 are not "good" teams, beat UK or UT at home and steal 1 of the others a possibility.
What follows isn't much of a breather. February's tough. No delusion this year. Any post- season is a bonus.
I wouldn’t say “no shot”, but we really could have used that A&M win. At the end of this stretch being referred to in this thread, it could very well be “no shot”, but the games need to be played. Starting the stretch 0-1 is obviously… not optimal… if the assumption is we needed 3 or 4 minimum to stay in the hunt.
I didn’t say FAU was a bad loss. I’m saying it would have been a good win on our home floor but we made some dumb mistakes and blew a double digit lead. Which leads me to my point- we aren’t good enough to make a tournament push…because you have to actually win games.
If we win three out of the next six games, color me surprised and happy. 2-4 is more likely. At what point does the team not care if we win again or not after this brutal stretch? I hope we can finish the season with a winning record, but as the losses mount it is going to put us in the NIT if we break even or one under that. If you are a basketball fan you know Kansas State at home is going to be harder than Texas A&M, Tennessee, is loaded and deep. Kentucky is coming around and they will smell blood in the water. Alabama is waiting to mash us. If no injuries at this point and No one on the team is hooting threes at a high rate, we will be tramitized and limping into the end of our schedule. I will not give up on them, but at some point our team should know who should have the ball in their hands for any game saving shots. CC or Jones shooting threes at the end are no no’s. Will, Riley, Bonham and Rooster. Fudge only as a last desperate attempt. Using the Big German kid to shoot the last shot with little time remaking would be better than most on this team. He can shoot it. our staff has to figure it out or we could crumble down the stretch.
I prefer to think if we are firmly in 6th place...or better...and we win at least one game in the SECt, I think we are in. Now, how to get to that place. More consistent shooting and MUCH more consistent play by Lofton seems to be the formula. Kugel can be a dynamic player going down the stretch but we need to have better play by Lofton.
The MSU game is a must win and then obviously South Carolina. The next 4 after that is murder row, but if they can just win the home game vs Tenn, I think they'll have a chance at the tournament. That would be 2 Quad 1 wins, a huge win vs Tenn and a 6-5 record in the SEC. If they can then just win their last 4 winnable home games, that would put them at 10-8 in the SEC with a shot and the UK game could end up being another Quad 1 win. Their Net currently sits at 52 and they have no bad losses. Probably would then need 1 SEC Tournament win to have a realistic shot. Of course, win a road game vs. UGA or Vandy to get to 11-7 in the SEC and be in really good shape. However, if they don't win at MSU, it's hard to see this happening.
I seem to have a higher opinion of Lofton's play than most others here. He was never supposed light it up; that's not what he does. But what I see is a steady hand on the rudder when he's on the floor. And he would have a lot more assists if our guys could shoot.
The scary thing is we will be worst next year. We lose CC and whoever will transfer. Maybe he will have some luck in the portal.
I don’t think you have to “replace” CC, you just have to moneyball his stats. But we definitely need a competent big. The transfer portal is going to have to pay dividends for sure.
I like Lofton but for the starting pg, he has few assists. A few games he had none. Maybe ur right tho, if guys could only make shots he would have a bunch more.
