While I am not in favor of changing transfer rules back, nothing is restricting the student athlete from getting NIL monies while sitting out a year either. NCAA still establishes eligibility requirements for student athletes. Third parties don't have authority to grant school admission, scholarships (as if needed, lol), spot on the team, or playing time if we want to go down that road.
Perhaps. But they can already tax the pro players on their salaries. Since college players are not (yet) “employees”, a state desperate for tax revenue might make the argument for taxing NIL money. Please understand, I am not advocating for this. I’m just saying that states can get creative when it comes to taxes. No one had ever taxed pro players on the income from games played in other states until someone did it, and it stuck. So it’s unlikely that NIL will be targeted. But not impossible.
I haven’t seen NIL ruin anything yet. My guess is they’re still going to be able to crown a national champion this year. And, I don’t think teams that finish in the Top 10 recruiting rankings are going to change much, either.
My gues is that it won't end because of taxes, ROI, or legislation. i think it will be legal action based upon a complant of unequal application of admissions standards by the unversity. Someone posted, "If these guys were smart, they'd have an LLC set up, etc..." If most were smart, they wouldn't need a different set of admission standards. If that gets taken away, NIL is done.
Fan support. Myself and many of my friends didn't even watch our bowl game and missed a few regular season games. This would have never happened ten years ago with my crew. We all fish a lot more now and think much harder about renewing our seats every year. It is my opinion that the pandemic and people wanting to get back out there has masked the reality of the situation. Most fans hate the current product and will turn on it eventually.
To bad Don King is no longer alive he would represent everybody get top dollar than steal most of it for himself.
All the guys setting this money on fire will realize"hey...who are we bidding against?" collusion will follow and prices will tank.
I think the 3rd party groups and university UAAs will slowly merge together over the next few years. Paper thin separation as it is now. Then, these "student athletes" will be treated as professional employees with performance expectations and employment contracts written by the employers.... No signature, no access to our fanbase, facilites, services, compensation, etc. The leverage will fall back to the Univeristy. These players will be scrambling to unionize for 'fair' treatment and pay. Essentially to regain their leverage throigh strikes. They will develop a CBA and the result will be middle ground. We are just in a "players have the leverage" stage. I think we have seen this movie before. It may take some back and forth over the next few years, but middle ground will be found.
I think over the next few years the lack of ROI will cause a lot of these deals to become smaller and more incentivized and the market will settle.
Ronald Reagan - “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’”
NIL ends when college football ends. Ie never or when college football finally collapses in 20 or 30 years. All NIL and transfer portal have done is finally fully removed the illusion that good athletes have any real loyalty to their school of choice or that school’s fans. Look at the Cormani McClain situation. Some of these kids have better agents than top pro players.
Lots of laws will have to change for that to come into affect. Changing those laws also won’t stop the third party endorsement money and the systems are already in place to circumvent any type of cap or even salary across the board once you make the players employees.
What will kill college sports is not the NIL. It will be the domination of the elite minded College Administrations and Athletic Departments. They will state that college sports and NIL in general are not DIE: Diverse, Inclusive, and Equitable. The striving for perfection, individualism, and winning runs against the goals of DIE. You may laugh at my statement, but go back this past summer and look at what happened to college women's swimming.
NIL isn't just about college football. South Carolina's women basketball program Vandy's baseball program Oklahoma's softball program Oregon's track and field program (men and women) Florida's gymnastic program. Gonzaga's men's basketball progam
