I was really hoping the late foul was not by design. Someone crunch the numbers on this one. It seems like an awful decision. This is the aspect of analytics I will hate. Play basketball.
74 -69, with only 1:19 left we only had 3 team fouls, "announcers say you have to foul here", and we foul a few seconds later, they in bound, and we get a defensive stop on a missed shot, 74-69, with 53.7 left, we only have 4 team fouls. Lane turned the ball over after a very long video review...Florida Atlantic maintains possession on turnover by Lane. Casleton is on the bench with 1 foul.... FAU in bounds, we attempt to trap, but FAU gets a timeout, and they are out of timeouts. 2 free throws for us, and then FAU gets the ball back 74-71, 50.7 left, only still only 4 team fouls -- we attempt to trap and let them get the ball up the court, and then foul them. 44.2 left, only 5 teams fouls. Still 74-71, they inbound it, clock gets down to 39.6 and we have our 6th team foul. Still not shooting free throws. 74-71, 38.7, finally our 7th team foul, and foul one of their best FT shooters, he goes to line and makes both 76-71. (casleton finally re-entered the game)
To me that was crazy to foul and put the guy on the line. They had 16 seconds left, play great D and take your chances.
If a team shoots 70 percent from the line, the expected return on a 1-1 is roughly 1 point(1.2). Their offensive efficiency that night was probably north of that. But walk through the scenarios. If they took a three, the expected return was 1.6 points given they were shooting 55 percent. And on top of that, add in the chance of an offensive rebound, or a foul on the shot. Then you basically have to hit a three the other way to tie if it’s the last few seconds, and either you shoot quick and they have a shot coming back, or wait and they foul up 3 and you lose that way. So for this game, mathematically it was the right play IMO.
down 76-71, we bring the ball up the court, no timeouts, and didn't even run an offensive set, took an ill-advised three and missed. They only had 5 team fouls with 20 seconds left, basically a foul free 2nd half.
The bigger question is what is Lane doing in there in crunch time after not playing most of the game, and why in God's name is he handling the ball?
I thought a quick two on a drive to the basket would be best because it would leave plenty of time for a three if they could deny the inbound. But, that means they would have to play hard nose defense and I'm not sure that's in this teams DNA yet.
I am for whoopin' dat azz in the first 39 minutes so the other team has to worry about analytics in the 40th minute.
not saying we executed it well, I was yelling at the TV when we didn’t double him to force it out of his hands before fouling. but the basic approach I agreed with.
Yeah we grabbed the wrong guy. iirc Golden had a "talk" with the officials, stating that a foul had occurred earlier.
I don't know. UF was up 10 points or so and Castleton was killing it. Then all of à sudden they started throwing prayers shots that don't hit anything. What makes it worse is they don't go back and play defense.
