I saw Gaetz making a BS argument about oversight. On its face, I agree with him. Any time our country grants foreign aid, military or otherwise, we have a right and duty to follow that money to its end user. And I think we should have personnel on the ground in supervising our material aid’s movement through the Ukrainian supply chain. The Ukrainians would not likely object. And the military would be falling over itself to volunteer for duty in Ukraine. So no problem on either of those fronts. But here’s the reality: The moment the Administration proposed to do exactly that (I wish they would), he and MTG would cry foul and say Biden was trying to directly involve us in the war and endanger American personnel. So I don’t want to hear any more BS arguments about lack of oversight if more oversight would not actually satisfy him.
EIther the FSB and oligarchs removes Putin and ban together to dismantle/defund Wagner or the country is headed for a real mess. Hopefullly their greed and self preservation lead them to retire Putin and agree to Ukraine terms to vacate Ukraine, including Crimea. As Russia’s war fails, domestic turmoil is intensifying (msn.com) Military failure in Ukraine is undermining the stability of the Russian state. The Kremlin has tried to disguise its war losses to prevent negative domestic reactions, but the reality of failure is becoming increasingly obvious, most recently in the retreat from Kherson soon after the region was constitutionally incorporated in the Russian Federation. Russia’s convulsions are evident in high-level criticisms of state policy, purges in the military, political, and economic structures, conflicts within the security institutions, resistance to mobilization and mounting regional unrest. Internal Russian criticisms over the planning and conduct of the war have mushroomed despite strict state censorship. The Military Review website, which is close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, has published devastating attacks on the condition of Russia’s armed forces. Even senior former military commanders have lambasted the operation. General Leonid Ivachov, a prestigious figure in the Soviet General Staff, has denounced the policy of deploying various private formations alongside the regular army. Ivashov even stated that “Russia will cease to exist” if it continues the war by becoming isolated and destitute. Igor Girkin, the former “minister of defense” of the Moscow-created Donetsk People’s Republic, has asserted that a classic revolutionary situation is brewing in. Russia. Moscow is waging an increasingly unpopular imperialist war, the battle front is collapsing and the country’s leaders are disconnected from reality. According to Girkin, Putin is kept in power to prevent elite battles that would precipitate Russia’s disintegration. Such criticisms have been amplified by hardline military bloggers who openly attack Russian commanders for their mediocrity and cowardice.
Interesting read from someone who grew up in Russia. It seems that being forced to serve has always been a great fear as the older russian soldiers have always abused the younger ones. It is no wonder that the army is so incapable if that is true. 4 paragraph rule limits what I can paste but whole article is a good read. Vladimir Putin isn’t just losing in Ukraine — he’s set Russia’s economy back 40 years (msn.com) This war has set the Russian economy back 40 years. On the surface Russia today looks very different from the Russia of the 1980s that I remember. This Russia has beautiful, modern supermarkets which still, to my surprise, are full of food. Yet due to sanctions and the voluntary withdrawal from Russia of Western firms, Russia will eventually be frozen in time. I’m thinking of Cuba when I say this. Cuba looks today the same way it did in 1959 when Castro came to power and the West imposed a trade embargo. Yes, Russians will miss McDonald’s and Coca Cola, but that is not such a great loss. More painful is the loss of advanced technology — semiconductors, software, complex manufacturing. Russia has little of this. Today you cannot build a car or washing machine without semiconductors. This is why Russian auto production is down by half since the war started and washing machine production has dropped from 600,000 units a month to 100,000. A wild card here is China. China has some technologies that Russia needs, such as oil drilling equipment and spare parts for planes. Will China risk sanctions from the U.S. and Europe by exporting such things to Russia? I don’t know. After Visa and Mastercard cut off Russia from their networks, basically preventing Russians from using rubles outside of Russia, China stopped onboarding Russians to their own credit card network. Sanctions have crippled Russia’s ability to produce enough weapons to fight its war. Moreover, Russia needs every weapon it can get to replace what it has lost. Russia has already resorted to using tanks from the 1970s. Finally, this war has been a sad infomercial for Russian weapons. India used to import half of its weapons from Russia. Now, the U.S. and Europe will likely become the sole providers of weapons to India – another tailwind for defense contractors. After the war is over, Russia will be selling its weapons to rogue regimes such as Iran and North Korea, but the market for its weapons has shrunk considerably since February.
not sure it has to be a binary choice. You can have an IG and oversight of funds and weapons, but also not have Americans directly involved in country. I recognize it’s a fine line, but my personal Opinion, and yes it’s an opinion, is this conflict has shown the Russians to be no threat to anyone more than 50 miles max from their border and absolutely no threat to the US. And again my opinion, not a fight worth a single US service member’s life or limb. As far as weapons, sure. Send them, but damn sure replenish those stockpiles as they go out
I was about to hit disagree, but you have me curious. What method do you propose for oversight without direct supervision of U.S. logistical personnel on the ground in Ukraine?
So it’s down to hope ... “The Russians have a huge army and impressive weapons. We also underestimated the number of missiles Russia has. It turned out the volume of missiles it has is very large and it is not entirely clear when it will run out. However, the outcome of a military conflict is not decided my military capabilities, but why which side has the better cause.” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin
Fair question. Although I attended fisher school, that was a long time ago and I’m not an audit or logistic expert. I do imagine there is available technology And very capable systems and personnel to monitor the incredible amounts of cash.
To a certain degree that is probably true. But I think you need trusted agents on the ground to make sure the munitions are getting to the tactical level and are not being sold off between the Polish border and the Front. I am reasonably certain that most of it is going where it is supposed to based on the battlefield success of the Ukrainians, but there is always some graft we could reduce by watching the cargo. Yes, there would be some risk to our volunteers, but would mitigate that by only assisting with the supply chain up to, say, 30 kilometers of the Front. Deeper than that, the only significant threat to our forces is cruise missiles, and that gives us more motivation to assist the Ukrainians with that kind of defense.
If I can track my luggage across the globe with a $20 airtag, why can't each crate of munitions be tracked with a similar tracking beacon?
You can track the crate easily enough. Tell me what method keeps a corrupt group from emptying every tenth crate in L’viv, selling the contents on the black market, and sending the empty crate (tracker intact) to the front.
Even that would still be a pretty good success rate (90%). According to the United Nations around the time of the Iraq War, anything over 15% of something going to its intended use or recipients is a success.
You might be right, but I was just throwing out 10% randomly, not citing estimated losses to corruption. The best way of doing this would be to handle the supply chain ourselves and move it directly to brigade-sized units based on requirements we have coordinated with the Ukrainian MoD. Next best would be to coordinate at the national level, inventory in Poland before handing it to Ukraine at the border, let them move it to end users, and our verification personnel inventory it again before it gets handed to tactical units. Worst is what we’re doing now, and gives all of the political enemies of support to Ukraine an unnecessary excuse to oppose.
then build the tracking device into the weapon. Not guns but with the cost of each smart weapon or missile, adding a $20 airtag equivalent to each would seem to be a no brainer. That and a small EMP that could be activated to fry the electronics if the weapon ends up somewhere it shouldn't be
My first thought is tracking each munition that way would be prohibitively expensive, especially given the rate of consumption in this war.
why? like I said, a $20 airtag works within a few meters. You don't need something to survive the battlefield, just something to track it until it gets there. In my industry, we have the same stupid question. We pay $20k plus for a full station survey tool that can pinpoint a 3d location using 7 satellites to within .05' but if it is stolen, the company that manufactures them has no way of tracking them or shutting them down. We had survey trucks broken into and lost 4 of them. In Dade county, surveyors have had them taken at gunpoint. It seems that the manufacturers don't want to help with the problem because each one stolen results in another automatic sell. We can track and neutralize a $1000 Iphone but not a $20k survey instrument or a $10k smart weapon. What is the cost of each rocket, manpad, smart artillery shell. I have to assume it is much more than the iphone
Just so no one accuses me of never posting Russian good news stories, they are getting better at retreating: Russia’s retreat from Kherson better organized than previous ones - British intelligence
