Russia-Ukraine war has shocked Putin — and military vets like me Everything he writes tracks with my own analysis.
US considering sending M2 Bradleys to Ukraine. Would certainly be a boost to Ukraine on the ground once the mud freezes. Especially as the war becomes increasingly about small unit engagements. M2 also has anti tank capability so it could really be a big boost and the us has a ton of them so inventory is not an issue. US Weighs Sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Bolster Ukraine Still think long range weapons and air craft would be most helpful but this would be a good move.
I hope we have emptied out all of NATO (minus Hungary) of its former Soviet equipment before taking this measure, but I’m all for giving Ukraine the tools it needs.
Targeting only civilians and their infrastructure after you failed at an invasion is cowardly. It may end up working but still.
I don’t think it will end up working at all. I think it’s a mark of desperation. The only thing that would work for Russia, in my opinion, is to put a bigger and badder army in the field than Ukraine. Eventually, they might be able to do that. But not today.
Listened to this last night and there was a decent discussion about the necessary training and interoperability about transferring weapon systems to the Ukrainians with optimal timing The War in Ukraine: A conversation with General Mark Hertling - The Meridian Podcast
Have not had a chance to listen yet, but interoperability was my primary concern with giving them the MLRS. So far, though, it’s been a huge force multiplier on the battlefield for Ukraine. If they can figure out that system, then they should have comparatively no problem with Bradleys and Abrams.
I don’t Wanna summarize what he said, because he and you speak languages with understandings I don’t have. But he did say that everything is not immediately transferable for training reasons. I don’t want to try to say more because I will likely misstate. He was against transferring cluster munitions because of how likely they are to result in significant civilian Injuries and deaths. And I didn’t realize that he himself had been the victim of a friendly fire cluster bomb in Desert Storm
Denmark intelligence services believe the cancer drugs Putin has allegedly been taking are to blame for the invasion of Ukraine. Apparently the drugs create "delusions of grandeur", which seems to be a hallmark of Putin's personality at this point. It's only a matter of time before Putin is viewed as a victim of medical malpractice in all of this. Clearly, his doctors should have given him an antidote that creates "delusions of ineptitude" to counter the delusions of grandeur. Putin took cancer drugs that warped his decision-making on Ukraine, Danish intel says, reviving disputed theories about his health That would probably explain the Jedi knight costume that Putin is rumored to wear in private.
That makes some sense. In my opinion, the delusions of grandeur were always there, but up until about a year ago Putin was always strategic and patient. His moves against Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine (2014) were deliberate, well planned, and limited as to keep world opinion below a dull roar. In fact, this time last year I was saying I did not know what Putin was really aiming for with his troop buildup around Ukraine, but I doubted he would execute a full-on invasion because it went against his playbook.
Poor Putin just got humiliated by Xi. He held a Zoom call with the Chinese leader in which he asked them to donate to his “go fund me” account.Xi was having none of it. It must burn Putin to be so clearly subservient to Xi especially with Biden making sweeping changes to improve our competitive posture vs China Putin to Xi: Let's build a military alliance. Xi: [crickets] That is likely no accident, either. The Moscow-Beijing partnership looked much better from China’s point of view before the invasion. Everything that has happened since should alert Xi to the massively imbalanced fruits of such an alliance, especially military. China is a top-tier economic power now, and at least nominally a major power militarily. Even before Putin’s insane attempt to conquer Ukraine, Russia was at best a second-rate industrial power with only their energy sector to give them any international-trade heft. Their genocidal campaign against Ukraine has likely damaged that export capability for a generation, as few will now be foolish enough to fall into Putin’s economic trap. As far as a military alliance, what value could Russia possibly provide China in such an arrangement? The Russian army is getting cut to pieces against a smaller army, and their infantry is likely to be nearly completely destroyed in the months to come. Their military leadership is incompetent and their intelligence apparatus either even more so or corrupt to the point of uselessness. Even the Russians’ weapons systems turned out to be poorly designed and badly used, and their doctrine hasn’t changed since World War II. Who needs a military ally like that? More importantly, why would Xi decide to cross that Rubicon and sacrifice critical commercial connections with the West, just to prop up Putin and his incompetents in Moscow while they lose what should have been a walkover war against Kyiv?
Strategically, Xi has a bit of a dilemma: without Russian backing, a gambit for Taiwan is off the table; fail to support Russian conquest of Ukraine, and the current Chinese-friendly regime may fall, leaving China without the necessary Russian backing; give the Russians too much support, and risk WW3 before the Chinese have a realistic chance of victory.
Some confirmation that Russia is running low on certain types of munitions. In this case, Russian units around Bakhmut are low on 152mm and 122mm howitzer shells, and they are not happy about it. Scandal in Russia's military leadership: What is being decided in Bakhmut Sounds like a highly professional army.
I think it's more than WW3 that keeps China from showing support openly for Russia. Their economy goes in the tank fairly quickly if they offend the west enough to persuade them to buy their products elsewhere. Some of it is already happening, as many western countries are moving manufacturing facilities out of China and into countries like India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
There would be some really good college football teams if that was allowed. Oops, back to the war in Ukraine!!
Unquestionably. Yet their plan (reportedly) was still to invade Taiwan last summer if the Ukraine invasion had gone remotely according to schedule. They were at one point willing to risk extensive economic sanctions. I think it’s general war with the U.S. where they draw the line for now.
