Our best lineup

I think out “best” lineup may truly be that.

 

Well, it was exceptionally effective for long stretches in the FSU game. But there were lots of reasons for that (pressure defense, playing from behind, cold FSU, advantageous matchups). Is the sample size sufficient yet for that metric to be meaningful? What would it look like without that second half run against FSU?

 

Yep. It’s a fascinating site. I could waste too much time there. I think we will have more representative data after the three games against decent teams this week.

 

Way too early to establish a best anything beyond Castleton, Lofton and probably Richard. The rest will come down to Golden assessing matchup and who is playing well on a particular night.

There are six other guys (the 10 other guys that are playing minus Jitoboh, who I doubt will ever get starters minutes barring a Castleton injury)

This leaves Felder and Fudge, who will take most of the "4" minutes and Bonham/Jones, who will command "2" and occasional '1" minutes along with the two young guys, who I suspect will be very erratic this season.

Billy D used to say that the most improvement is between the freshman and sophomore seasons and the expectation was that Reeves was going to be a double figure scorer this year.

It annoys me to no end when multiple broadcasters suggested that Kugel needs to play because he is a special talent. How much these guys play is ultimately how well they practice and play

 

Bonham a 2, who'da thunk? Right now, I see what we thought we had with Glover (aka, Mighty Mouse!). He is a pest on defense, is it good enough? Lofton seems to be The Man this year. I did not say the most talented (we all know who this is), just that how the team works depends on his talents that game. A really good PG to run things, again, who'da thunk it? I guess Mike White didn't.

Richard to me is McKissic 2.0, definitely an X-factor because the other pieces appear to be non-existent. Which leads me to brain fart 1 until further notice: Felder. He is a VERY poor man's Duruji. The game where he is the X-factor will be the first. If he does not show up consistently in and around the paint, we are going to have some real problems this year. The only other possibility, and I don't see this working overall, is to put CC at the 4 and JJ at the 5. We just don't have enough depth to give this a real run.

Fudge is a 3 without enough talent (or perhaps experience) to guard the 3. Until further notice, he feels like Devin Robinson: damn interesting athleticism but a REALLY cranky game. Can he grow into a decent/good 4 in college? That is probably THE $64k question.

And now to too-early brain fart 2 (and obviously 3): Reeves and Kugel. Under White, too many players looked slow and most of us believed it was because he made the game too complicated. Reeves seems to have forgotten what he was doing at the end of last year, and his benching the past two games is a testament to it. Kugel isn't on the radar until he gets more used to the speed of college ball. It is what it is.

Now to what has to be considered "aw crap!" (ie, one step behind a brain fart): Jones. I now consider him like I do with too many players: they can do well at one speed and do little in a slightly faster speed. The "AC" is that we HAVE to rely on him to give our PG a rest. I would LOVE to be proven wrong, but it looks like we are seeing his ceiling. You are NOT a shooter if you brick shots like he does.

I would add only one more brain fart (although I give him a pass): Golden. I think this team has a glaring weakness in reliable 3-shooting, and he should have known it based on our history the past two years. The pass is that he got some pieces and he can't do everything in the first year. It is what it is.

Question to ponder: could it be plausible that, based on the dynamics of any particular game, we see Klatsky in the game in earnest for no other reason than to be as effective as he can on defense but to hang out on the 3-line to shoot the 3?

 

Good stuff.

Glad we have a month to see if Reeves, Felder, Kugel or Fudge are going to kick it into another gear.

And we need a deadeye shooter amongst the 2s I think it might be Richard when he settles in.

If not we will be ordinary even if CC and Lofton are special.

 

I trust CTG to adjust the lineup according to what the opponent is throwing at us. Players will need to learn to set aside their egos when they don't get the minutes or starts they think they deserve. So I expect our starting 5 against Xavier will be the same as it has been, even though Reeves and Kugel sat and watched the 2nd half vs FSU. They're both too good not to play.

Before the season, when asked about using analytics to select his combinations, Coach did say that it would take at least 5 or 6 games to have a sample size large enough to start using the data for that. We're 4 games in now, not counting the Miami and JU scrimmages. A good thing, I think, is that we've played teams with varying styles.

As to the Klatsky question, I think we will see him get mop-up duty in blowouts, but I also think we'll see him a few times when we REALLY need a 3 in the last few seconds of the first half or at the end. Flood the floor with 3-point marksmen.

 

Re: Felder above, he has the best rebound rate in our rotation, even better than CC’s. For a team that wants to be better in that department, I think his play is absolutely crucial. He won’t be a double digit scorer or a legit perimeter threat, but we need his strength and physicality on the glass and as the defensive end. He isn’t as athletic as Duriji, but brings more to the table as a glue guy.

 

On Reeves and Kugel, I think that is where our season hinges. We know what we have from just about everybody but those two. Kugel was always sort of a bonus. If he balled out as a freshman, that was never expected, but could definitely put us over the top. Who couldn't use a 6'5" athletic freak who is unselfish with the ball and can defend multiple positions?

Reeves is more concerning. Statistically speaking, he has been something of an anomaly. He is shooting well from the arc (47% on 4 shots per game), but is only hitting 30% on 2s and 57% from the line. His rebound rate has been terrible for a guy his size (the worst of anyone in the rotation). His turnover rate is low, but he also hasn't made many shots for others. IMO, he absolutely has to get going. He is the best pure scorer on this team, and his length, athleticism, and shot make him the most difficult guy on this team to guard (at least in the sense that you can scheme to take away a big like Castleton by denying post entries or doubling on the catch or dribble). If Reeves doesn't settle in and gain some confidence, I think our upside this season is immensely more limited.

It is also worth keeping in mind the four analytics Golden looks at most, both from a team and an individual perspective: effective fg%, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, and free throw rate. By those measures, Castleton (obviously), Richard, and Bonham have all been terrific. The best in terms of eff fg% are Jitoboh, Richard, CC, and Reeves; in turnover %, Reeves, Richard, and Lofton; offensive rebound %, Felder, Richard, Fudge, and CC (with Bonham good for a little); and ft rate, Bonham, Kugel, Jones, and Jitoboh. Still a small sample size, but worth tracking those throughout the tournament this week.