The Sky is NOT Falling - Thoughts on Recent Recruiting News and the Future... [LONG READ]

Claygator · Dec 22, 2022

makattack said: ↑

It's been a rough November and December for Gator fans; between the Vandy and FSU losses, the humiliation in Vegas, and now some misses/losses on the trail (some to rivals at that), there is a growing sense of disdain and worry taking root in Gator nation. Not without cause - 2022 was a season most of us will wish to forget, but it was also a time for us to come to terms with our current situation, ie. reality. The crux of it is this: we are simply not a good football team right now. And anyone expecting more than 6 or 7 wins this year was not someone I would recommend getting investment advice from. Mullen left the cupboards pretty bare (as in, he used up the sugar AND the milk) and didn't bother to replace them. We just witnessed arguably the least talented roster Florida has fielded since probably the 70's - that also means the least talented roster a UF head coach has inherited in over 40 years. This is not to excuse a poor performance, but instead shed light on why and where our expectations should have been coming in. He is polarizing, but I also believe he is realistic and Shane Matthews said numerous times throughout the season on his podcast that it would be a miracle for this team to win 7 games. I thought that was silly back in August - but then I looked closer and saw what he saw; a disturbing lack of playmakers, especially on the defense. Coupled with inconsistent QB play and you get a mediocre season of football. It's not rocket science; everyone knows you win championships with defense, but you score points with a QB who can throw completions. Florida had neither in 2022. And so now we close the book and put a pin in it. We turn the page or round the corner, whichever metaphor you prefer, and press onward towards the offseason and hope 2023 is somehow an improvement. Can it be? How? I'm going to pitch exactly how I believe it will be.

Only four days into the offseason and there are already rumblings amongst the community and fans about distrust or lack of faith in the leadership. Part of this is due to the product on the field, some of it is due to some recent misses on the trail. None of it is due to Napier himself, however. While the HC is certainly not without flaws (playcalling and time management certainly need work), he has largely been met with high favor and excitement within the fanbase. Known as a program builder and foundation layer, most fans knew Napier wasn't going to walk in and slap a new coat of paint on the dilapidated and crumbling infrastructure that was Florida football. No - extreme measures needed to be taken. Foundations needed to be ripped up and re-established, relationships rebuilt, culture reworked, and a winning mentality reinstalled. This was never an overnight job or a one-year wonder. It was never a "come in and win right now" situation. Florida fans knew our program not only needed work it needed a brand new vision and direction. And the right guy was hired to bring just that. The question is: will he have the time? That's up to him. One way or another, he will have to find a way to win more games in 2023 than he did in 2022. Will he? I believe he will have the pieces he needs and a more favorable schedule to do so.

ROSTER

Through means of the portal, graduation, and declaration, Florida is now without some 30+ players from its 2022 roster. Attrition brings opportunity, and attrition has surely come. It is now safe to say that the 2023 Gator football team will not closely resemble its previous version. This is a good thing. The Gators desperately needed an overhaul of the roster in key spots, and its unfortunate it had to wait until after a losing season to happen but here we are. Positions such as DL, LB, OL, and WR will be of key concern and areas of need. The departures of players like Ventrell Miller, Gervon Dexter, O'Cyrus Torrence, and Justin Shorter, leave voids of experience in their place. And yet, as good as each of those players were, it is likely that none of them could have started on a Georgia or Alabama squad (with exception to Torrence). It is the sad truth that in 2022 even some of the best Gator players were not good enough to go toe to toe with the bid dogs of the SEC. Miller had a high football IQ and great leadership qualities, but disappointing consistency and run stop ability. Dexter had size and strength, but disappointing play recognition and explosiveness. Shorter had height and length but lacked elite speed. Florida's best simply didn't measure up like they used to, and a surprising lack of depth behind them left no room for error or injury. For reference, Florida had one member on the All-Sec roster, both first and second teams. Alabama and Georgia had 12 each. There's your talent gap. Now, what to do about it? Recruit, recruit, recruit.

Florida is currently on track to field a top 10 class for 2023, with most major position needs being filled, however, there is plenty of room on the roster left and the portal will have to be utilized. I expect Florida to be a major player here, especially at positions like WR and DL. Also look for us to add at least one additional linebacker into the mix as the departures of both Miller and Burney leave a sizeable void of experience in that position. Though Shemar James and Derek Wingo have bright futures with their speed and physicality. Florida will return a decent group along the defensive line but could definitely use additional experience and leadership next to mostly younger faces (Powell-Ryland and Watson). The WR position is another area where talent and experience will be needed and I expect us to pick up at least one or two from the portal here. The loss of Shorter hurts, but with Pearsall and Henderson likely sticking around, the room will not be without talent or experience. There is, however, need for additional playmakers. While Pearsall has emerged as WR1, the lack of depth at the position must be addressed, especially considering the need for a QBs weapons to consistently be open. Something Florida struggled with this past season. However, look to see some new faces here as the '23 class brings in some talented athletes that will likely get to play as true freshmen. To have a passing game, however, requires an effective run game too (as we, unfortunately, witnessed in Vegas), which requires the big bellies up front to set the tone. The offensive line should be similarly good next year, even with the loss of Torrence, much of the same talent returns. Gouraige will be missed but is replaceable and young talents like Humphries, Leonard IV, and Tarquin will return as experienced Juniors. Add to that mix a massive body in the likes of Kamryn Waites (who admittedly struggled in Vegas) who anyone on staff or close to the program will tell you has a future as bright as the sun... and suddenly the picture offensively begins to look pretty clear. Napier's offenses pride themselves on physicality, and Florida will hammer this home even more in 2023. Literally.

Florida's run game should be as good or better next year, especially with just decent QB play to balance it out. To address the former first, both Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne return and its the first time in awhile Gator nation can truly look into the backfield and feel not only excitement but confidence. Recent years were met with frustration due to a lack of production from that group, either due to poor o-line play, or injuries. The last effective RB duo I can remember having some decent success here was Scarlett and Perine, and even those backs (who are now in the NFL) don't hold a candle to the potential that Johnson and Etienne have. Of course we all know the wasted talent that was Dameon Pierce - oh to imagine what he'd be doing in Napier's scheme... For Florida's current duo though, I expect at least one of them to go over 1,000 yards next year, and the other to not be far behind. Especially if Florida can get more consistent play out of its QB to help back the safeties and linebackers off the line.

Speaking of QBs... the current rumor mill says Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz is the favorite to come to Gainesville via the portal. This hasn't officially been announced by the university yet, but barring any last-second surprises, it is all but expected at this point. To be brunt, Mertz is not the lightning in the bottle commit fans were hoping for. For a one and done type year that 2023 would likely be for any portal QB, consistency and production were chief among fans' desires. Unfortunately, neither of those qualities are strengths of Mertz, who has struggled with his accuracy and consistency during his time at Wisconsin. Whether this is due to his own shortcomings or the passing scheme up there is anybody's guess, but the fact that the cheese fans aren't at all heartbroken over this departure is enough to give Gator fans a nervous stomach. I'm here to tell you all is not lost, however, and that Mertz might actually be a valuable addition when all is said and done.

For one, you have to look at it as a depth move. Florida is currently dangerously thin at the QB position and if 2022 has taught us anything it's that QB depth is incredibly valuable. Florida came into the season with 3 capable starters, but only one clear candidate. As the season unfolded, and AR's struggles became clear, fans began to wonder what the offense could look like with a different general. They got a chance to see that when Jalen Kitna, who is now no longer with the team, came in relief of Richardson and showed sparks of competency at the position. That ship has sailed, and rightly so, but it also leaves a gap in the roster. With AR declaring for the draft, Florida has precisely one game of experience between the remaining QBs on the roster. Not exactly promising, but also not a deal breaker ... right? You can build around a young QB but only if you have depth and experience behind him should the worst occur. That's precisely what Mertz would bring. I propose that this situation will work itself out in the end quite effectively, and that 9 months from now we will feel much better about our QB room than we do now. Mertz will not be a favorite to win the position, but he is a 3 year starter with valuable experience and wisdom. Maybe Mertz gives them a run for their money, in a figurative sense of course, but more importantly he likely just provides additional competition and a voice of experience and leadership in a QB room full of Freshmen and Sophomores who've barely played. Florida's future is not in Mertz, and it shouldn't be. He could however be instrumental in helping to mold the next starter at the position, be it Rashada or Miller, as well as providing additional depth where it is sorely needed.

A Leary or a McCall would have been nice, for sure, but Florida is hardly left wanting at the QB position, with two highly touted 4-stars ready to duel it out in the Spring. There will be a learning curve no matter who takes the field in early September, but if the Gators can improve around the QB position, they are set up to improve on their 2022 record. My prediction is that Miller wins the starting job, Rashada is given a redshirt and time to learn the offense and prepare for 2024, and Mertz is the capable backup behind Miller. In my opinion, all Florida needs is a game manager QB who can complete 60-65% of his passes on no more than 25-30 attempts. Florida will be a primarily run-first team in 2023, working heavily off of play action. All Miller (or whoever it is) must do is avoid crucial mistakes and deliver the ball where needed - tricker than it sounds at times, but fairly simple. See the field and deliver the ball with accuracy - if any of these QBs can do that it will be an improvement over 2022's passing game. And I think that's all UF needs for an uptick in offensive performance (which already ranked top 50).

SCHEDULE

Utah (away)
McNeese St (home)
Tennessee (home)
Charlotte (home)
Kentucky (away)
Vanderbilt (home)
South Carolina (away)
Georgia
Arkansas (home)
LSU (away)
Missouri (away)
FSU (home)

The path to 8 wins for the Gators isn't easy, but it never is. It's the wrong question - the right question to ask is whether it is achievable. Absolutely. But it also requires some things to change. The defense must see improvement across the board, and the QB must see open receivers and deliver the ball to them on time. If those two things happen, and that's a big if, Florida stands a very good chance of improving on its record. In my opinion, despite some tough road games, the 2023 schedule shakes out a little better than this year did. You could easily make an argument that Florida could start off 4-0 or even 2-2, but I think its more likely to be 3-1. Whether or not its Tennessee or Utah, take your pick, but I think its easy to see us dropping one of those. Utah will NOT be the same team next year, especially offensively, as they will be losing all of their key playmakers. That game is very winnable, but with it being up there in the mountains, you never know. Also, never underestimate Whittingham. Tennessee on the other hand will be without Hendon Hooker, but how different will the offense really look under Joe Milton? If he is able to work out some kinks in the off-season, Tennessee might be just as explosive. For my money though, I don't think this Vol squad will be nearly as lethal as the 2022 version, and I see this being a very close battle in the Swamp going either way. My money is always on the Gators, but I think a 3-1 start is a realistic assessment of the first quarter of the season.

Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Georgia all used to seem like very winnable games. Oh, what a time that was. Now, Kentucky is an annual pain in the ass and we can no longer assume anything. With the recent addition of Devin Leary, they are poised to pose yet another competent challenge for the Gators, especially on the road. I don't like the optics on this one, especially with the Gators still rebuilding - but I think its a far more competitive game than 2022's version, and I don't see our QB hand wrapping them 2 TDs either like last time. Vanderbilt should be a win this time (emphasis on should), though don't underestimate what Clark Lea is doing there. Florida's rebuild will happen much faster than Vanderbilt's, however, so not much worry there. South Carolina is formidable under Shane Beamer because he will acquire talent, but his in-game coaching is still highly questionable. I think it's a toss up as to which of these road games Florida wins, but I simply don't see us losing both. I think Florida goes 2-2 in this stretch, with a definite loss to UGA.

Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, and FSU. An incredibly physical and competitive closing month. Probably the hardest stretch of games to predict in all honesty, but I think Florida matches up well with Arkansas and Missouri and I see us winning both but Arkansas will likely be a brawl. LSU at death valley is a loss as it almost always is for us of late, but never count out the possibility of some magic if this squad can produce some defense. FSU is really where it all comes down to - as in, can Florida wash the vaseline off their hands and actually tackle Jordan Travis? If they can or figure out a way to slow down FSU's speed, I think its a revenge game for the Gators. Unfortunately, I think FSU is a little bit ahead in their rebuild and I expect them to be a better team next year as well. They were likely the 2nd best team in the ACC to close 2022. Norvell is doing a solid job in Tallahassee (where I reside) and I don't see them losing much talent or experience in 2023. I see November as a 2-2 month.

That puts Florida at 7-5 for 2023, with an opportunity to finish 8-5 with a bowl win. And I think this time they do, with fewer opt-outs and a more loyal team due to comradery and culture. For the record, I think this is conservative, and that there is a path to 9-4 - its just hard to predict which of those is the one where we win as an underdog.

My case for this team is that the future is bright, and barring any catastrophes in the way of injuries or what have you, 2023 should be a solid step in the right direction with improved play across all positions. I think its hard to make the case that Florida will be worse at any one position, with perhaps the one exception being LB. Across the board, most of the same talent that produced in 2022 returns, and will be bolstered with extra talent in the recruiting class as well as experience from the portal. There is really no where left to go but up in 2023, and whether its 7 wins or 8, or even 9, I think there is an easy case to be made that Florida is an improved team and that the Billy Napier rebuild is working. But it will require some patience and most importantly perspective - an ounce of each and in a few years, I think we are smiling on the Billy regime.
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Do you have a Cliff notes version of this? Not that I am going to read it either, but at least I might think about it.

Tolbert1906 · Dec 23, 2022

TLDR: I believe we will go 5-7 in 2023. I voted 7 wins before looking at the schedule.

I think 8 wins is our ceiling next year.

Probable losses:
Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, FSU

The talent gap will be too much to overcome here. Additionally, Billy was completely outcoached in each of these games this past season and that will likely happen again. He will need to delegate play-calling to a more competent OC, imo, to get a win or two here.

Toss-ups:
Utah, Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas

It's hard to say how these will turn out. We play at Utah, so they will have an advantage there, but they will also be rebuilding. I think Kentucky will be improved, but I don't think we'll have a complete QB implosion against them like we did this year. South Carolina will be improved and won't likely lay an egg against us again. Arkansas is kind of an enigma. They sometimes play tough but also have some boneheaded losses.

Probable wins:
McNeese St, Charlotte, Vanderbilt, Missouri

These teams are really bad and we should beat them handily. However, if the team comes out flat in any of these games, we could lose (as Vandy demonstrated this year).

My prediction (5-7):
Utah (away) - L (first game jitters, new QB, away game)
McNeese St (home) - W
Tennessee (home) - L
Charlotte (home) - W
Kentucky (away) - W
Vanderbilt (home) - W
South Carolina (away) - L (revenge game, away game, complacency/overconfidence)
Georgia - L
Arkansas (home) - W
LSU (away) - L
Missouri (away) - L (deflating loss to LSU carries over to this game, Billy gets outcoached, injuries late in season, away game)
FSU (home) - L

I do think we'll be better in 2023, though it won't necessarily show in the W-L column. 5-7 seems realistic to me. 7-5 is optimistic but achievable. Best case scenario would be 8 wins, imo. Rebuilds are tough. Year three should show some marked improvement in number of wins.

gatorogue · Dec 23, 2022

gator56 said: ↑

While I can quibble with some of the analysis I thought it was well thought out and pretty much on point. However all of us are pretty disappointed with how the season played out.(for my money the season ended up as a D+) There is never an excuse to losing to Vandy and to lose to KY for the 3rd time out of 5(or 6) years (after beating them 31+ years in a row is inexcusable. That all being said we are on our 4th coach in the last 12 years and shades of Tenn. you can not maintain a successful program with so much turnover.
I was in school during in 1979(showing my age) during the 0-10-1 season and the Lindsey Scott game so believe me this is not the worst. GO GATORS
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Agree. But after '79 things were pretty good for the next 30 years or so, the usual ups and downs but a lot of fun.....don't know why but the past 10-12 years seem worse.....the game has certainly changed and now with the increasingly busy tractor beam portal transfers and NIL not sure where it's headed...
Even the Lindsay Scott game was great and exciting despite the heartbreaking ending......A surprisingly good Gator team taking on Herschel Walker and the future national champs.....I was at the game with my little brother, and as the game clock was winding down, we were standing at the field level railing in the end zone where the Gators had the bulldogs trapped.....thinking about running onto the field when the Gators won but probably not....way too many troopers there at the world's largest cocktail party......then watched Buck Belue scramble on third down and a short pass to Scott.....last thing I remember was watching Scott's backside as he disappeared down the sideline toward a section of screaming bulldog fans standing and cheering amid a chaos of red and black and those damn pompoms. My brother and I took off for the exits soon after and running through the parking lot we could see georgia fans who had left early thinking the bulldogs were done all gathered around their radios listening to the broadcast celebrating after hearing the news......great memories....Go Gators

Crusher · Dec 23, 2022

gatorogue said: ↑

Agree. But after '79 things were pretty good for the next 30 years or so, the usual ups and downs but a lot of fun.....don't know why but the past 10-12 years seem worse.....the game has certainly changed and now with the increasingly busy tractor beam portal transfers and NIL not sure where it's headed...
Even the Lindsay Scott game was great and exciting despite the heartbreaking ending......A surprisingly good Gator team taking on Herschel Walker and the future national champs.....I was at the game with my little brother, and as the game clock was winding down, we were standing at the field level railing in the end zone where the Gators had the bulldogs trapped.....thinking about running onto the field when the Gators won but probably not....way too many troopers there at the world's largest cocktail party......then watched Buck Belue scramble on third down and a short pass to Scott.....last thing I remember was watching Scott's backside as he disappeared down the sideline toward a section of screaming bulldog fans standing and cheering amid a chaos of red and black and those damn pompoms. My brother and I took off for the exits soon after and running through the parking lot we could see georgia fans who had left early thinking the bulldogs were done all gathered around their radios listening to the broadcast celebrating after hearing the news......great memories....Go Gators
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If you call those great memories instead of terrible...I think you might be a ball-licker.

This is a great memory:

makattack · Dec 23, 2022

DeepPurpleGator said: ↑

WWDR (Well written, DID read!)
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Much appreciated. I know it was long winded, and I get the people making jokes about that, but if you're not interested in reading it you don't have to be an ass about it. Just move along.

For those that did read and commented on it - appreciate the patience reading it and the feedback. I just wanted to share some thoughts on the program and see who here sees it like I do. I know I am too wordy at times so I do apologize for that but I try to be clear with my phrasing and opinions.

makattack · Dec 23, 2022

DeepPurpleGator said: ↑

2022 was not good, but we got rid of the deadwood and the rebuild is ON. The future is bright, and 2023 should be a solid step in the right direction with improved play across all positions. There is really no where left to go but up in 2023, and whether its 7 wins or 8, or even 9, I think there is an easy case to be made that Florida is an improved team and that the Billy Napier rebuild is working. Be patient!
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This is a pretty dang good TLDR - not gonna lie.

Thank you for providing that.

EDIT: I have since amended the original post to add your Cliff Notes' version.

gatorogue · Dec 23, 2022

Crusher said: ↑

If you call those great memories instead of terrible...I think you might be a ball-licker.

This is a great memory:
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LOL....yeah, the pain from that day has faded just a little.....it was over 40 years ago....but I actually look back on that game with a sense
of appreciation....the roller coaster ride....that's what makes life fun.....and I was at the FL-GA game when the Gators won 27-0.....Kerwin to
Ricky for a 96 yd TD....payback for the Lindsay Scott TD......yeah, great memories.....I'll leave the ball licking to you....Go Gators

The_RH_Factor · Dec 24, 2022

gator7_5 said: ↑

We will get routed by UT, Uga, and fsu next year. And that sucks.
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And, don’t forget LSU and the annual loss to Kentucky.

The_RH_Factor · Dec 24, 2022

DeepPurpleGator said: ↑

2022 was not good, but we got rid of the deadwood and the rebuild is ON. The future is bright, and 2023 should be a solid step in the right direction with improved play across all positions. There is really no where left to go but up in 2023, and whether its 7 wins or 8, or even 9, I think there is an easy case to be made that Florida is an improved team and that the Billy Napier rebuild is working. Be patient!
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I looked at our schedule and 7 wins seems to be a stretch.

How hot the seat CBN is in will be how we’re looking for 2024.

The_RH_Factor · Dec 24, 2022

Crusher said: ↑

If you call those great memories instead of terrible...I think you might be a ball-licker.

This is a great memory:
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The best part of this play is Nattiel didn’t drop the ball on the one yard line, thinking he had already scored.

kes · Dec 25, 2022

Thanks for the time and effort. I agree with a lot of it. My concern is with turnover of this scale. we have no choice but to be young. That can’t be overcome easily, especially with the suspect coaching we saw. We need an OC and perhaps DC.

TJtheGator · Dec 25, 2022

The_RH_Factor said: ↑

I looked at our schedule and 7 wins seems to be a stretch.

How hot the seat CBN is in will be how we’re looking for 2024.
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If Billy goes 6-7 or worse again in 2023 he enters 2024 on the absolute hottest seat imaginable.

We fired Zook, Muschamp, McElwain, and Mullen for less.

spike718 · Dec 25, 2022

The OP and a few others put down some well thought out (and quite long ) posts on the future. Thanks. I read them all.

Some mentioned gator fans have put their faith in 3 coaches recently, heard all their plans, etc. I am in the boat that I probably have a shorter fuse or leash for new coaches than I did previously or probably should have. For example, Mullen started Franks over Trask but I trusted it at the time. Mertz as the portal qb? Been burned by pretty much every recent coach with. “Trust the process” or “we gotta get that fixed” and “pretty neat, huh?” And nothing ever changes. My biggest frustration is that all of these coaches seemed to have limited to no way to see own flaws and / or to actual adjust and make changes - that many at the time pointed out.

Recruiting has been good but not great. I Wanted a ton of guys to transfer but now seeing projected starters hitting the portal is concerning. Figured we would replace guys leaving with influx of recruits and portal behind we signed 5-8 less high schoolers than insiders stated coaches wanted and now are slow to acquire talent in the portal. Could be that everything works out with more time but…I was told that same thing with Muschamp and Mac and Mullen. Trust the coaches. So Napier, who probably has a harder rebuild than the prior 3, may suffer from “trust the coaches” fatigue. Many many many fans- yes, we aren’t coaches but many fans know their stuff- have pointed out major issues in real time with all 3 prior coaches. And some are doing similar now. Hard not to see the faults of the new guys in this way. Just hope this head coach isn’t so set in his ways that he can’t adapt and change where and if needed.

Napier was my preferred choice as coach and I want him to succeed. Hell, I would want every gator coach to succeed. So gonna try to be positive but coaches also need to give fans reasons to believe.

volungator · Dec 25, 2022

spike718 said: ↑

Just hope this head coach isn’t so set in his ways that he can’t adapt and change where and if needed.
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Head coaches today have no reason to get stressed. Even if they fail they'll earn 5-8 million per year and walk out the door with (in our case) another 7 million.

TJtheGator · Dec 25, 2022

spike718 said: ↑

My biggest frustration is that all of these coaches seemed to have limited to no way to see own flaws and / or to actual adjust and make changes - that many at the time pointed out.

I hope this head coach isn’t so set in his ways that he can’t adapt and change where and if needed.

Napier was my preferred choice as coach and I want him to succeed. Hell, I would want every gator coach to succeed. So gonna try to be positive but coaches also need to give fans reasons to believe.
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Biggest takeaways from this post and some of the same things I’ve been saying.

I am a believer that we must give Napier ample time, but he has to show us progress while he is afforded this time.

Another 2022 repeat and the heat will be turned on, there is simply no way to avoid that.

Foley’s influence kept Muschamp from being fired in 2013 using the 20-something season-ending injuries as a justification.

Two blowouts in Atlanta to the Crimson Tide had the higher-ups grumbling about McElwain. The “death threats” just gave use cause to fire him.

Wasting 2020 with Hevesy and Grantham and taking a lackadaisical approach with the Cotton Bowl loss against OU landed Mullen in hot water with our boosters. 5-5 over the next 10 games and the axe came down.

The people who measure the pulse of the UF football program know when something isn’t right.

Two losing seasons to start Napier’s tenure will signify that something isn’t right, and in fact that a lot of things are wrong. Dating back to Ray Graves in 1960 the only Gator coach to start his tenure with a losing record is Charley Pell in 1979, and he followed that up with 8-4 in 1980. The only one who came close after him was Lumpy at 7-6, but he followed that up with 11-2 in 2012. Napier starting out with two consecutive losing season lands him in a category onto his own; not really gonna count anything pre-1960 as it is not relevant to UF today.

That is simply not going to sit well with our influential boosters. Tell me I’m wrong all you want but how can anyone have faith in a coach who just produced two losing seasons to stsart his tenure when no other coach in 63+ years has done that?

And I’m not even saying we will fire him for that. But he will definitely enter 2024 sitting on a volcano of a hot seat with our influential donors and boosters breathing down his neck. It is reality. Simply no way he can keep them at bay if he has a losing season in 2023. At that point anything other than a dominant campaign in ‘24 and it’s courtains for both Napier and Stricklin.

INGATORSWETRUST · Dec 25, 2022

OL went from strength to weakness Need someone from portal badly. Hoping Billy has another starting OL from old team that can transfer now.

spike718 · Dec 25, 2022

TJtheGator said: ↑

Biggest takeaways from this post and some of the same things I’ve been saying.

I am a believer that we must give Napier ample time, but he has to show us progress while he is afforded this time.

Another 2022 repeat and the heat will be turned on, there is simply no way to avoid that.

Foley’s influence kept Muschamp from being fired in 2013 using the 20-something season-ending injuries as a justification.

Two blowouts in Atlanta to the Crimson Tide had the higher-ups grumbling about McElwain. The “death threats” just gave use cause to fire him.

Wasting 2020 with Hevesy and Grantham and taking a lackadaisical approach with the Cotton Bowl loss against OU landed Mullen in hot water with our boosters. 5-5 over the next 10 games and the axe came down.

The people who measure the pulse of the UF football program know when something isn’t right.

Two losing seasons to start Napier’s tenure will signify that something isn’t right, and in fact that a lot of things are wrong. Dating back to Ray Graves in 1960 the only Gator coach to start his tenure with a losing record is Charley Pell in 1979, and he followed that up with 8-4 in 1980. The only one who came close after him was Lumpy at 7-6, but he followed that up with 11-2 in 2012. Napier starting out with two consecutive losing season lands him in a category onto his own; not really gonna count anything pre-1960 as it is not relevant to UF today.

That is simply not going to sit well with our influential boosters. Tell me I’m wrong all you want but how can anyone have faith in a coach who just produced two losing seasons to stsart his tenure when no other coach in 63+ years has done that?

And I’m not even saying we will fire him for that. But he will definitely enter 2024 sitting on a volcano of a hot seat with our influential donors and boosters breathing down his neck. It is reality. Simply no way he can keep them at bay if he has a losing season in 2023. At that point anything other than a dominant campaign in ‘24 and it’s courtains for both Napier and Stricklin.
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If he has two losing seasons in a row I can hear it now…

We all knew it was a total rebuild, part of the process. Justifying more time. And maybe it is warranted but…

but I know I’m not the only one who thought that…and astute observers on podcasts and elsewhere mentioned…that Napier and team seemed more about establishing culture and systems and process than tactically trying to win games. I don’t know that to be fact. But trusting the process for a hopeful long term upside that may never come while losing winnable games and coming up with a losing record - especially if two years in a row…is frustrating.

TJtheGator · Dec 25, 2022

spike718 said: ↑

If he has two losing seasons in a row I can hear it now…

We all knew it was a total rebuild, part of the process. Justifying more time. And maybe it is warranted but…

but I know I’m not the only one who thought that…and astute observers on podcasts and elsewhere mentioned…that Napier and team seemed more about establishing culture and systems and process than tactically trying to win games. I don’t know that to be fact. But trusting the process for a hopeful long term upside that may never come while losing winnable games and coming up with a losing record - especially if two years in a row…is frustrating.
Click to expand...

A straight up con if you ask me. Again I’m willing to give Napier 5 years. But if he says trust the process, do not look at my record in years 1-4 and you will finally see results in year 5 all I will see is a man who just stole $38 million from UF.

slayerxing · Dec 26, 2022

I gotta be honest - this take is premature. Florida needs to add a dozen more players through the portal before next season starts for us to have any idea at all on how they will look.

they are tissue paper thin at rush end/olb, DE, star, and safety on defense and only have 3 scholarship rb. We have no idea who the qb will be, and the need to get some portal players at ol, wr, and probably TE if they want an immediate impact type player.

fesgator · Dec 27, 2022

slayerxing said: ↑

I gotta be honest - this take is premature. Florida needs to add a dozen more players through the portal before next season starts for us to have any idea at all on how they will look.

they are tissue paper thin at rush end/olb, DE, star, and safety on defense and only have 3 scholarship rb. We have no idea who the qb will be, and the need to get some portal players at ol, wr, and probably TE if they want an immediate impact type player.
Click to expand...

My hope is that Napier will be able to reel in a few high impact transfer portal players after the bowl season is over.

The only caveat to that is… everyone else will be vying for the same high impact players. Gotta get 2-3 IMO on the OL who can contribute immediately.

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