The Sky is NOT Falling - Thoughts on Recent Recruiting News and the Future... [LONG READ]

Before I start, I should warn you this will be an exhaustive take on the program and it's future. For those unwilling to read through it all, I have provided a TLDR at the end. Now let's get into it...

It's been a rough November and December for Gator fans; between the Vandy and FSU losses, the humiliation in Vegas, and now some misses/losses on the trail (some to rivals at that), there is a growing sense of disdain and worry taking root in Gator nation. Not without cause - 2022 was a season most of us will wish to forget, but it was also a time for us to come to terms with our current situation, ie. reality. The crux of it is this: we are simply not a good football team right now. And anyone expecting more than 6 or 7 wins this year was not someone I would recommend getting investment advice from. Mullen left the cupboards pretty bare (as in, he used up the sugar AND the milk) and didn't bother to replace them. We just witnessed arguably the least talented roster Florida has fielded since probably the 70's - that also means the least talented roster a UF head coach has inherited in over 40 years. This is not to excuse a poor performance, but instead shed light on why and where our expectations should have been coming in. He is polarizing, but I also believe he is realistic and Shane Matthews said numerous times throughout the season on his podcast that it would be a miracle for this team to win 7 games. I thought that was silly back in August - but then I looked closer and saw what he saw; a disturbing lack of playmakers, especially on the defense. Coupled with inconsistent QB play and you get a mediocre season of football. It's not rocket science; everyone knows you win championships with defense, but you score points with a QB who can throw completions. Florida had neither in 2022. And so now we close the book and put a pin in it. We turn the page or round the corner, whichever metaphor you prefer, and press onward towards the offseason and hope 2023 is somehow an improvement. Can it be? How? I'm going to pitch exactly how I believe it will be.

Only four days into the offseason and there are already rumblings amongst the community and fans about distrust or lack of faith in the leadership. Part of this is due to the product on the field, some of it is due to some recent misses on the trail. None of it is due to Napier himself, however. While the HC is certainly not without flaws (playcalling and time management certainly need work), he has largely been met with high favor and excitement within the fanbase. Known as a program builder and foundation layer, most fans knew Napier wasn't going to walk in and slap a new coat of paint on the dilapidated and crumbling infrastructure that was Florida football. No - extreme measures needed to be taken. Foundations needed to be ripped up and re-established, relationships rebuilt, culture reworked, and a winning mentality reinstalled. This was never an overnight job or a one-year wonder. It was never a "come in and win right now" situation. Florida fans knew our program not only needed work it needed a brand new vision and direction. And the right guy was hired to bring just that. The question is: will he have the time? That's up to him. One way or another, he will have to find a way to win more games in 2023 than he did in 2022. Will he? I believe he will have the pieces he needs and a more favorable schedule to do so.

ROSTER

Through means of the portal, graduation, and declaration, Florida is now without some 30+ players from its 2022 roster. Attrition brings opportunity, and attrition has surely come. It is now safe to say that the 2023 Gator football team will not closely resemble its previous version. This is a good thing. The Gators desperately needed an overhaul of the roster in key spots, and its unfortunate it had to wait until after a losing season to happen but here we are. Positions such as DL, LB, OL, and WR will be of key concern and areas of need. The departures of players like Ventrell Miller, Gervon Dexter, O'Cyrus Torrence, and Justin Shorter, leave voids of experience in their place. And yet, as good as each of those players were, it is likely that none of them could have started on a Georgia or Alabama squad (with exception to Torrence). It is the sad truth that in 2022 even some of the best Gator players were not good enough to go toe to toe with the bid dogs of the SEC. Miller had a high football IQ and great leadership qualities, but disappointing consistency and run stop ability. Dexter had size and strength, but disappointing play recognition and explosiveness. Shorter had height and length but lacked elite speed. Florida's best simply didn't measure up like they used to, and a surprising lack of depth behind them left no room for error or injury. For reference, Florida had one member on the All-Sec roster, both first and second teams. Alabama and Georgia had 12 each. There's your talent gap. Now, what to do about it? Recruit, recruit, recruit.

Florida is currently on track to field a top 10 class for 2023, with most major position needs being filled, however, there is plenty of room on the roster left and the portal will have to be utilized. I expect Florida to be a major player here, especially at positions like WR and DL. Also look for us to add at least one additional linebacker into the mix as the departures of both Miller and Burney leave a sizeable void of experience in that position. Though Shemar James and Derek Wingo have bright futures with their speed and physicality. Florida will return a decent group along the defensive line but could definitely use additional experience and leadership next to mostly younger faces (Powell-Ryland and Watson). The WR position is another area where talent and experience will be needed and I expect us to pick up at least one or two from the portal here. The loss of Shorter hurts, but with Pearsall and Henderson likely sticking around, the room will not be without talent or experience. There is, however, need for additional playmakers. While Pearsall has emerged as WR1, the lack of depth at the position must be addressed, especially considering the need for a QBs weapons to consistently be open. Something Florida struggled with this past season. However, look to see some new faces here as the '23 class brings in some talented athletes that will likely get to play as true freshmen. To have a passing game, however, requires an effective run game too (as we, unfortunately, witnessed in Vegas), which requires the big bellies up front to set the tone. The offensive line should be similarly good next year, even with the loss of Torrence, much of the same talent returns. Gouraige will be missed but is replaceable and young talents like Humphries, Leonard IV, and Tarquin will return as experienced Juniors. Add to that mix a massive body in the likes of Kamryn Waites (who admittedly struggled in Vegas) who anyone on staff or close to the program will tell you has a future as bright as the sun... and suddenly the picture offensively begins to look pretty clear. Napier's offenses pride themselves on physicality, and Florida will hammer this home even more in 2023. Literally.

Florida's run game should be as good or better next year, especially with just decent QB play to balance it out. To address the former first, both Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne return and its the first time in awhile Gator nation can truly look into the backfield and feel not only excitement but confidence. Recent years were met with frustration due to a lack of production from that group, either due to poor o-line play, or injuries. The last effective RB duo I can remember having some decent success here was Scarlett and Perine, and even those backs (who are now in the NFL) don't hold a candle to the potential that Johnson and Etienne have. Of course we all know the wasted talent that was Dameon Pierce - oh to imagine what he'd be doing in Napier's scheme... For Florida's current duo though, I expect at least one of them to go over 1,000 yards next year, and the other to not be far behind. Especially if Florida can get more consistent play out of its QB to help back the safeties and linebackers off the line.

Speaking of QBs... the current rumor mill says Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz is the favorite to come to Gainesville via the portal. This hasn't officially been announced by the university yet, but barring any last-second surprises, it is all but expected at this point. To be brunt, Mertz is not the lightning in the bottle commit fans were hoping for. For a one and done type year that 2023 would likely be for any portal QB, consistency and production were chief among fans' desires. Unfortunately, neither of those qualities are strengths of Mertz, who has struggled with his accuracy and consistency during his time at Wisconsin. Whether this is due to his own shortcomings or the passing scheme up there is anybody's guess, but the fact that the cheese fans aren't at all heartbroken over this departure is enough to give Gator fans a nervous stomach. I'm here to tell you all is not lost, however, and that Mertz might actually be a valuable addition when all is said and done.

For one, you have to look at it as a depth move. Florida is currently dangerously thin at the QB position and if 2022 has taught us anything it's that QB depth is incredibly valuable. Florida came into the season with 3 capable starters, but only one clear candidate. As the season unfolded, and AR's struggles became clear, fans began to wonder what the offense could look like with a different general. They got a chance to see that when Jalen Kitna, who is now no longer with the team, came in relief of Richardson and showed sparks of competency at the position. That ship has sailed, and rightly so, but it also leaves a gap in the roster. With AR declaring for the draft, Florida has precisely one game of experience between the remaining QBs on the roster. Not exactly promising, but also not a deal breaker ... right? You can build around a young QB but only if you have depth and experience behind him should the worst occur. That's precisely what Mertz would bring. I propose that this situation will work itself out in the end quite effectively, and that 9 months from now we will feel much better about our QB room than we do now. Mertz will not be a favorite to win the position, but he is a 3 year starter with valuable experience and wisdom. Maybe Mertz gives them a run for their money, in a figurative sense of course, but more importantly he likely just provides additional competition and a voice of experience and leadership in a QB room full of Freshmen and Sophomores who've barely played. Florida's future is not in Mertz, and it shouldn't be. He could however be instrumental in helping to mold the next starter at the position, be it Rashada or Miller, as well as providing additional depth where it is sorely needed.

A Leary or a McCall would have been nice, for sure, but Florida is hardly left wanting at the QB position, with two highly touted 4-stars ready to duel it out in the Spring. There will be a learning curve no matter who takes the field in early September, but if the Gators can improve around the QB position, they are set up to improve on their 2022 record. My prediction is that Miller wins the starting job, Rashada is given a redshirt and time to learn the offense and prepare for 2024, and Mertz is the capable backup behind Miller. In my opinion, all Florida needs is a game manager QB who can complete 60-65% of his passes on no more than 25-30 attempts. Florida will be a primarily run-first team in 2023, working heavily off of play action. All Miller (or whoever it is) must do is avoid crucial mistakes and deliver the ball where needed - tricker than it sounds at times, but fairly simple. See the field and deliver the ball with accuracy - if any of these QBs can do that it will be an improvement over 2022's passing game. And I think that's all UF needs for an uptick in offensive performance (which already ranked top 50).

SCHEDULE

Utah (away)
McNeese St (home)
Tennessee (home)
Charlotte (home)
Kentucky (away)
Vanderbilt (home)
South Carolina (away)
Georgia
Arkansas (home)
LSU (away)
Missouri (away)
FSU (home)

The path to 8 wins for the Gators isn't easy, but it never is. It's the wrong question - the right question to ask is whether it is achievable. Absolutely. But it also requires some things to change. The defense must see improvement across the board, and the QB must see open receivers and deliver the ball to them on time. If those two things happen, and that's a big if, Florida stands a very good chance of improving on its record. In my opinion, despite some tough road games, the 2023 schedule shakes out a little better than this year did. You could easily make an argument that Florida could start off 4-0 or even 2-2, but I think its more likely to be 3-1. Whether or not its Tennessee or Utah, take your pick, but I think its easy to see us dropping one of those. Utah will NOT be the same team next year, especially offensively, as they will be losing all of their key playmakers. That game is very winnable, but with it being up there in the mountains, you never know. Also, never underestimate Whittingham. Tennessee on the other hand will be without Hendon Hooker, but how different will the offense really look under Joe Milton? If he is able to work out some kinks in the off-season, Tennessee might be just as explosive. For my money though, I don't think this Vol squad will be nearly as lethal as the 2022 version, and I see this being a very close battle in the Swamp going either way. My money is always on the Gators, but I think a 3-1 start is a realistic assessment of the first quarter of the season.

Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Georgia all used to seem like very winnable games. Oh, what a time that was. Now, Kentucky is an annual pain in the ass and we can no longer assume anything. With the recent addition of Devin Leary, they are poised to pose yet another competent challenge for the Gators, especially on the road. I don't like the optics on this one, especially with the Gators still rebuilding - but I think its a far more competitive game than 2022's version, and I don't see our QB hand wrapping them 2 TDs either like last time. Vanderbilt should be a win this time (emphasis on should), though don't underestimate what Clark Lea is doing there. Florida's rebuild will happen much faster than Vanderbilt's, however, so not much worry there. South Carolina is formidable under Shane Beamer because he will acquire talent, but his in-game coaching is still highly questionable. I think it's a toss up as to which of these road games Florida wins, but I simply don't see us losing both. I think Florida goes 2-2 in this stretch, with a definite loss to UGA.

Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, and FSU. An incredibly physical and competitive closing month. Probably the hardest stretch of games to predict in all honesty, but I think Florida matches up well with Arkansas and Missouri and I see us winning both but Arkansas will likely be a brawl. LSU at death valley is a loss as it almost always is for us of late, but never count out the possibility of some magic if this squad can produce some defense. FSU is really where it all comes down to - as in, can Florida wash the vaseline off their hands and actually tackle Jordan Travis? If they can or figure out a way to slow down FSU's speed, I think its a revenge game for the Gators. Unfortunately, I think FSU is a little bit ahead in their rebuild and I expect them to be a better team next year as well. They were likely the 2nd best team in the ACC to close 2022. Norvell is doing a solid job in Tallahassee (where I reside) and I don't see them losing much talent or experience in 2023. I see November as a 2-2 month.

That puts Florida at 7-5 for 2023, with an opportunity to finish 8-5 with a bowl win. And I think this time they do, with fewer opt-outs and a more loyal team due to comradery and culture. For the record, I think this is conservative, and that there is a path to 9-4 - its just hard to predict which of those is the one where we win as an underdog.

My case for this team is that the future is bright, and barring any catastrophes in the way of injuries or what have you, 2023 should be a solid step in the right direction with improved play across all positions. I think its hard to make the case that Florida will be worse at any one position, with perhaps the one exception being LB. Across the board, most of the same talent that produced in 2022 returns, and will be bolstered with extra talent in the recruiting class as well as experience from the portal. There is really no where left to go but up in 2023, and whether its 7 wins or 8, or even 9, I think there is an easy case to be made that Florida is an improved team and that the Billy Napier rebuild is working. But it will require some patience and most importantly perspective - an ounce of each and in a few years, I think we are smiling on the Billy regime.

TLDR (provided by DeepPurpleGator):

2022 was not good, but we got rid of the deadwood and the rebuild is ON. The future is bright, and 2023 should be a solid step in the right direction with improved play across all positions. There is really no where left to go but up in 2023, and whether its 7 wins or 8, or even 9, I think there is an easy case to be made that Florida is an improved team and that the Billy Napier rebuild is working. Be patient!