I don't disagree that he's gone. I don't disagree that an NFL organization will take a risk with him. But I don't think he'll be given a ton of time as a 1st round pick. And I think that if he's selected in the 1st round it's going to further minimize the importance of success at the collegiate level. Because I done broke out the spreadsheet. In the last 11 years of drafts, 34 QBs were taken. AR would be dead last in TDs, TD:INT, passing yardage and total yardage - and by a large margin. Only Daniel Jones bested (worsted?) him in QB rating. Against the mean draft pick, he's short 5,222 passing yards, 44 passing TDs while only nearing the average on INTs and has a 24 point lower QB rating. Based on college performance, he would be the worst QB picked in the 1st round since 2012 (as far as I felt like looking back).
Josh Allen was an absolute statistical anomaly. Ive never seen anything like what he did. These GMs who think they're going to find another JA by drafting unprepared, high ceiling, low floor guys are in for a serious reality check.
The stats definitely say no. But a team near the bottom of the first with a solid veteran QB may take a chance on the ridiculous athleticism. We'll find out soon enough.
AR down to #24 on this one. O’Cyrus moving up though. 2023 NFL Mock Draft: QB picture remains in flux; Will Levis out of top 5; Texans, Panthers, Colts seek passers
When I watched Josh Allen during his rookie season, I shook my head and said he'll never make it. Shows what I know.
Regardless of all his passing numbers, QB ratings or raw potential if there is a team willing to draft him in the 1st round I think it is a no brainer on AR's part to declare! I don't pay much attention to money in sport but from what I understand he would be pretty much set for life financially even if he flops, please correct me if I am wrong!
The "day" is just the first day players can enter their name into the portal. It is open for 45 days for players to input their names, then closes again. The player can transfer at any time after his name is in the portal even after the portal is closed for new names. There is another period where players can enter their name in the spring. My guess is most of the movement will likely happen after bowl season but there will be a big addition of names on 5 DEC for sure.
I see your point. If you are correct, your concerns are unwarranted. It’s a circular conundrum. AR’s not ready, he’s drafted 1st round, he’s gonna affect how teams draft moving forward. Wait…if he sucks in the NFL like you envision, why would it not be a cautionary tale for other teams? Relax your stance, my man is my advice. Your on weak ground.
Not gonna lie, I felt like he was playing 'scared to fail' this whole season. In other words, I felt like he was worried about not playing well enough to go pro. Just my opinion, but his demeanor during games was just off to me. It felt like he wasnt really playing for the Gators, but playing not to mess up his future NFL draft pick or somethimg
They may, but I will always question why. Wouldn’t Tom Brady be much happier right now if the Bucs drafted an OL or some other help rather than trask? Will drafting trey lance ever pan out for the niners? if you have a team that can win now, is it really wise to invest in the future?
Same impression I got. Totally different from his demeanor when he first made a couple of those appearances last year, when he was hurdling and just seemed hell bent on running people over
The general rule of thumb in the NFL is unless you're picking in the top 5, you are pretty much always drafting for the future. If you are in Win-Now mode, you use Free Agency or Trade players/picks
Not necessarily. Yes first round money is good. Last year's 1st round #10 pick signed for $20M for 4 years. As you go later in the first round, the numbers decrease, but still worth north of $10m for 4 years. That is more than I will ever make over 40+ years of working. But it's not as much as it sounds. Unlike me, these players are taxed at the highest rate. Then you have state taxes, agent fees, and other items. I think (don't know) they bring home about half of their contract. Maybe slightly less. Still- that's a lot.... But as you say, if they bomb it has to last the rest of their life. If these guys invested wisely, lived intelligently if not frugally, and had good advisors no doubt it would last their lifetime. BUT- that doesn't happen as much as it should. What happens many times is they get a bunch of money at once for their signing bonus, shower it on family members and other friends, and spend like the money will be there forever. And too often the money is gone by the time they are 30. If not earlier. So you wonder if he would set for life. Too many times, that answer is no. They can't even make it to 30. That's why so many NFL players go bankrupt. The real NFL money is in the 2nd contract. If a player is worth it their salaries can double or triple in that 5th year. It's really worth it to think long-term and get to that 2nd contract, but no one thinks about that with the thrill of a bunch of money right around the corner. You can even see that on this thread, and we don't have any AR family members on here!! (I don't think.)
Heisman winners have at least proven themselves to be elite college players. This is much different, AR wasn’t even in the discussion. He will be drafted mostly on potential.
AR in my opinion would be the biggest surprise in the history of football if he became a top 5 pocket passer in his future. He’s a great kid and I like him but I just don’t see him becoming the next Mahomes. If some nfl guru sees that, he’s a genius if correct
