more chatter that Kreminna is next major city to be lost by the Russians Ukraine says forces closer to recapturing key eastern city of Kreminna | Ukraine | The Guardian Ukrainian forces appear to have edged closer to recapturing the key-Russian controlled city of Kreminna in Luhansk province as heavy fighting continued in the east and south of the country. The regional governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, said fighters in part of the city controlled by Russian command were forced to retreat to Rubizhne, a town a few miles to the south-east, as a result of Ukrainian military pressure. “The Russians understand that if they lose Kreminna, their entire line of defence will fall,” Haidai wrote on the Telegram messaging app on Tuesday. “The Russian occupation troops managed to build a very powerful defence in a month, even a little more. They are bringing there a huge amount of reserves and equipment. They are constantly renewing their forces.” Recapturing Kreminna and nearby Svatove could open the way for Kyiv to launch an offensive on Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, two cities Ukraine lost in the summer.
More comrades with mysterious deaths that can only further glorify mother russia. Another mystery death in Russia as general dies 1 day after Putin snub forget about the brain drain of people leaving the country, Putin seemingly (allegedly) killing anyone of consequence and who had two brain cells to rub together.
Russia is on the “Let’s just fire missiles at everything” stage. I think that’s right after denial. Russia fires 120 missiles from air and sea - Ukraine Russia fires 120 missiles from air and sea - Ukraine
I’m not sure that’s the word I would use. Using stand-off weapons, where you can engage the enemy and they can’t engage you, is as old as war itself. I also don’t object to measures designed to make the civilian populace grow tired of the war; our military aid to Ukraine is designed in part to do just that by maximizing Russian casualties. My main read on the Russian campaign to target Ukrainian civil infrastructure is that it’s all they can do right now. If they could advance, they would do it. If they could hold ground, they would do it. If they could negotiate a peace without alienating the “Little Russians” they mean to rule again someday, they would do it. Strategically, the Russians are losing for the moment. That is why it is critical that the West does not get soft and squishy on its support of Ukraine. Indeed, we need to increase military pressure in a number of ways already argued by me extensively in this thread. And, yes, I understand the essence of your post was more suggestive about the suffering of the Ukrainian people than it was about the cowardice of the Russian warfighter, but that is all the more reason why we cannot allow Russia any kind of face-saving strategic victory where they keep even one square meter of land that is not theirs. If we do, then that terrible suffering will be worth less than nothing to Ukraine, and it will all end up being well worth it to Russia for what it has suffered to this point.
I generally agree but I have one proviso that still nags me. Given their limited missile stock, why wouldn't they preserve it or at least try to use it for other tactical purposes? It's almost like they think that they have to break Ukrainian will in the next two months. That makes some sense. Who knows how long the Russians can keep going? But they are least trying to get the message that they are in it for the long run, even if they destroy everything. I understand that everyone tries to play that psychological game, but most outside observers seem to think that it accurately reflects the Russian mindset. Then again, most outside observers, even educated ones, thought that Ukraine could never give them a fight.
Do they really have this “limited missile stock,” though? I never really bought into that. It smells of hope more than reality. Historically, you don’t beat Russia by hoping they run out of stuff. You undermine their leaders by destroying their armed forces in the field, causing the people to rise up against them. And, of course, I understand that every resource is finite. Our ability to provide Ukraine with Javelins has limits. The naysayers all forecasted that we would run out of those, too, never accounting for our ability to turn on the war machine and make more. I’m certain that the Russians have surprising and innovative ways of replenishing physical stocks of munitions … so long as the national will holds out.
Obviously I only know what I read. But I had read in multiple places that they were very low on missiles, such that they were using anti aircraft missiles as surface to surface missiles. That was a couple of months ago. Of course, their manufacturing may keep producing them, although I also heard that manufacturing capacity was impacted by the sanctions regime. I admit I was a bit surprised that they had a sudden surge of missiles to attack infrastructure. So my presumption may be incorrect. But it still seems to smack of desperation. You very cogently noted that it's all they can do. But it also seems to be pretty short-term in trying to immediately compel some breaking of the will. Not sure. I try to read a lot but I don't feel like I have a strong picture of what's going on, other than immense suffering
To clarify, I am only opining that it is all they can do for now. I firmly stand by my prediction that Russia will inevitably adapt and find a way to bring their enormous material and manpower advantage to bear. Particularly if they continue to escalate but we in the West refuse to counter-escalate just to show we mean business.
I hope you're wrong but I have no real basis to disagree, other then I thought that would happen for so long and it hasn't yet. Don't really know. I keep hoping something will happen internally in Russia that will change the calculus, but that's also falls in the category of, if it hasn't happened yet, will it ever?
An uprising in Russia is what I want, too. But I think to have that is going to require catastrophic defeat of the Russian army. And Ukraine is not ready to deliver that. They might never be able to pull that off, but in all probability not at the current rate of support. The best we are looking at now is stalemate, say on the order of the Iran-Iraq War after the first year. And while that looks way, way better than how things appeared in February — when we all thought Russia would be all the way through Moldova within two months — Russia still “wins” if it keeps any stolen Ukrainian land, going back to 2014. In this case, a “tie” goes to the runner. The worst case, of course, is that Russia, maybe with some help, gets together a well planned, well coordinated offensive that overwhelms Ukraine in the spring. Under those circumstances, we really will be all sitting here wondering why we didn’t push Russia over the edge back when they were teetering. I still say, step 1 is getting rid of Jake Sullivan, no matter how politically embarrassing that is in the short term. He’s a lawyer and a campaign strategist, not a war-time consigliere by any measure, and he has been wrong every step of the way on almost every issue since becoming National Security Advisor.
Not going to get into it about Sullivan. Alliance building and maintenance is as key as any skill in this effort. Only point is that Russian history says coups, not uprisings. may have been what you meant
Diplomatic, informational, and economic measures are essential elements of national security. Never doubt it. But when those fail (or in this case, have been maxed out), you are left with military measures. And these are what we have left. He does not understand them, and he has failed to listen to the people who do. It is clear to me, if nothing else, that the Russians and Chinese think he is a joke and that they will be able to escalate with impunity as long as he is the guy the President listens to above all others. No, I meant uprisings. Yes, the communists seized power in a coup in October 1917, but it was the February Revolution (an actual revolution) that forced Russia out of the war for all intents and purposes. Another uprising in 1904-1905 forced Russia to accept an unequal peace with Japan, even though they were starting to get it together militarily (I mean on the ground; at sea, they were a joke, just like today). The only other coup I’m aware of in recent Russian history was the failed attempt to depose Gorbachev in August 1991. But I’m sure there were a few in the Imperial days. I think Catherine the Great, for instance, came to power in a coup.
There have been uprising, but mainly coups. Catherine's would best characterized as a coup, though there might have been shots fired but for some misdirection. Just read this a few months ago, which covers some general Russian history on the subject in the course of talking about her rise to power. The disputes between civilian and military advice similar to that described are evergreen, especially in democracies
Putin declares himself to be Sauron, handing out eight rings to leaders of former Soviet republics, keeping the ninth one for himself. Ukraine laughs itself silly at the comparison, indicating that the better comparison might be Putin = Gollum. The rings say "Happy New Year 2023" and "Russia". Putin does have a natural flair for public relations, I would have to say, after his 2022 invasion of Ukraine drew comparisons to Hitler's invasion of Europe. Putin Plays Lord Of The Rings, Gives Heads Of Ex-Soviet Republics Rings – Deadline "Yes, your state is independent, as long as you do everything I say." Once a toady, always a toady, I guess. I suppose that Zelenskyy in this comparison would be Frodo: the hobbit with the ring.
I'm waiting for Darth Vader Day at the Kremlin. I suppose Putin will come off as "Dark Helmet" in Space Balls (the Movie).
Russian draftees can now delay entry into the war in Ukraine by having their sperm frozen. You know, just in case. (Just in case the world's most incompetent army gets you killed or your family jewels blown off.) Some draftees are claiming that it takes over a hundred liters to get their wife pregnant, so it may be a while before they can join the military (just kidding). Bowing to popular demand, Russia may let reserve soldiers freeze their sperm for free before they head off to war
