If this team has any hope of reaching the NCAA tournament via an at-large bid, they must perform well in this stretch of games. If they manage to go 5-2 during this stretch, I think they will put themselves in a great position.
Lol. 5-2? Against three top 15 teams (two on the road), at UK, and at an A&M team that already beat us? If we go 4-3, I will be ecstatic. Even 3-4 might keep us squarely in the hunt.
Yeah, 5-2 would be crazy amazing. I am just hoping to read water for now, starting by going 2-1 in the next three somehow.
The tail end of our SEC schedule is much easier. 10-8 regular season SEC is not out of the question and would make us a solid choice for the Dance.
That would be amazing and I’ll be in front of the TV or at the Arena chewing my nails off , but TBH , I’ve moved my personal goalpost for what I’d consider a good season ( I think the numbers are just too tough for an at large barring an 8-5, 9-4 finish the rest of the way) if we show season long improvement, establish stability and an identity with our new coach, finish a couple games over 500 in the SEC, and make a deep NIT run, I will be satisfied.
The OOC performance with 0 Quad 1 wins have put them in a position where they will have to play at a very high level to offset the slow start. 3-4 would have them at 13-11 (5-6) with games against Arkansas, Kentucky, tricky Vanderbilt(x2), and rematches with Georgia and LSU.
To an extent but committee has shown they appreciate teams who step outta comfort zone more than once or twice ooc. Just tread water and hope we can keep up level of play when things get easier. Those gaudy 12-3 or whatever records against 1 good ooc team have to be looked at way differently than ours.
Not if one of those losses is to K State. But the point is that losing to good teams isn’t going to kill you at this stage. Gotta avoid losing to worse teams and pick up one big win. 3-4 may be overstating it, but 4-3 should definitely keep us in the hunt. Our metrics (SOS, KP, NET) are all looking very good and “good” losses won’t hurt us overmuch, while a big win (UT, KSU, Bama, UK) could give us a nice bump.
4-3 would advance us, 3-4 wouldn’t do much either way, but we would need to finish strong as in win out, which is not out of the question. 3-4 and winning out is more likely than 5-2 in that stretch.
Come on man. 4-3 would mean we beat a (current) top 11 team or win @Rupp. 5-2 means doing two of those things and not dropping anything else on the road. I’d take that 4-3 right now. 5-2 is a tall ask. 4-3 would actually do quite a bit for us, as it would include quality wins. This is a brutal stretch of schedule. Even 3-4 would be “alright”. I’m guessing oddsmakers would have is no better than 3-4, perhaps 2-5.
I’m not saying what would make me feel good. I am saying what we would need to feel good on Selection Sunday. Maybe it upsets people because we look better recently, but burying your head in the sand doesn’t make the first half of the season any better.
Removes sand from my ears. What did I miss? Oh, right. Yes, we had a bad record the first half of the season. Against a VERY GOOD SCHEDULE. We just beat two teams with great records against KenPom 150+ schedules. Brand new young coach and a reworked roster means some sorting. The committee has always valued teams that catch fire. We don't have to undo the first half of the season. We don't have to beat 14 top ten teams in a row. We need to be the 7th best SEC team in a year when the SEC gets seven in the tourney, play like a top-third team the rest of the way, get a Q1 win or two. I'm ok with being on track for the last spot.
The NCAA has never gone by conference standings, ever. The NCAA does not value getting hot late, this has been wrong for a long time. See: TAMU last year. We technically finished tied for 5th in the SEC last year and didn’t come close to getting in. LSU finished tied for 5th and got a 6 seed. TAMU tied for 5th, was EXTREMELY hot to end the season and was like 3rd team out. Yes technically if we play like a 1-4 team in the SEC we probably get in because our record would likely be 12-6 at worst. I have no issues hoping for the best, but if we finish 7th in the conference without wins in Nashville we aren’t getting in.
