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First Year Coach Gator Coach Win Loss Records

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by cedarkey_gator1, Nov 26, 2022.

  1. gator10

    gator10 GC Legend

    603
    311
    1,868
    Nov 23, 2015
    Gators would probably have a similar record to USC playing in the PAC-10. We beat Utah for sakes and they are in the championship. USC will likely get hammered in the playoffs. The teams out west are just not near as good.
     
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  2. Context matters. If we believe what Urban Meyer said about the program being broken in 2009 or 2010, then we can "excuse" Napier for not waving a magic wand in one year and fixing 12-13 years of stagnation and regression in all phases of the program--not just wins and losses. The last coach to face a rebuild after a decade of subpar program performance was Charley Pell and he went 0-10-1 in year 1. It took Pell 6 years to bring a championship* (note the asterisk) to Florida.

    Looking at the preseason, most models had Florida going 6-6. The ESPN FPI model predicted us to be 6-6 (3-5), which turned out to be spot on. The only surprise was swapping results between Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. Napier performed as expected in year 1 based on all the contributing factors: a decade+ of subpar/inconsistent recruiting, a decade+ of neglect with facilities, a decade+ of subpar coaching, and recent improvements around the SEC--especially the SEC East.

    It is apparent Napier is not as magical as Steve Spurrier, but that is a high standard that only one other coach has met, Urban Meyer. At the same time, Meyer is partially responsible for breaking the program and making it hard for anyone not in the same tier as Steve Spurrier and "good Urban Meyer". I doubt any coach available in November 2021 would have taken the 2022 Gators to an 8-4 record. Maybe Brian Kelly could have taken the Gators to 8 or 9 wins which would have supported the theory that Florida should only be coached by an older coach who has been in the national championship discussion.
    2022 FPI Models vs Actual.png
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2022
  3. 62gator

    62gator GC Hall of Fame

    11,585
    4,353
    3,303
    Dec 4, 2007
    Tampa, FL
    Whoa! 11-1, no chance of that, none what so ever, imho. We lost to lowly Vanderbilt for god’s sake. Damn near lost to a horrible USF team, probably should’ve. We beat Utah on a freakish INT play in the end zone, very late. They had first and goal at the 6 with 30sec to go, more times than not they would’ve scored. It was a big win, in no way does it mean UF would replace them in their conferences championship game though. Not sure how that game goes today?
     
  4. gator10

    gator10 GC Legend

    603
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    1,868
    Nov 23, 2015
    Their schedule is extremely weak. They don’t play near an SEC type schedule where every team you play has great athletes. Vandy would be middle of the pack in the pac 10. Notre dame is the only decent team they played prior to the championship. Watch what happens when they get matched up with UGA. I would put us at 10-2 in the pac 10 and I picked us to go 7-5 this year so it’s not because I’m a gator homer.
     
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  5. traubgator

    traubgator GC Hall of Fame

    1,471
    181
    198
    Apr 8, 2007
    Every road game in the SEC is brutal - no gimmies.
    Even for some like us, playing at Vandy isn't easy, boring atmosphere with no energy and often our coldest game of the season.

    Shocked at the espn predictor above. I still don't get how we can beat an above average utah team, and then look terrible with the same players against kentucky and vandy.
    South Carolina isn't a bad football team and we literally should have beaten them 60-6. If we have enough talent to beat utah and south carolina, we have enough talent to beat kentucky and vandy. We are just lucky Texas A&M was utter dog trash or the sky would be falling even worse.

    I wish I could say opening at Utah will set the tone next year, but we no that isn't the case. We should go into the UGA game next year with only 1 loss max.
     
  6. g8trdoc

    g8trdoc Premium Member

    3,616
    506
    383
    Apr 3, 2007
    He’s a program manager with a slow burn until proven otherwise. I don’t think he will wow you with scheme. I’ll admit that other that Corey Raymond I was underwhelmed with his coaching hires. I hope we can catch a good QB transfer and make this process less painful.
     
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  7. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

    15,937
    13,349
    1,853
    Apr 8, 2007
    Yep, reminds me of the Pell rebuild without the 0 -10-1 part. We got 6-6 instead.
     
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  8. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

    16,785
    1,547
    1,393
    Aug 21, 2007
    Doesn't remind me of the Pell rebuild at all. More talent and the portal enables quick fixes. Also, Pell didn't inherit a future NFL draft pick at QB. ;)