GNFP USC Offense

• James' new (well, not NEW) recent gear is sa-weet. Get you one of those Gator jackets!
• Start off with what is apparently a USC film trend with the jet sweep against the dropping S (Bama does this same thing, and to my knowledge they are the ones who made this popular.)
• James expounds a bit on AR's NFL outlook. I haven't listened yet, but this is the type of thing he probably goes into much more detail in on the podcast. Basically says that AR obviously has NFL ceiling, but some trouble spots remain and he's not there yet. Especially the 55% completion percentage. But also mentions Lamar Jackson as a similar guy, and LJ might be good one day (I keed, he's already an MVP.) But he mentions that completion percentage is the best indicator of NFL success and MAYBE a reason LJ runs into trouble in the playoffs. AR needs better ball placement, bottom line. Also, he SHOULDN'T be there yet -- he's right on schedule.
• AR misses an easy throw early, just inaccurate.
• James is big on "leveling" -- what does my opponent WANT me to do? Then don't do that.
• Jet sweep again, USC has adapted, but AR keeps it this time and chunks over-correcting D.
• AR gets away with a pick. All aspects of AR were nice except for the ball placement. Lots of open space to be had, AR had a rough game placing the ball.
• Douglass wracking up good plays on film every week.
• AR comes back with an NFL dart on an out-route.
• BN run game is truly exceptional, best in college football. Will only get better as talent improves.
• Back to 12 on GL and struggle. AR sweep sees ETN get a piece of THREE defenders, and Odom makes a nice block, AR bulls it in.
• Stubborn roll-out game is also still going. Defender just bee-lines AR. But AR chumps him to save a disaster, but the timing is off and the throw is low.
• Split zone is devastating. H back will often show the block and run a route. Zanders gets loose for a nice completion.
• Empty. A lot more spread since Zip went out. AR at his best here. AR subtlely squares a shoulder to hold CB low, then throws perfect corner to Douglass on a smash concept. AR manipulated a chunk here.
• Quick game is coming along. No PA, zero drop, AR puts it on WR with a S 15 yards off, six free yards with basically a long handoff.
• "12" personnel, but one of the TE's is Pearsall, so not really. Two different OL get beat fast, but AR creates a little room working the pocket, hits RP for the TD. Actually not a great throw, but good enough and RP works it out. James says (as he often does) that film review may seem like criticism, but it's really about OPTIMUM play.
• Throw into triple coverage was just no good. Odom is all alone on a crossing route. AR's body language tells you he also saw that throw was a no go. So, that's both good and bad. It's not as if he didn't see trips, and he did look at a deeper route briefly, but the third decision would've been to check down one more level to Odom instead of resetting for the bomb. Although the throw itself was actually pretty good.
• 11 personnel, numbers work out everywhere. ETN always gets to the second level so fast that angles to him are consistently bad. And there he goes. Finishes it off with a crafty back turn to get the last half-yard for the TD.
• AR puts a dude on skates so bad that he might not have touched him despite being within a foot. AR keeps are changing stuff. UF has the best turnover rate in the SEC. We basically don't turn it over.
• USC reads the inside zone properly, but one LB over-pursues, MJ bounces a loss into a giant gain. Henderson is blocking 20 yards away on a play designed to go away from him. He gets one more push that adds another 10-15 yards to the play. Lots of WRs/teams take this play off.
• AR makes another good read on a smash, but late and he throws it a little out of the window in the corner. FG.
• UF gets the ball back with 1:52 and one TO. "Mayday." BN has not figured this out yet. Especially today, things are rolling. Run first, two yards, USC calls TO. Hmmm...Beamer not very timid despite UF going up and down the field. Counting on "scared money"?
• Get numbers, gash a run to the 46, 1:42 and a TO.
• Barber replaces Tarquin after false start. We had a monster outside zone run set up but LG gets driven all the way back to the handoff, now it's 2&17 and clock goes to :40. USC lets clock run (??)
• Barber now at LT, Tarquin back in. Barber gets sniped, sack, 3&19. No TO's by anyone.
• AR runs through THREE guys and gets OOB, then we get all that weird FG-not FG not Hail Mary stuff.
• 24-6 at HT, and doesn't seem like the one-sided affair it is. But we get an immediate turnover.
• Roll-out again, defender straight to AR. This scheme is just done at this point. AR is under fire immediately, all teams play it the same. AR can't dodge this time, 2&8 goes to 3&16.
• AR executes the quick game, Henderson gets some yards for the FG. Buuuuuut, missed.
• Pistol/offset I, Odom in the FB spot, runs across formation for the TD. This set is on film on runs, USC goes for it and leaves Odom alone.
• Burke is running a run play, everyone else is running a pass play. Showing that the youth is strong on this team.
• Jet sweep look again, fake it, D reacts to it for the first time all year. AR keeps right up the middle vacated by D flowing with jet sweep.
• AR happy feet (generally NOT a problem, this is rare), misses two open receivers, then throws late laser off RP's hands because timing is off now. Another missed FG.
• Rollout right AGAIN, from the 4. AR does have time this time, the entire D bails to the sideline because this is probably the most predictable part of the offense after all this time. Incomplete.
• 3&9, light box. That is just plainly a bad idea against this O. DE is too far upfield, MJ hero-balls a first down with a filthy inside-out move at the end. Mentions that in the Trask era we couldn't even run the ball against four and five man boxes. Now, six is the magic number. You go with six, you are probably losing.
• Another rollout, defender is predictably there, AR fires a face-breaker to an open RP.
• 8/11 on 3rd down, after all the nitpicking above.
• AR checks into run on 3&6 against six man box. But we get a whiff by an OL on a combo and LB comes untouched in the cutback, he was the only guy in the picture in that lane.
• 9 man box now as UF is getting conservative (12:30 in Q4.) MJ still gets 4 against it. Still 31-6 at this point.
• 11 personnel, all good all around, but ball is behind WR. Ball in front, one man to beat. But the behind ball is still catchable, that is a straight drop.
• USC 90 puts LG on skates ala Dexter on the D thread, sack on a coming deep shot.
• AR puts a good ball on MJ after PA for 1st.
• Split-zone look, Burke follows Odom release. DB is in panic mode, HOLDING Odom as MJ runs within a couple of yards of him for a TD.
• Kitna runs RPO, Kitna throws a perfect ball on WR.

Running game excellent, passing game had moments of everything. Q1 was essentially perfect. Sputtered afterwards, however, definitely progress. We are seeing new stuff, much better execution, new players, and more. We are leaving points every week, but they are there to be had with improved personnel, calls, and execution. But basically no DOA drives, quarters or halves like we had not that long ago. The O has been ahead of the D all year, of course, so not the same dramatics we have seen on that side for a few quarters now. But the promise is there and it's improving every week.

 

FWIW: I have listened to most of the podcast, and as suspected there is a much deeper dive on AR. If I ever make it home tonight I'll update here, along with some additional offensive info.

Spoiler alert: If you believe AR is a good candidate for the NFL right now, you'll get some ammo to support your position. If you believe he is not ready, you will get some ammo to support your position. It seems like a fair critique to me.

 

A little more from the marathon podcast:

• The big advantage going in was UF rushing vs. horrid USC run D. 374 yards, three (essentially) 100 yard rushers, 6.9 YPC. Getting just run on like mad is more demoralizing than a team lighting you up in the air. It's just a different type of disheartening.
• OL actually had some bad moments. A late third down run that made a lot of us screech was actually there for a BIG play, but C got smoked at the snap back into the play.
• FTR: BN is 11 heavy at all times. However, up until now it's been 40/30/30 or so (11/12/other), but lately it's been more like 60/20/20. 12 shows back up in the RZ, and things bog down. James would like that 12 slash to move down to about 10%.
• The run game is "savant" level. We "steal" yards regularly with tweaks to things on film. At this point it's almost impossible to figure out what's coming, especially now that Pearsall is in the jet sweep. He immediately commanded respect from the D, D's just weren't reacting to Henderson in that role. (My note: on a downside, Henderson's conditioning might fall off now, since he ran about 30 miles per game on those looks...)
• 12 has a bunch of issues. The bunching narrows lanes, we are still simply missing some talent resulting in some physical problems like the C losing too much, execution while obviously improved is still a WIP, and AR just does not perform as well in this set. (My note: this is why I say MJ is a magician, and ETN is closing hard; those guys sniff tiny little spaces like they were created in a lab for that task.)

AR section -- I imagine this will be what a lot of us want to hear.

• 55% completion; 65% on target rate; and the usual accolades about his almost peerless athletic ability. Also go ahead and throw out that if he's going to go R1, then go (this is Allen's take)!
• But what about actual NFL outlook. 55% would be the lowest completion percentage for any QB who actually succeeds in the NFL. 65% on target rate is a major red flag. That's not even close to NFL-friendly. However, average throw depth (another big time NFL stat) is good.
• Hooker: these numbers are so much better. However, Hooker throws almost exclusively to wide open guys from clean pockets. That ain't the NFL.
• Even NFL PRACTICE windows are small. Imagine trying to improve accuracy when EVERY day is a long series of failures. Wouldn't you rather have a college off-season and then one more season of college windows to improve this? Trying to work this out on an NFL team is a BOLD move. Not impossible, but certainly not optimal.
• Two examples: 1) Justin Fields. College numbers above were extraordinary. Well into the 70's with completion percentage, 80% on-target. Can't hit those windows now (yet.) 2) Lamar Jackson: 59% completion rate in college, but 79% on-target. IOW, his WR's were letting him down. And LJ is the only current example of a successful NFL QB with a low completion rate. James is not so sure that even a R1 pick is in AR's best interest due to the aforementioned dynamics. The second contract is the biggie. Is this the best way to secure that? Which route maximizes the long-term prospects?
• Allen brings up Josh Allen and Daniel Jones. Poor completion percentage in college also. Is JA a unicorn? Or is this the new NFL QB? James points out that JA and DJ also had on-target rates in the 70's. He feels the combination of those two stats is the red flag.
• My note: both of these guys are clearly AR fans. They constantly qualify that these criticisms aren't meant to be shade. They just try to be clear-eyed even while being superfans.
• James points out that there was likely an injury that everyone papered over early. Again, not nefarious, that's probably a good thing (the lack of transparency.) (My note: I believe we will learn there was a legit injury after the season.)
• When AR is in a set/play he is comfortable in, that's when NFL skills explode. But there isn't a large suite of that right now.
• The ball placement is still a problem that just has to improve. James is not worried about the missed reads, that is where a guy in game 12 or so should be.

Back to O in general.

• We called for all MJ/ETN, and got it. That's a shame for NW, but it's a tough biz.
• Whittemore didn't get snaps even in Rudy time. James feels this must be a pure "fit" issue, because he put good stuff on film last year. Got open, caught everything, seemed to be in rhythm. We'll probably never know why this didn't work and the actual answer is probably anything but nefarious, but it's intriguing. And growing pains of burning a bad product to the ground out of necessity to get it back on track.
• 6-8 roll-outs to the right that are at this point basically wasted plays. At least roll-out BOTH ways. Miami makes the roll-out deadly with Tua, but it's not predictable. Or better yet, just ditch it for now. It's just trash.
• D was in man on the fake. Which is actually the RIGHT call. Do you think your punter is going to hit a pass against man when your actual QB can't? Good luck with that. But we didn't actually play the man. Burney even seems to locate the right guy pre-snap, but just didn't go with him. But it was a pretty good play, kudos USC.
• Blocked PAT: no actual breakdown by "gamechangers", that guy timed the snap to a degree that will likely never happen again. But combined with the fake and the high/dropped snap, ST appeared to be a disaster. Also gave up a big PR, and Henderson muffs a punt. Pearsall replaced Henderson. This is sketchy because RP is so important to the offense. However, the roster is almost unbelievably deficient in open-field wigglers. And the margin of error for now is so slim. So this isn't nearly as wacky as it would be in a year when you're contending. Allen is concerned there is no replacement for RP on O. James feels that we need to maximize the margins. Both agree neither view is a slam dunk.
• MAYDAY O: lots of "scared money" in these sitches this year. Not a lot more than I mentioned in the OP, except that the 3rd down here was actually not a give-up, it was there for a chunk. This is where C got blown up. But there are still a lot of problems here that need to get better. Recall that AR actually almost lost the ball here too. And that 3rd down WAS a give-up, but outmanned the whole USC secondary for the first. Then a 63 yard FG?? Mihalek looks like he might have a 55 yarder in him, but 63?? This was just a ludicrous consideration. Both still found this weak.
• BN is actually good at getting guys in the game. And emptied the bench. Let guys get their shine. But let Engel throw a pass maaaaaaayyyyyynnnnnnn!!
• NW in a weird spot, in for Rudy time after being such a big part for years with walk-ons and such. Not shocking he may not have been locked in. We are hoping for a positive NW moment before it's over.
• Zip and Shorter are both 12 guys. You choose: BN being "forced" into 11, or BN adapted nicely to circumstances?
• Vandy prep: Cornelius built Vandy for $1M (what's that now, the leg section of a new weight room?) at age 79. Vanderbilt was a shipping and railroad magnate. He was the richest American at his death.
• Vandy O: 53/47 run/pass. Not much TE. 38% PA. 12 personnel 50% of the time. That was a killer against us early. A lot of no-huddle. Most passes behind the line. 53rd in rushing. Competent in most categories. No obvious weaknesses. Vandy should be a step-up from USC offense. Davis will be a focus. 113 passer rating against pressure. 73 rating against 8 deep. 102 targets for Sheppard. DOUBLE him. Will we be tactical and play directly to the opponent? This is a bigger challenge than both USC and TAM because they are a competent unit with a couple of standouts.
• Vandy D: leading sacker has 3 (Powell has 3 in two games.) LB is their engine. 31% pressure and a lot of time it's 6. 20% man, which gives up 121 passer rating. 103 passer rating in zone. So, pass D is bad. Vandy 113th against run. BIG EDGE in run, like USC. They have an even worse 3rd down D than.....wha?? This is just a bad D. All of the 14.5 points are coming from this side of the matchup. Expect pressure and zone, and not much good of either. If we can't pass in this game, that will be troubling.
• Penalties is a push. They are disciplined. BTW, UF #1 in the country in penalty yards per game. UF trending way up in most metrics, Vandy has stayed flat.
• Both take UF, Allen 41-21 and James 45-13. James thinks Vandy is game but that people are sleeping on the transition underway at UF.

Another hour of non-Gator stuff minus the Vandy breakdown in the middle. I actually love this part. Oregon/Washington, Brady on the 9 route, A-A Ron berserking, game picks, Jimbo overpay, Drake Maye might be #1 pick except he has another year, lots more. I won't recap since it isn't Gatorcentric, but I encourage you to listen if you can carve out the time. Lots of talk of game theory and expected value and a little more light-hearted. This part starts with about 80 minutes left.

Also, the last half hour is basketball.

 

This summary is my paraphrasing of James and Allen opining. I have my own thoughts, and I do sprinkle some in and of course colors my own paraphrasing, but mainly this is what the podcast says, not me.

I happen to mostly agree with James. Improving accuracy in NFL camps and games sounds like a losing proposition to me. But I also agree that if some team is going to give me many millions to try that because I flash Lamar Jackson/Josh Allen all-universe skills, perhaps I go. There is no lock answer, IMO.