Harbaugh Formula = Investigation/Suspension?

I think we're on a 6 year plan for a title, much like what Harbaugh (maybe) and Dabo had to go through.

Until recently, it was shown that a coach could win a title in 3 years, if their bump class was top 5. Meyer, Saban and others were part of that theory. The down side is that if the coach didn't win by year 3, they would not win one, ever.

There have been some recent developments that may alter that 3 year rule. First,
the portal has given programs the ability to fill some roster holes much faster than waiting on recruits to mature. In two years, the 12 team playoff will increase opportunities for programs to play for a Natty. This will benefit us, like it would have benefited Tennessee this season.

I can't see how we can be a national player by year 3, considering the damage done to this program over the last decade plus. We are too far behind Georgia to challenge them in the next year or two.

 

I agree. First we need Gator fans to give Napier 3 years before we can agree to 6. By year 3 he needs to convince fans that he is not like his predecessors Mullen, McElwain, and Muschamp. That is not enough time to win championships, but Napier needs to accomplish something to maintain fan support.

 

By the end of the next season, we should have a pretty good answer to this question.

The influx of the 4 and 5 star talent should be elevating our play by then. If he's unsuccessful in recruiting that level of talent, we'll know then as well.

Ultimately, that is what we brought him in for. What did Kirby Dumb say about outcoaching recruiting? Can't be done.

 

So Vandy has outrecruited us? Can’t wait for the look on that arrogant face of his when Georgia loses to an inferior team

 

I agree with you in general, but not with our track record of hiring. Here’s a list of schools our last several coaches in the big 3 sports were from:

Louisiana
univ of San Francisco
Louisiana Tech
Mississippi state
Colorado State
Texas (as DC, no head experience)
Clemson (as pitching coach, no HC experience)

I would have a different opinion if we would go out and get a proven guy like Kelly or Lincoln Riley (like LSU and USC did). But if we fire a coach, we’re going to the Sun Belt, the Mountain West, or Conference USA for the next 37 year-old “up and comer”. I’m so damn sick of that game. Just give the coach 6 years and save some buyout money if we’re gonna keep doing this crap.

 

Urbs fizzled shortly after having smoked the Gumps two out of three games that mattered. The second time with a third-string QB. What could have been if he had a sturdier constitution.

 

Your 10 year estimate may be too light based on what the top teams have done since 2010. The program Napier took over was the worst in my memory, much, much worse than what Pell took over.

 

People forget that 2021 Michigan and OSU got boatraced back to the house when they played good teams. They beat nobody outside of the "Big" 10. Both would likely have been 8-4 in the SEC. Michigan lost 11-34 to UGA but almost all their production was garbage time. 6-7 Florida lost 7-34 in comparison. Florida had more yards of total offense, more first downs, more time of possession and held UGA to less offense by 200 yards than Michigan did. They aren't that good.

2022 OSU and Michigan will have the same problem.

Losing every time you play a ranked out of conference team isn't tolerated by SEC fan bases.

 

I would argue that in December 2021 this program was about as broken as it was when Pell took over in 1979, and that it was a miracle that Napier got this team to 6-6.

 

Agree, because I believe that it was worse than 1979. Pell inherited some great talent like Collinsworth, Brantley, Little, Fisher, and Young.

Napier inherited no one of that caliber.
I wish that we could have won a couple more than 6, but I also recognize that it could have been a lot worse.

Here’s to hoping that Napier turns things around like Pell did.

 

I was a high school freshman when we went winless in 1979. I remember it well.
I was at 44-0 in 1982, froze my butt off too. We crashed the dorms at JU so we
wouldn't freeze in our cars and were nearly arrested by JU PD. Those were the days.

I'd say 10% of the active posters have any understanding of what it was like then.

That's what made 27-0 so incredible.

Here we are, back where we started from. Everything that was done to get us to the
heights has been undone by neglect, arrogance and stupidity.

 

Take a look at who Pell inherited for QB when you're talking talent. Not even close to what Napier inherited. I was there, Pell had far less talent to work with, hence 0-10-1 in 1979. He started a true freshman, Wayne Peace at QB in 1980 to get things back on the right track. He also didnt have the benefit of the portal. Huge difference.

 

He didn’t start Peace. He started Bob Hewko. But Bob got hurt 3-4 games in.

I will grant you that Napier has a better QB situation, but who is Napier’s Collinsworth. Who is Napier’s Scott Brantley. Who is Napier’s David Little or Robin Fisher?

 

Most coaches we've had have crashed and burned. Muschamp bounced back a little in 2014, but it was clear he just didn't have a sustainable long-term system at that point and it was unlikely he was ever going to figure that out. After years have passed, that guess looks like it was correct.

McElwain crashed and burned badly in 2017 and had beef with the administration.

Mullen crashed and burned in 2021 and looked like he checked out, so he was only going to get worse.

What's strange is Zook seems like the guy with the highest floor of any of the "bad hires" since 1990. He was fired after only 3 seasons, but he had all of the talent in the world and he never got past 8 wins.

Jim Harbaugh has kept Michigan extremely competitive with the exception of the COVID year and he was given more rope because he's a Michigan alum who loves the school.

 

Any program who fires a coach with that record just because they lost to their arch rival two years in a row deserves whatever sports misery goes their way.

 

Harbaugh was given more rope because he took a considerable pay cut and completely revamped his staff and strategy. If he had pushed back, he would have been gone.

 

Some other posters have mentioned this, but a coach needs at least one of two things to earn patience beyond 4 years:
1. Consistently great recruiting
2. A willingness to learn from mistakes and change

Head Coaches implement systems in programs that create this overarching program identity. Sometimes it's incredibly obvious that the system isn't working and that the coach won't change. If both of those statements are true, then it's reasonable to fire the Head Coach, even after only 3-4 years.

 

+

Fine, since you are digging trying to justify, Hewko actually had no starting experience either and was also a freshman when he started in Pell's second year, 1980. He wasn't a Dickey holdover.

"Better QB situation", c'mon, that's quite the understatement. No disrespect to Dr O, but he wasnt an NFL draft pick, not even close.
Yea, Collinsworth was on the roster but there was no one to get him the ball.

Brantley was hurt early in '79 and didnt really contribute to the Pell era. Look at the rest of the 79 roster. If it was that good, Pell must have really sucked as a coach not to win one game. (and we know he didnt suck).

 

I would add “Beat our rivals most of the time, especially at home” to that list too.

 

I think it's important to understand that when we're comparing 1979 to 2022, we're talking about what rock bottom is today.

6-6 to this program and its fans in 2022 is equivalent to what 0-10-1 was to the program in 1979.

The competitive environment is also drastically different, so the climb back from 6 wins to championship contender is similar to what it would be to transform from being a winless team to one that is .500.