That might be so. But let’s remember that Kyiv was not supposed to hold past mid-March (roughly two weeks). The Russians were supposed to have completed their conquest of both Ukraine and Moldova no later than the end of April (roughly two months). Then when maneuver warfare failed, Russia was going to play to its strengths and use manpower and massed artillery to deliberately plod its way forward, a process that might add, say, six months and be over by about now. Then, when that campaign design was also underwhelming, it was just a matter of holding existing gains and forcing Ukraine to accept defeat since they would never be able to mount counteroffensive action … until they did. Now we tell ourselves that Ukraine is finished because they cannot survive a winter without electricity. Well, I’ll tell you what, my friend: I’ve learned to stop betting against the Ukrainians. Humans were surviving winters in the region we now call Ukraine for hundreds of thousands of years before electricity.
I'm curious if you had a similar prediction about Ukraine folding up in Feb. 2022? Your narrative basicly writes Putin a blank check. lets see - Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, Syria, Ukraine ................ see any pattern here?
What US Patriot missiles would mean for Ukraine - BBC News Why is Russia so mad about Ukraine getting Patriots? I could have sworn the narrative a few months ago was that the U.S. had no effective countermeasure for Russian missile attacks. If that were so, shouldn’t Russia be pleased that they get to prove their boast and undermine U.S. technology in front of the whole world?
While I support us supporting Ukraine, this is a bad financial deal. Each cruise missile is $4 million. Each Iranian drone is like $20k. Seems like their should be some cheaper SAM systems we could deploy.
Without putting too fine a point on it, I don’t think the drones or even the cruise missiles are what the Patriots are for. We do indeed have better countermeasures for those. And I don’t think Russia would be throwing histrionics about the Patriots if it were about the threat they presented to cruise missiles and drones.
Patriots were like 1-47 vs Scuds and they’re not doing much better in Saudi Arabia. Plus, they require lots of manpower and space, making them fat targets. And the Su-35’s have specific missiles to knock out such as Patriots.
Putin wants Syria so much that with the exception of his Syrian puppets he's willing to kill as many Syrian citizens as he deems necessary to achieve that goal not dissimilar to his strategy in Ukraine, he'd love to take that country and if he could eliminate most of the Ukrainians from the country of Ukraine either by murdering them or forcing them to flea so much the better.
Something to keep in mind: Putin has gutted Syria of its Russian combat power to reinforce (poorly) his strategic main effort in Ukraine. A wise national security advisor would be having the President put additional pressure on the Assad regime right now.
You conveniently omitted a rather significant intervening event. Corrected it for you. US in 2011: “We’re going to overthrow Assad.” US Congress in 2013 - Denial of Obama's request for authorization to use force against Assad Obama sought congressional approval for 2013 military intervention in Syria Putin in 2015: “Nope.” Assad in 2022: “Still here!”
Putin's options according to Tom Friedman. Opinion | Putin Has No Good Way Out, and That Really Scares Me Just my opinion, at this point the best alternative would be to give Putin a face saving off ramp, possibly recognizing Russia's occupation of Crimea. Rather than face humiliation, Vladimir will continue murdering Ukrainian civilians with the next step possibly being the use of chemical munitions against Ukrainian civilians not unlike what his proxy Assad did against Syrian civilians.
Case study in projection. It is the West that is losing, or losing face and desperate. My fear: the neocons seemingly don’t have an off-ramp.
I completely understand the sentiment, I do, but what this is really saying is, Why risk large scale global conflagration when we can mitigate (but not eliminate) that risk by giving away something that isn't even ours to begin with? That rings hollow to me and it ignores the future ramifications of allowing wars of conquest.
Remember the glorious Ukrainian victory that was the so-called liberation of Kherson City ? You do not win a war by re-entering an abandoned area you can't even supply with energy anymore and where you subject yourself to artillery night and day. You win when you defeat the opponents forces. And that was not achieved by Ukraine in Kherson city. On the contrary While Russia is moving around to save its forces Ukraine is holding on, and suffering horrific losses, for PR purposes.
A good read on how one of Russians best military brigade (1400 men) was wiped out by Ukraine. The punishment inflicted on the 200th in those early battles and dozens more that followed remain a point of martial pride for senior Ukrainian officers. “What’s there to know about them?” Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, who later commanded the Kharkiv offensive, said recently in an interview when asked about the 200th. “They run away very well.” How Russia's 200th Brigade was 'completely wiped out'
