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AR third highest P5 graded QB last week (by 'PFF College' on Twitter)

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by Matthanuf06, Nov 21, 2022.

  1. tommyvee

    tommyvee VIP Member

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    I meant exactly that. If AR extended a few of those plays with his feet, we win the game going away. I don’t care what his PFF is nor should anyone which was my response to the OP. We lost the game and it’s on the coaching staff first and on the players starting with AR second.
     
  2. GatorLuke

    GatorLuke GC Hall of Fame

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    Ok your 1st reply to me said no one said AR lost the game, but you are saying if he ran more (few more times) we would have won, which is to say, we lost because of AR. I don’t agree because Vandy executed their game plan to perfection to stop the run, make AR pass and our Oline played below average. If we were getting stuffed on running plays, how does him keeping a few zone reads mean we would have won? It doesn’t. It means you pass more which we did quite well. I also don’t care about his PFF ranking especially when we lose. The players around AR sucked badly that game and no one talks about how poorly they played, just AR. The game was cursed from the get go and we don’t have the team to overcome a cursed game. I believe Napes is building that type of team and we will be there in 23 or 24.
     
  3. tommyvee

    tommyvee VIP Member

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    All fine points, but AR didn't lose the game. We needed AR to win the game for us (the plays were there all day long from my vantage point). If he gave it his all, that's one thing. I didn't feel like he did for whatever reason.
     
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  4. GatorLuke

    GatorLuke GC Hall of Fame

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    I feel ya. Just total frustration all the way around. Hope we somehow pull off the upset Friday!!! Go Gators.
     
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  5. Distant Gator

    Distant Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    I said it before but perhaps you missed it.
    Watch our first drive. We had a first and 10 on the VU 11.
    AR handed off for a run up the middle. The left DE bit badly on that run.
    AR could have easily pulled it and almost walked into the end zone for a TD.
    Next play- same thing. Even Stinchcomb mentioned it, and they usually don't criticize individual choices.

    So with that ONE play, we gain 3-4 points. That changes the game.
    Do we win? I have no idea. It's all theoretical after that point.

    But it's not so crazy to say that AR should have pulled it and run for a TD, and our odds go up if we score a TD there.

    Now- again, did AR lose the game? IMO he was the best player on the field so no.
    We lost despite AR, not because of him. But should he have run more. That's a yes.
     
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  6. WC53

    WC53 GC Hall of Fame

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    QB’s always get the glory or the ire. It is the nature of the position. Now with NIL of a million, folks even expect more.
    This was a total team failure. The comments about special team by committee should reinforce that. ;)
     
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  7. GatorLuke

    GatorLuke GC Hall of Fame

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    Nobody is saying he did not miss any reads. Heck, he has missed zone reads all year. The Kentucky game was a game he played so poorly running/passing/decision making, it didn’t matter what anybody else was doing. Every quarterback in college football misses reads every game. Missing a few reads and running more are not equal. If we were not running the ball well, which we weren’t and Vandy was playing outstanding assignment defense against the run, throwing the ball is what we had to do and it was enough to win the game. If we are naming players, we should be naming Johnson for his drop walk-in touchdown, Bowman for his drops and tipped int, Marshall for his Muffed punt for a TD, missed pick 6 (Marshall or Wislon I think), and the defense for keeping all the drives alive with penalties. AR is getting the blame for a complete team loss because he missed a few zone reads. It was a team loss and it should be viewed as much. Pointing fingers at a player in this instance is ridiculous. Anyway, onward we go. All my Nole friends are talking quite a bit of smack so I hope we get out of there Friday with a W. Go Gators.
     
  8. Regardless if you look at PFF or EPA or any advanced metric, Anthony Richardson is trending upwards.
    EPA:
    1. Bo Nix (+160, trending up)
    2. CJ Stroud (+120, trending up)
    3. Hendon Hooker (+120, leveling off...injured)
    4. Anthony Richardson (+50, trending up)
    5. Bryce Young (+50, trending down)
    6. Tanner McKee (-50, trending down)
    7. Cameron Ward (+10, trending down)
    8. Sam Hartman (+50, leveling off)
    9. Will Levis (0, trending down)


    The NFL draft board looks like this for 2023:
    Player | PFF Grade | QBR
    Bryce Young | 90.7 (#16) | 80.3 (#11)
    Will Levis | 68.4 (#189) | 58.8 (#63)
    CJ Stroud | 82.1 (#65) | 89.7 (#1)
    Tanner McKee 73.7 (#138) | 50.5 (#80)
    Hendon Hooker | 90.0 (#10) | 89.6 (#2)
    Anthony Richardson | 76.5 (#154) {84.5 after week 4, #15} | 71.7 (#32) {78.1 after week 4, #16}

    In terms of QB PFF rating this puts Richardson at #3 or #4 before his raw physical numbers tip the scale in the NFL Combine. Some analysts predict Will Levis will also put up good NFL Combine numbers and maneuver up the draft board.
    1. Hendon Hooker (injured, torn ACL)
    2. Bryce Young
    3. CJ Stroud
    4. Anthony Richardson
    5. Tanner McKee
    6. Will Levis

    Of course, statistics sometimes need to be explained with context. Richardson is 2-3 when his passer rating is 130 or above (not counting EWU's 327.0 and rounding up Utah's 129.6), and 3-2 when his passer rating is 120 or below--which is counterintuitive. Even if you constrain the statistics to the last 6 or 7 games, Richardson appears to have capped out at an average passer rating of 134 with glimpses of ratings near 160. Using QBR, which accounts for his legs, Richardson's stock is rising into the top 5. Richardson wins games with his arm and his legs if and only if the defense holds up.

    Looking at the numbers, the outcome of the Vanderbilt game is baffling. Predicting the outcome of the FSU game is a crapshoot. Determining whether he should enter the NFL draft is pure conjecture. Anthony Richardson is a riddle wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2022
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  9. Distant Gator

    Distant Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Sorry I should have also said that AR was the best player on the field, and the dropped passes were much more of a factor in the loss than his missed reads.
    Definitely a team loss.
    Agree on the players you named. (Wilson had the dropped pick 6, but Johnson's drop on the first drive was far worse.)
     
  10. tommyvee

    tommyvee VIP Member

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    I get your point and I agree with you. BUT…this thread isn’t about those other players. This thread is about PFF and how AR is #3 and it insinuates that he did everything he could to put the team on his back to will us to within 7 points. I disagree with that narrative and would venture to say he was a big part of the loss.

    We didn’t lose because of AR’s play. We lost with AR’s play…or if you prefer, we lost and then there’s AR’s play.
     
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  11. I agree with this statement:
    The Vanderbilt game played out like an NFL audition for Anthony Richardson with the Commodores playing to win instead of serving as a backdrop to the audition. Not to name any athletes other than the one in the topic of this thread, but one receiver had 2 or 3 drops or mishandles of the ball because Richardson does not throw a catchable ball. He can make any throw that an NFL scout wants him to make, but it takes a high-level receiver to adjust to some of the passes and Florida does not have those receivers. Pearsall probably has the best hands and in past games he had problems adjusting his route or maneuvering his hands to pull in the pass from AR.

    Any advanced metric I can think of shows that Anthony Richardson cannot put the team on his back and win crucial games, at least not at a level consistent with the expectations of an athlete who looks to be genetically engineered to play QB. The advanced metrics do favor him as a guy can win the battle of statistics, at least in the latter part of the season. The PFF, FPI, FEI, QBR, etc show that he is blossoming into one of the top 5 QBs for the 2023 NFL draft. He would need another year in Napier's system to learn how to win games by carrying the offense and defense on his back. By "carry the defense" I mean not turning the ball over via INT, fumble, or downs and giving the defense time to rest and not putting the defense in a situation where they have to get a turnover to negate one of his turnovers.
     
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  12. PlantationGator

    PlantationGator Junior

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    Unfortunately, Richardson has the leadership abilities of a
    wet blanket.
     
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  13. Yep. The truth hurts. He may be an amazing athlete, but he has not developed leadership skills. Leaders are made, not born, and AR has been treated as a freak show of raw talent and not shaped as a leader of tomorrow.
     
  14. ETGator

    ETGator Long-Time Gator Stuck In East Tennessee Moderator VIP Member

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    I'm not disagreeing . . . but consider the playbook might be smaller to much smaller for a number of reasons besides Coach Napier's lack of imagination or ability.
     
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  15. Wanne15

    Wanne15 GC Hall of Fame

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    Everything you said is spot on bur the qb gets credit either way. He has more impact as he is the qb.